Good afternoon covers family and Happy Holidays. Let’s go 2 & 0 posted here. Hit USC pretty good last night for a decent amount. Crazy game it was. I started capping this particular game last night. My numbers on this game are a little inconsistent. A few models favor LAC and a few favor NE. This is a very public play. Over 90% of the $ is on the LAC. They have to win today to get into the post season. DVOA favor the LAC on both sides of the ball, I get that. PFF grades the LAC stronger on both sides of the ball as well. But another model I always go to only have the LAC favs by 3.5 %. This particular model hits @ a very high rate. The WOW factor have the Pats much higher than the Chargers @ home today. The spread value for the Chargers is only + 0.2 % , compared to + 4.00 % for NE. LAC EPA on defense overall is - 0.05 compared to NE’s + 0.06 in today’s particular situation. Their both negative EPA in offense in todays particular situation. Drake Mayes numbers are actually better than Herbert’s numbers in today’s particular situation. Another model I go to have the LAC’s favs by 5.775 pts, that’s under the 6 pts I have . Rookie QB’s are 25-13-2 in the L 40 tries on non Sunday games . NE is 7 - 1 ATS L 8 vs LAC & NE is 7 - 3 ATS vs the Chargers in NE. My favorite stat here is both of these teams are slow and methodical. The LAC only average ( 58.3 ) plays a game and the Pats only average ( 64.0 ) plays a game . That’s home & away stats. Sets up ripe for the dog in my opinion. This isn’t a large play. Even if I was up, this wouldn’t be a larger size play because, the numbers are split in my capping. Pats + 6 GL to all of you…
Watch
Hot Forum Topics
