My picks and why

Atlanta + 11.5 and over 55 The Saints remained undefeated this season with one of the more impressive comebacks in recent NFL memory last Sunday, storming back from 21 points down with 22 unanswered fourth-quarter points to beat the Miami Dolphins on the road, 46-34.

The Falcons on the other hand were dealt only their second loss of the season on Sunday, but it was a nasty one as they were manhandled by the Dallas Cowboys, 37-21.

The high opening total for this game is a direct reflection of the offensive potential in this game, or more likely the defense’s inability to stop all of that offensive firepower on the field.

But unlike the past years where it was mostly due to Brees and his core of receivers in the passing game, this year the Saints are getting unprecedented production out of their running game. The Saints three-headed backfield of Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell have helped them earn the NFL 3rd-ranked rushing offense in the early going, rushing for 156 yards per game so far.

Atlanta and Ryan are no slouch on offense by any means, but they are having their struggles this season and it’s mostly due the fact that teams have decided to stack the box in order to stop running back Michael Turner. The Falcons are currently ranked 23rd in the league in rushing (117.7 ypg), which is a far cry from the numbers they had last season.

I must admit I’m a little surprised by the large 10-point spread in this game. Sure, the Saints have earned that much respect, but this is still an NFC South rival game and I don’t think the Falcons defense is as bad as they showed against Dallas. But the wager I’m making is on the over. The Saints had four turnovers last week . They can’t even stop themselves when they try. I’m taking the over of 54.