Hello covers brothers, looks like the end of the season is near and sadly NFL football will be overs soon. I was hoping we could have a productive discussion in this thread before the games this week about where the lines sit and different scenarios that are likely to play at. Specifically, I think there are creative ways to approach betting in the next two weeks, especially if you have pending futures on any of the four remaining teams.
Full disclosure, I have the following futures pending:
Eagles to win the conference 5 units (+525) to win 26.25 units
Chiefs to win the SB 10 units (+375) to win 37.5 units
Eagles to defeat the chiefs in SB 1.5 units (59/1) to win 90 units
This works out nicely in my favor, as I do believe that the Chiefs will win at home today and the Eagles, barring any major catastrophe and dependent completely on the health of Jalen Hurts should win at home against the Commanders. I think that there is a good opportunity to middle both games and come away with a nice profit by teasing both the games in both directions. I see the Eagles winning the game, but certainly not by more than 12 points. I see the chiefs winning the game, but certainly not by more than 8 points. Lets take a look at the previous matchups between the Bills and the Chiefs. As you can see, they are almost always decided by 1 score and the number falls below 7
Hello covers brothers, looks like the end of the season is near and sadly NFL football will be overs soon. I was hoping we could have a productive discussion in this thread before the games this week about where the lines sit and different scenarios that are likely to play at. Specifically, I think there are creative ways to approach betting in the next two weeks, especially if you have pending futures on any of the four remaining teams.
Full disclosure, I have the following futures pending:
Eagles to win the conference 5 units (+525) to win 26.25 units
Chiefs to win the SB 10 units (+375) to win 37.5 units
Eagles to defeat the chiefs in SB 1.5 units (59/1) to win 90 units
This works out nicely in my favor, as I do believe that the Chiefs will win at home today and the Eagles, barring any major catastrophe and dependent completely on the health of Jalen Hurts should win at home against the Commanders. I think that there is a good opportunity to middle both games and come away with a nice profit by teasing both the games in both directions. I see the Eagles winning the game, but certainly not by more than 12 points. I see the chiefs winning the game, but certainly not by more than 8 points. Lets take a look at the previous matchups between the Bills and the Chiefs. As you can see, they are almost always decided by 1 score and the number falls below 7
The way I see it, the best way to tease these games is to do the two following 6 point teasers:
Commanders +12, Bills + 7.5 or 8 (-120)
Eagles Pick'em, Chiefs +4.5 (-120)
I will contend that I understands that the teasers aren't your traditional WONG teasers in the sense that you are teasing through 0 with Kansas City. However, there are instances where this has proven to be profitable. In the scenario where someone has a chiefs SB future, it works out quite nicely to be able to hedge with a Bills +8, because if the Bills win outright (which certainly could happen with this current Bills squad) then you at least make some $ back and reduce the losses on your KC futures.
1. If you really like KC to win this weekend and then go on to beat the Eagles in the SB (whether you have a chiefs future or not), the best bet IMO is to do the above teasers, hoping that the Eagles with but not in a blowout (which is what I think will happen, certainly don't see them winning by more than 11) and then hoping that the Chiefs win but by less than 8. In my situation, since I have a ticket Philly to beat Chiefs ticket that pays 59/1 = 90 units, and I have a Chiefs SB future that pays +375 on a 10 unit wager, if I want to be perfectly hedged for the super bowl, there are some lines on perfect SB matchups. As it stands, Chiefs beating the Eagles is a +325 so throwing another 10 units to win 32.5 units would make the most sense for me at this point
Eagles win conference + SB = 26.25 units + 90 units = 116.25 units
Chiefs win SB = 37.5 units + 32.5 units = 70 units
plus whatever you decide to wager on the two separate teasers.
What is everyones thoughts on playing both of the teasers, basically hoping to middle both games? Obviously anything can happen but I don't see either game as a blowout and I think that it is likely that the Chiefs and Eagles will win the games. Obviously buffalo beating KC would be worst case scenario for me....
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The way I see it, the best way to tease these games is to do the two following 6 point teasers:
Commanders +12, Bills + 7.5 or 8 (-120)
Eagles Pick'em, Chiefs +4.5 (-120)
I will contend that I understands that the teasers aren't your traditional WONG teasers in the sense that you are teasing through 0 with Kansas City. However, there are instances where this has proven to be profitable. In the scenario where someone has a chiefs SB future, it works out quite nicely to be able to hedge with a Bills +8, because if the Bills win outright (which certainly could happen with this current Bills squad) then you at least make some $ back and reduce the losses on your KC futures.
1. If you really like KC to win this weekend and then go on to beat the Eagles in the SB (whether you have a chiefs future or not), the best bet IMO is to do the above teasers, hoping that the Eagles with but not in a blowout (which is what I think will happen, certainly don't see them winning by more than 11) and then hoping that the Chiefs win but by less than 8. In my situation, since I have a ticket Philly to beat Chiefs ticket that pays 59/1 = 90 units, and I have a Chiefs SB future that pays +375 on a 10 unit wager, if I want to be perfectly hedged for the super bowl, there are some lines on perfect SB matchups. As it stands, Chiefs beating the Eagles is a +325 so throwing another 10 units to win 32.5 units would make the most sense for me at this point
Eagles win conference + SB = 26.25 units + 90 units = 116.25 units
Chiefs win SB = 37.5 units + 32.5 units = 70 units
plus whatever you decide to wager on the two separate teasers.
What is everyones thoughts on playing both of the teasers, basically hoping to middle both games? Obviously anything can happen but I don't see either game as a blowout and I think that it is likely that the Chiefs and Eagles will win the games. Obviously buffalo beating KC would be worst case scenario for me....
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