Teams with a 3-1 record in week 5, winning 3 in a row are only 4-12 ATS when favored by more than 5 and less than 7 points. That is the exact same situation that happened to New Orleans last year when they started the season 3-1, went to Arizona in week 5 and lost outright as a 6.5 pts chalk. I believe that Carolina this season is a little bit better than Arizona last season, and the Saints are just about as good as they were last year at this point of the season. The Saints are actually 1-8 ATS with a winning percentage of .750 as long as not huge favorites of more than 9 points. They also lost straight up in 6 of those 9 games. Carolina 28 New Orleans 24. I am stil going to buy half point here to get Carolina +7 as my play.
Seattle is not known for good performances when playing in the Eastern Time Zone. 1-3 teams getting more than a touchdown are 0-14 straight up as long as they are not losers of 3 straight games.The Giants surprised many with wins against Eagles and Cardinals, but thats what Giants do. They love to play well when they look to be down and to play poorly when they are on an upswing. Which Giants team will show up this week, the one that won against Philadelphia or the one that lost at Washington. No one really knows that, but even that team that lost to Washington should be able to edge Seattle in a 1PM game. NYG 27 Seattle 17. No play.
1-3 teams that play against another non winning team, but better than 1-3 are 17-11 SU and 20-7-1 ATS. And when they are favored, they are 7-1 SU and ATS. Cincinnati won an emotional game last week as they beat a team that dominated them in the past, and they did it after trailing 17-3 at the half. They are in a letdown situation here and their opponent is desperate. 2-2 teams in week 5 are 20-36 ATS against losing teams as well as 16-32 ATS if their opponent lost last game. Jaxonville 27 Cincinnati 21. Jacksonville moneyline is the play.
1-3 teams getting 2 to 9 points are 30-14 ATS. When they are off two or three losses, and on the road, they are 11-0 ATS and 9-2 SU. Arizona is playing well for a 1-3 team, and Minnesota is playing like a 0-4 team. Some will tell us that Minnesota could have been a 4-0 team, which is true, but they are 0-4 for a reason. They have no clue how to finish the game. Last week they had an early lead, once again, and they lost again. Four losses in such a fashion will hurt your confidence and moral big time. Winless teams facing .250 teams are 0-3 SU and ATS when favored, if the .250 team lost 2 or more in a row. Arizona 24 Minnesota 21. The play is Arizona +3.
1-3 teams of two or more losses are also 12-0 ATS is they are not a double digit dog.They are also 6-0 SU and ATS if they lost two in a row, and their opponent is a winning team with at least 1 loss, comming off of a win. The Chargers are 6-13 ATS in last 20 when hotter and better than the opponent (better=better record). The Broncos are 9-1-1 ATS as home dogs against hotter and better teams. Last season San Diego went to Oakland to face a desperate 1-3 Raiders team. They were favored by 6 and lost the game outright. I can see that scenario happen again this season, this time in Denver. Denver 28 San Diego 24. Denver +4 is my play.
1-3 teams losing two or three in a row are 6-2 ATS and SU but 0-2 SU and ATS if opponent is off of a loss. However, these teams were never favored, and Philadelphia is favored at Buffalo. As for 3-1 teams, they are 0-6 SU and ATS if underdogs of 1.5 to 3 points. The Eagles are just too talented to go 1-4. I am not saying that it can not happen. I am saying that the odds are in their favor here. 1-3 teams were favored against 3-1 teams only once in week 5 and the 1-3 team won a close one. I expect that to happen here as well. Philadelphia 24 Buffalo 21. No play.
1-3 teams not losing two or three straight are 3-13 SU and 4-11-1 ATS as pkem to +5, including 1-8 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road. But I just dont have a good feeling about the Colts after playing hard against better opponents in two straight prime time games. I will not be surprised if KC wins this game, but I can say the same thing about Indiana winning this game.The best thing is to avoid this game all together. No play.
I am completely ignoring two more games this week, as I have no clue who will cover the NE/NY and SF/TB games. New England should win but not sure about the cover. As for the SF/TB game I believe that TB is the better team but they played two improtant games in a row and could be in bad spot this week going across the country against a surprising SF team.
3-1 teams underdogs of 1.5-3 points are 0-6 SU and ATS. So, Tennessee in not a good position here. They lost last three as underdogs against teams with less wins and with worst form. Pittsburgh won 7 in a row against better and hotter teams. Pittsburgh 17 Tennessee 14. No play.
3-1 teams not winning 3 in a row are 4-12 ATS laying 5.5 to 7 points. Houston won against Pittsburgh last week and it was one of their biggest wins in their frenchise history. They also won against Oakland last season. But thats exactly a situation they did not like in the past. When they play against revenge, after a win, and before a revenge, they are 0-7 SU all time and 0-6 ATS in last 6 as long as it is not weeks 16 or 17, weeks that have been meaningless for Houston in the past. Houston 28 Oakland 27. The play is Oakland +6.
Stil working on SNF and MNF and if I like something I will post it here. Good luck all !!!
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