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New England Patiots Wager Question

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Posted: #1
I want to place a wager on the Patriots to go 19-0. The odds of them going 19-0 are at +950 currently. Would I be better taking the +950 or taking them every week on the moneyline, including playoffs and Super Bowl? Thoughts on this would be appreciated.
 
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Posted: #2
You'll make way more money...by betting them on the ML and rolling that money over every week. (ex. 250 to win 100, next week 350 to win whatever and so on...)
Money Management and discipline is the key to success in sports investing
 
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Posted: #3
Anyone else want to comment on this as well?
 
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Posted: #4
I would do it week to week on the moneyline. First off, the date to get to 19-0 is so far off and too many things can happen to screw it up. Second there might be one or two games where it is a good idea to skip betting on the patriots winning that particular week.
 
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Posted: #5
they will go 14-2 without edelman
 
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Posted: #6
+950 sounds too low for them to go undefeated. I think the odds of them running the table are much less.

As the 2nd poster says, if they really WERE to go undefeated, you could bet the money line each week and roll those winnings into the next week's bet.

However, I ran the numbers and if you started at Week 10 and went through Week 17 of the regular season, plus 3 rounds of playoffs, you probably couldn't match a 9.5:1 payoff. I ran the model assuming a money line of -350 -- which is what this week's line currently is, and is close to the Patriots season average.

If you started with a $100 bet in Week 10:

Week 10
-350 $100.00 $28.57 $128.57
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
 
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Posted: #7
ML Bet Win Cumulative
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
 
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Posted: #8
Oh well, the table isn't work. But here is the Super Bowl, rolling over all of the winnings (at an assumed ML of -350 per week) into one bet:

Week 20
-350
Bet: $1,234.37
Win: $352.68
Cumulative: $1,587.04 

Obviously this doesn't include the juice. So it would be much easier -- and a much bigger payoff -- to go with the +950 bet.
 
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Posted: #9
 
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Posted: #10
Please note that I would NOT recommend making that bet, as I think it's not going to happen. :)
 
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Posted: #11
don't do it
 
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Posted: #12

I am not a Patriots fan, I just think the Patriots would love to shove it to Goodell. Who on the schedule would worry you?

Bills - No

At Broncos - Denver looks awful on offense, so no.

Eagles - Maybe if the offense would get going, but if Foxboro I like New England.

At Texans - I don't think they can keep up with Brady.

Titans - Not a chance

At Jets - Possibly.

At Dolphins - Probably the best chance for any team to beat New England.

Patriots will be a one seed in the playoffs.

If the playoffs started today: Bills, Steelers, Colts, Broncos, and Bengals would be in. I feel Pittsburgh would have the best chance to beat New England but can't see them outscoring the Pats.

Who would beat the Pats from the NFC? Seattle is two games out of the playoffs and their o-line is garbage. Atlanta, GB, Cardinals may have the best chance, but still would take Brady and company.

Like I said, I am not a Patriots fan at all, but like stated above I think the Patriots are trying to shove it to Goodell and go 19-0.

 
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Posted: #13
Steelers will beat Pats in Afc title game, Pittsburgh is getting the best time for bye week, they will go in as wild card and blow through Afc post season.. It reminds me of 07' when pats were undefeated and played a pesky NYG team in regular season only to be upset by same team in Super Bowl.. Pittsburgh only team that really could've beat pats up to this point(lousy kicker at that time and first game as defense under Butler, so yeah Gronk had his way) but they are starting to find an identity, and yes without Edelman and Lewis, becoming thin.. Better off taking Pittsburgh to win Super Bowl at like 20-1.. Only fitting it be in SF just to shove it in those niners faces as well.. Pittsburgh beats Carolina 34-29
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by SuperGuido:

Steelers will beat Pats in Afc title game, Pittsburgh is getting the best time for bye week, they will go in as wild card and blow through Afc post season.. It reminds me of 07' when pats were undefeated and played a pesky NYG team in regular season only to be upset by same team in Super Bowl.. Pittsburgh only team that really could've beat pats up to this point(lousy kicker at that time and first game as defense under Butler, so yeah Gronk had his way) but they are starting to find an identity, and yes without Edelman and Lewis, becoming thin.. Better off taking Pittsburgh to win Super Bowl at like 20-1.. Only fitting it be in SF just to shove it in those niners faces as well.. Pittsburgh beats Carolina 34-29


Im not going to lie...but after looking at the futures and odds. I can DEFINITELY SEE a BENGALS PITTS AFC championship. I am a huge pats fan and edleman out is huge for us. Pitt is the only team in the AFC i truly fear. Denver does not have the offense against an underrated pats defense. And i still dont trust Dalton. Pitt has the experience and history. Given with the threads generated on this forum about the cowboys being the most complete team in the NFC...i am looking into super bowl match up futures between the Steelers and Cowboys, if not the most well known rivalry in NFL. 

I think you're on to something. Will do more research
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by djmont:

Oh well, the table isn't work. But here is the Super Bowl, rolling over all of the winnings (at an assumed ML of -350 per week) into one bet:

Week 20
-350
Bet: $1,234.37
Win: $352.68
Cumulative: $1,587.04 

Obviously this doesn't include the juice. So it would be much easier -- and a much bigger payoff -- to go with the +950 bet.

No.  This is incorrect  You made an error.

If you assume a money line of -350 for the Patriots remaining 10 games (seven in the regular season and three in the playoffs), rolling it over each week is the better way to go vs +950

Assume an initial risk of $100:

Game 1:  Risk $100.00;    Win $28.57;   Total = $128.57
Game 2:  Risk $128.57;    Win $36.73;   Total = $165.31
Game 3:  Risk $165.31;    Win $47.23;   Total = $212.54
Game 4:  Risk $212.54;    Win $60.72;   Total = $273.26
Game 5:  Risk $273.26;    Win $78.07;   Total = $351.34
Game 6:  Risk $351.34;    Win $100.38;  Total = $451.72
Game 7:  Risk $451.72;    Win $129.06;  Total = $580.78
Game 8:  Risk $580.78;    Win $165.94;  Total = $746.72
Game 9:  Risk $746.72;    Win $213.35;  Total = $960.06
Game 10: Risk $960.06;    Win $274.30;  Total = $1,234.37

Rolling it over, you have $1,234.37 in your pocket.  You started with $100, for a net of $1,134.37

$1,134.87 is larger than $950.00


 
 
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Posted: #16
I should add that as we all know, the moneyline most certainly won't be -350 for all ten games, of course.  In fact, it most likely won't be quite that high in the Super Bowl and in the playoffs, or against the Broncos in their upcoming game in Denver.  So you will have to estimate what you think it will be for each game and adjust accordingly.  I suspect +950 isn't all that far off from what it would be if you rolled it over yourself, as I've shown above.
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