NFL 11/17: Plays On Two Elite Defenses

NFL YTD 7-4 +1.2 units

2* 0-1 -2.3 units

1* 7-3 +3.5 units

2* Broncos -2

Denver comes home after two tough road games including a mere two point loss at KC.  The Broncos defense is one of the best in the NFL.  Atlanta has had a soft schedule lately with two games each against the Bucs and the Saints, each of which has bad defenses.  Bo Nix has thrown only two picks the last seven games and is a good game manager.  Denver has lost two in a row and may be more highly motivated in this non-conf game than the Falcons.

1* Steelers +3 1/2

Baltimore has an elite offense and Pittsburgh has an elite defense.  That alone is a formula to take the points with a better D but the Ravens defense is just terrible and Wilson has gotten Pittsburgh's offense clicking.  Ravens have given up over 25 in six of their ten games.

Opinion only:
Patriots +5

 Denver is favorite bet this week also

@Griswold1

 I have the line in Denver so tight that it’s a no bet for me. But without question Denver should have the advantage. As far as the way my handicapping goes I have ATL as a losing team on average even though they have a winning record if that makes any sense.

Bal/Pit will be a no play also but gun to my head it’s Baltimore without question. The thing about Baltimore is that they win big. When they get out ahead they pour it on and when Lamar plays with a lead the offense can do anything they want. 

Of the three games you’ve listed, NE is my favorite and at +5 is a play for me. Just my two cents. GL 

@Griswold1

 A couple of things scare me as a Pitt fan heading into this week...  First the Highsmith injury... Last time he missed games teams ran all over Herbig who is very good pass rusher but small and got pushed around on the run game.. Colts ran 80% of the time at him with good results..  Injury in secondary last game were   covered up by some poor throws by Daniels last week ...Their  replacements Pierre and Sutton got beat a few times but got lucky with drops and missed passes..  Something feels off this week with Pitt as a long time fan just cannot shake it...  Can only hope the Addition of Smith at DE will replace herbig on running situations will help...  Russ was OK last week  but not his best game..  Pitt has had some tackling issues this week will be a huge test for them.. Something about this game worries me hope I am wrong.. Plus the line stinks.. IMO.. 3.5 in a game usually decided by 3...  GL..  Loved Pitt last week... This week well pass for me..

Good luck Griswold.  

@Griswold1

BOL