Posted:
#1
Seattle Seahawks +3 1/3 - 5 UNITS
Seattle Seahawks ML - 2 UNITS
UNDER 48 - 1 UNIT
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HANDICAPPING & ANALYSIS:
real simple....DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS.....if it's a shoot-out, Seahawks will lose (which is why I lean toward the Under)
Manning is Manning but he has not faced a defense this fast and aggressive all year....Sherman and Seattle secondary among the best of all time....they will shut down his passing options and Manning's immobility in pocket will really hurt Denver
the cold weather venue also favors the defensive running team (Seattle) and not the finesse offense (Manning)
Marshawn Lynch BEAST MODE.....huge weapon for Seattle that is flying under radar...they will pound the ball with this beast on the ground and keep Manning on sidelines by wining time of possession battle
Manning also has a history of choking in big games ....only SB he has won was against the pathetic Rex Grossman and Bears
finally do not disregard the line movement in this game....Vegas opened the line at Seattle -2 .....in the last two weeks there has been a four point swing by the betting public making Denver a -2 fave today.....America is in love with Manning...he walks on water and can do no wrong......could Vegas be that wrong???? the oddsmakers thought that Seattle was better team
BETTING STRATEGY & STRUCTURE:
Seattle bought up to plus 3 of more is the safest best play because, while i can see Denver winning by a FG at the end, there is no way I see Denver blowing out this defense
next best bet is Seattle ML (for the outright win)....good value here
for correlation plays like parlays and teasers you want to link Seattle and the UNDER......(i.e., must be a low scoring game for Seattle to win, if high scoring then my entire betting rationale that defense wins championships falls because it means Seattle defense failed to show up)
BOTTOM LINE:
I was a Seattle non-believer all year until the SF game and fact they made it to the SB......they are the better team, period.
Final Score prediction: Seattle 23-19
enjoy the game everyone
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