Posted:
#1
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers has been running the table thus far, but now it seems as though he'll have to do so without Jordy Nelson, who suffered a rib injury in the early stages of the victory over the Giants. Though Rodgers struggled for one-and-a-half quarters,
The Packers just seem to match up extremely well against the Cowboys on this side of the ball. Dallas' one defensive strength is being able to stop the run, but the Packers have shown that they don't need a consistent ground attack to be successful. Christine Michael will pick up a decent gain here or there, but Green Bay will primarily move the ball via Rodgers' excellent passing, which the Cowboys aren't equipped to stop.
DALLAS OFFENSE: Everyone talks about Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott, and rightfully so. They've been amazing despite being rookies. However, the engine behind the Cowboys' scoring attack is the offensive line, which is one of the league's best. Aside from Doug Free, there aren't any liabilities for the Cowboys up front.
That may not be the case in this contest, however. Left tackle Tyron Smith suffered a knee injury when the Cowboys were inexplicably trying to run up the score in a meaningless Week 16 game against the Lions. Smith is likely to play, but what if he's not 100 percent? The Cowboys already had a weakness in Free trying to block Nick Perry, and if Smith isn't fully healthy, he may have some issues versus Julius Peppers, who had a terrific performance last week.
If Smith is healthy, there's no doubt the Cowboys will put up some points, as the Packers have obvious weaknesses in their secondary. Green Bay isn't bad against the run, but containing Ezekiel Elliott is not like putting the clamps on Paul Perkins and Rashad Jennings.
RECAP: I don't understand this spread. Let me get this straight... a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start is favored by 4.5 points over the best quarterback in the NFL, who happens to be absolutely on fire right now? Uhh... what?
I made this line Cowboys -3, and I thought that might be kind of high. Dallas has a horrible home-field advantage; the team was 5-3 against the spread as hosts this year, but was lucky to cover versus Philadelphia and Baltimore. Meanwhile, the Packers, under Rodgers, have been terrific in dome environments for the most part, covering five of their previous seven indoor games. Given that this contest will be played in perfect conditions, Rodgers will be able to torch the Cowboys without having to worry about the wind or rain.
The Cowboys also aren't as good as their record indicates. They really had just one convincing victory over a true playoff team all year, beating the Steelers in the final seconds. They defeated the Packers in Week 6, but Green Bay had a Thursday night game coming up, so it wasn't completely focused. Since Thanksgiving, the Cowboys nearly lost to the Vikings (and would have if Adam Thielen didn't muff a punt), dropped a game to the overrated Giants, barely snuck by the Buccaneers, and then thrashed the Lions, a team that ended its season on a four-game losing streak because of countless injuries. I'm not saying the Cowboys aren't a good team, or anything, because they are. However, their record is inflated, and this spread happens to be as well.
Besides, we're getting 4.5 points with Rodgers, for crying out loud. How often does that happen? It hasn't occurred yet this year, though it's happened twice in the playoffs the past couple of years. Rodgers, despite being banged up in battles against the Seahawks and Cardinals, was able to cover large spreads in those contests. Rodgers is completely healthy now, and his offensive line is as well. I don't see why he couldn't win this game, or at least keep it close. Even if the Packers are down, Rodgers can certainly engineer a back-door scoring drive
0
Hot Forum Topics
