Posted:
#1
Alright guys I'm not going to toot my own horn here, I do not post my picks generally, but after 4 weeks of winning ALOT on the NFL I want to share some picks. I have a 70% winning percentage this year including Parlays, but I don't have proof so it doesn't mean a thing. Anyways take my plays or don't, doesn't matter to me, lets see if I can keep it going!
Also please note I DO NOT play every game, but I will make picks on almost all of them. If you have questions or want my reasoning I'm happy to share, below are VERY non specific reasons. Overall though I think people over think NFL betting and read into the lines too much, don't let Vegas tell you what to do.
KC - 2.5 - No Jake Locker, offence cant hang with KC D and KC will put up enough points to cover, get it before it foes to 3+
Baltimore ML - come on, sure they have had a rough year, but I look at the value of this bet, it is too good to pass up though this will be a smaller bet for me.
JAX +12.5 Not playing this, but if I did I'm on JAX, STL is the worst team they have faces this year, they arent losing by two TDs, still with all the other great games this is a lay off unless I get drunk
NE +100 - just do it, keep playing them until they prove you shouldn't. Cinci looked bad last week, NE looked good, back the best QB in this one and don't overthink it.
Seattle -2.5 After a poor showing last week (even though they pulled it out) they are back to magic this week, feel fairly comfortable in this one, though of course IND has the potential to win, I just dont see it happening.
GB vs Detroit - Clearly a shootout, its at Lambeau so I like GB, but homefield advantage is number 5 on my list of what matters. I would take this game on the ML in a two-three game parlay (more on parlays later)
NOpk - Did you watch last week? Bet on them until they give you a reason not to, not an easy win though.
PHI vs NYG - Straight up LAY OFF, two teams that have choked, but two with big upsides, if you think you know whats gonna happen in this game you are kidding yourself, Eli wants a win bad, PHI has played better this year, just lay off please!
Car vs AZ - Thats a lay off for me, I like CAR though, much better offense.
SD vs OAK - I have to throw out that I'm biased, but I see SD winning, OAK wont go too easy but in the end rivers is throwing too many TDS for them to win, I would take the -4
Denver -7,8,9 - Got them at -7, they are the lock of the week on ML, no brainer here, I see a two TD win,
HOU +7 - Schaub has something to prove, SF is out of sorts, but overall I dont like the game, two volatile teams, lay off for me
NYJ vs ATL - Not confident in ATL, they should not be favored by that much, lay off, even on the ML, could be a huge upset.
Questions welcomed, also there are great 2-3 game parlay options this week, I will post mine when I make the decision, but at -335 Denver will be in just about all of them
0
Hot Forum Topics
