I really think injuries are going to catch up to GB tomorrow, specifically on the offensive side. The reason GB has been winning is because of the godly play by Rodgers being able to barely outscore teams, but I think it's all going to catch up to him tomorrow.
The line started at -4 at most books and it's moved up to -6 in quite a few books. Coupled with the fact that they just signed a receiver, Max McCaffrey off of the practice squad and I think Vegas knows that Nelson and Adams are much closer to questionable/out then to the probable side. Without a shadow of doubt in my mind, if this was a regular season game, both Nelson and Adams would be guaranteed to be out.
172 out of 400 receptions were thrown to either Jordy or Adams and 26 out of 40 touchdowns.
In the last 5 weeks this is what teams have scored against the Packers:
27 by the Bears (Terrible offense)
25 by the Vikings (Terrible offense)
24 by the Lions (Average offense)
13 by the Giants (That fucking boat trip and kind of a shit offense)
31 by the Cowboys (Good offense)
Even without Earl Thomas, the Seattle defense is going to be a HUGE upgrade over Green Bay's injury riddled defense. Falcons are going to score at will tomorrow, and I doubt that they will let up at any point in the game.
I know Cobb has had a pretty damn good couple of weeks, but I don't think a combination of Cobb and Allison is enough to keep up with the Falcons high powered offense at home.
Green Bay has had a good ride, and they'll score 20+ points tomorrow but I think their offense falls short.
Falcons by a touchdown.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I really think injuries are going to catch up to GB tomorrow, specifically on the offensive side. The reason GB has been winning is because of the godly play by Rodgers being able to barely outscore teams, but I think it's all going to catch up to him tomorrow.
The line started at -4 at most books and it's moved up to -6 in quite a few books. Coupled with the fact that they just signed a receiver, Max McCaffrey off of the practice squad and I think Vegas knows that Nelson and Adams are much closer to questionable/out then to the probable side. Without a shadow of doubt in my mind, if this was a regular season game, both Nelson and Adams would be guaranteed to be out.
172 out of 400 receptions were thrown to either Jordy or Adams and 26 out of 40 touchdowns.
In the last 5 weeks this is what teams have scored against the Packers:
27 by the Bears (Terrible offense)
25 by the Vikings (Terrible offense)
24 by the Lions (Average offense)
13 by the Giants (That fucking boat trip and kind of a shit offense)
31 by the Cowboys (Good offense)
Even without Earl Thomas, the Seattle defense is going to be a HUGE upgrade over Green Bay's injury riddled defense. Falcons are going to score at will tomorrow, and I doubt that they will let up at any point in the game.
I know Cobb has had a pretty damn good couple of weeks, but I don't think a combination of Cobb and Allison is enough to keep up with the Falcons high powered offense at home.
Green Bay has had a good ride, and they'll score 20+ points tomorrow but I think their offense falls short.
Line is 6 and you say falcons by a touchdown. If I'm understanding that would be too close to call
Yeah, but most lines are too close to call, we just think we know better than Vegas, but we really don't. There's a reason why the best handicappers only win like 6 out of 10 bets.
I just always imagine some chinese math wizards in the basement of some Vegas hotel running their computer algorithms to come up with the perfect spread lol.
Anyways, my biggest bet for tomorrow is the Bovada prop, Falcons and Pats in the superbowl exact matchup for +130. I also did some parlays with NE money and Falcons to cover the spread.
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Quote Originally Posted by ILPRATO:
Line is 6 and you say falcons by a touchdown. If I'm understanding that would be too close to call
Yeah, but most lines are too close to call, we just think we know better than Vegas, but we really don't. There's a reason why the best handicappers only win like 6 out of 10 bets.
I just always imagine some chinese math wizards in the basement of some Vegas hotel running their computer algorithms to come up with the perfect spread lol.
Anyways, my biggest bet for tomorrow is the Bovada prop, Falcons and Pats in the superbowl exact matchup for +130. I also did some parlays with NE money and Falcons to cover the spread.
Yeah, but most lines are too close to call, we just think we know better than Vegas, but we really don't. There's a reason why the best handicappers only win like 6 out of 10 bets.
I just always imagine some chinese math wizards in the basement of some Vegas hotel running their computer algorithms to come up with the perfect spread lol.
Anyways, my biggest bet for tomorrow is the Bovada prop, Falcons and Pats in the superbowl exact matchup for +130. I also did some parlays with NE money and Falcons to cover the spread.
i dont understand why every one thinks its betting against vegas all the time. its vegas setting the line where they think they will get equal action and hence vegas making the juice. vegas doesnt pick sides only wants equal action
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Quote Originally Posted by tonychiza:
Yeah, but most lines are too close to call, we just think we know better than Vegas, but we really don't. There's a reason why the best handicappers only win like 6 out of 10 bets.
I just always imagine some chinese math wizards in the basement of some Vegas hotel running their computer algorithms to come up with the perfect spread lol.
Anyways, my biggest bet for tomorrow is the Bovada prop, Falcons and Pats in the superbowl exact matchup for +130. I also did some parlays with NE money and Falcons to cover the spread.
i dont understand why every one thinks its betting against vegas all the time. its vegas setting the line where they think they will get equal action and hence vegas making the juice. vegas doesnt pick sides only wants equal action
i dont understand why every one thinks its betting against vegas all the time. its vegas setting the line where they think they will get equal action and hence vegas making the juice. vegas doesnt pick sides only wants equal action
In a perfect world, Vegas would love to just collect juice, but in the real world there is always a consensus side, and sometimes a massive consensus on one side because people believe that Vegas set the line wrong. If people didn't think that Vegas didn't set the line wrong then why would anyone bet? When you place a bet you are essentially telling Vegas that I think you set the line wrong by X number of points so I'll bet on that team.
You are right in Vegas will move that line to counteract that consensus to get to a perfect world where there is equal action, but in most cases Vegas is on a side because if one side wins vs the other side it will affect their profit margin. If you are on the side that would make Vegas sportsbooks less money, then you are betting against vegas.
I've totally digressed. The point I was trying to make in my post above is that more often that not people will think Vegas set a poor line, but in actuality the line is typically set perfectly. If you don't believe me start betting basketball where there are a lot more games and a much bigger sample size and you will realize that Vegas tends to be spot on in their spreads. Being able to set the right spread is the reason Vegas is able to get action on both sides.
Perhaps, you would have preferred if I said "we just think we know better than sportsbooks" instead of Vegas.
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Quote Originally Posted by sunster19:
i dont understand why every one thinks its betting against vegas all the time. its vegas setting the line where they think they will get equal action and hence vegas making the juice. vegas doesnt pick sides only wants equal action
In a perfect world, Vegas would love to just collect juice, but in the real world there is always a consensus side, and sometimes a massive consensus on one side because people believe that Vegas set the line wrong. If people didn't think that Vegas didn't set the line wrong then why would anyone bet? When you place a bet you are essentially telling Vegas that I think you set the line wrong by X number of points so I'll bet on that team.
You are right in Vegas will move that line to counteract that consensus to get to a perfect world where there is equal action, but in most cases Vegas is on a side because if one side wins vs the other side it will affect their profit margin. If you are on the side that would make Vegas sportsbooks less money, then you are betting against vegas.
I've totally digressed. The point I was trying to make in my post above is that more often that not people will think Vegas set a poor line, but in actuality the line is typically set perfectly. If you don't believe me start betting basketball where there are a lot more games and a much bigger sample size and you will realize that Vegas tends to be spot on in their spreads. Being able to set the right spread is the reason Vegas is able to get action on both sides.
Perhaps, you would have preferred if I said "we just think we know better than sportsbooks" instead of Vegas.
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