My first 2024 NFL action.

I have watched HOUSTON win total go from 9.5 ov -106 to -130.

I pulled the trigger.

1.    2% of bankroll OVER 9.5 -130

2.    1% of BR on WIN SUPER BOWL  16:1

3.    1.5% of BR  WIN AFC 8.5:1

4.    5% of BR  WIN AFC SOUTH +105

Good luck.

You risked 9.5% of your bankroll on those futures; you must be very confident.  I have no opinion.

Thx DBW....same to you.

I feel like wager 4 gives me a free roll on 1,2,3

The Texans imho may be the most balanced team in the league as CJ continues to ascend towards Maholmes status.

JC, I did some stat work and I think HOU is good enough to go on the road and beat KC in the playoffs (if that matchup does occur).  My Passing Power Index had Stroud as 27% more efficient than Mahomes last season.

OTOH, lots of money has poured in on HOU futures.  HOU was +150 to win the AFC South at DraftKings on 2024-03-15:

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/afc-south-division-odds-texans-jaguars-colts-titans

Thx DBW.

OTOH, lots of money has poured in on HOU futures. HOU was +150 to win the AFC South at DraftKings on 2024-03-15:

In this case the trend is your friend...;-)

Your bets look like you're a Houston Texans homer. Betting with your heart and not with your head.

I would mix your bets up. Add the Chiefs that could 3 peat the super bowl. Also bet on the NFC team that you believe will reach the super bowl. Then you can cover both the AFC side and NFC side for the super bowl.

@PepeFrog

 Not a Texas homer and NEVER bet with my heart. If the Texans take down AFC South then hedging the other

wagers will be a pleasant opportunity.

I like it. I’ve made them my first play of the season in Week 1 at IND

Texans had 7 close wins last season, 3rd most of any team.

Not likely they get that many close wins again this season. They might have to improve, win 2 or 3 mores games to get the same record as last year.

They also had the biggest improvement in wins last year of any team. This is not an overly good indicator. Alot of that improvement  was winning all those close games.

Texans do look like a very obvious choice.

What does happens at times is these type teams tend to regress then in 2 years when they aren't  such an obvious choice they make a good run in the playoffs.

I wouldn't change your picks over this info but might be worth watching how they do early in close wins/losses.

You can't really go off last season Dog. Guys I've  followed on YouTube who are very good and know the players and how they perform game to game have said prior to playoffs the KC receivers who were terrible during the season were replaced and since then the passing game was hugely improved.

Your rating are most likely in a big part based on those terrible receivers.

If we base Mahomes on how Brady did then we can assume he won't 3peat. After Brady repeated he did not make the conf finals the next year.

And didn't win another SB for like 10 years, although he made 2. The first SB loss was 3 years after his repeat.

2005 season he lost to broncos in divisional round then 2006 lost to Colts in conf finals after blowing I think was a 21-3 halftime lead.

claw: appreciate this.

It is precisely those close wins that urges me, With another year under imo a very SOLID head coach, whose team reflects

his personality,no "I" in team approach, I agree close wins will regress to larger wins. Do not go to sleep on their defense.

Always had a soft spot for teams that find a way to win the close games,says alot about their coaching and in most cases I would be

careful of backing a rookie QB who had a sensational rookie year, this CJ is the cornerstone of a potential dynasty situation. Mahomes type

qbs do surface and if spotted can lead to PROFITS...................................gl

@theclaw

Don't compare Mahomes with Brady , The difference is Mahomes wins games and Suoerbowls in a team sport. Brady was just lucky to be on the winning team but he sucked most of the time in these games he had so many chances that's all it ever waa,plus being on the better team with the tougher defense.

If you can't see Mahomes is different and the reason why they win take up another sport .

True, and since I am not a fundamental handicapper I pay little attention to rosters.  First-round pick Xavier Worthy could also provide a boost to KC's passing OFF.

Also, with a year's worth of film to analyze sharp DC's might find something to somewhat hamper HOU's passing OFF.  I haven't placed a wager yet, but I have a query which favors HOU-IND Under in Week 1.

@DogbiteWilliams

 First-round pick Xavier Worthy could also provide a boost to KC's passing OFF

KC led the league in most dropped passes last year, one of highest in NFL history I believe.  That will have to see some positive regression, can't be nearly as bad as last year.  Worthy and Hollywood will open this offense back up a la the Tyreek days.  KC finished 8th in offensive efficiency last season, the only time not in top 5 in Mahomes era.  They'll be back in top 5 and very likely top 3 this year 

I disagree, Brady's teams were always amoung the very best in pts per plays. When he went to Tampa they were not good in pts per plays but finished 2cd with Brady.

You don't do that without being a super efficient QB.

And Mahomes has pretty much copied that exact same formula.

Mahomes is doing all the same things Brady did.

We'll  see if he copies Brady after a repeat.

Exactly, both dropped passes and many fumbles by  those receivers who were replaced later in the season.

Once they did this the passing game and offense became much more efficient.

But that doesn't  mean another team can't beat KC.

I would imagine KC will be pretty pumped to 3peat and go down in history as the only team to do it.

No doubt it will be very difficult to do. They will need some injury luck and need to stay focused as every team is coming to get them.