Ok sir, we are both from L.A., and I appreciate that you use the word alumnus...
so allow me to respectfully play devil's advocate.
POINT NUMBER ONE-
I have seen this particular point across many gamblers on this site. Let me tell you something from experience... I am more successful when playing a COMBINATION of totals and sides. If I were to pick 5 sides, there are going to be 2-3 that I am very certain of.
Of those 3, I will likely lose 1 on an average week. I will lose 2 on a bad week, 0 on a great week.
HOWEVER... if you look at the totals, and really look at both sides of the ball for both teams and match them up in your mind's eye, you will begin to see some mismatches that are just as strong as your strongest side plays....
So, I know you're worried about totals, you think it's totally random, a lot of people have admitted this concern. But try to take teams Under who don't have QBs, also try to take "domination" games Under. Take competitive games (27-24) Over, and "shootout" games (2 good QBs) over.
POINT 2 regarding your picks....
It's not that some or all of them won't come through, but let's look at the glaring mistake you are making...
You are representing two road favorites...
You are building yourself a bulletproof house of cards by not questioning your assumptions..
For example "the Saints are dunzo"... are they? Did they do nothing this year to get better? The reason why teams "surprise" the public every year is because the public want the game to be decided by 1-2 players. It is not. This game, more than any other, is decided by 44 players in almost equal part.
This is the ultimate team game. You need all 5 offensive linemen working in unison to afford your QB time to throw. You need your defensive front getting pressure to give your back end chances to make contested plays.
You obviously need your DBs to make plays and you need your Wideouts to catch the ball.
Jimmy Graham is a good player to have of course, but does he equal Max Unger and Stephone Anthony? Not in my opinion. I believe the Saints got the better of that deal.
Drew Brees is one of the most accurate QBs in the history of the league. Last year they lost Darren Sproles and the c.o.p. back role and it hurt their scheme. Now they have CJ Spiller in that role.
They drafted Andrus Peat at Tackle out of Stanford.
They are likely going to get Jairus Byrd healthy this year. That is a HUUUGE upgrade over what they had last year. Playing alongside Byrd is going to help Vaccaro break through his sophomore slump. If you don't think Brandon Browner is going to make this team better than Corey White did last year, you didn't watch either last year.
Be careful when handicapping to make sure you know EVERY matchup because while I am not discounting that the Cardinals cannot win, you should be looking for LOPSIDED match ups.
My side plays would be:
Steelers (Garapollo v. Roethlisberger)
Jets (really good team with an under rated QB and a much improved offensive system)
Ravens+4 (I think they are the better team)
HOWEVER I want to let you know...
My ACTUAL PLAYS for week one so far...
Steelers +2
Jets/Browns Under 41 (and pray for no pick sixes, I am allowed 10.25 points a quarter. I am going to be praying for 0-3 points in one Quarter.)
Dolphins/Skins Under 44 (two really good defenses square up, I don't see a ton of points here, maybe 21-13)
Cowboys/Giants OVER (two really good offenses I'm hoping for an explosive start, 14-14 first half)
Everything is a gamble. I think my biggest lock is Jets/Browns Under, how are these two teams going to score? The Browns ran the ball more than any other team last year, will that change with Kyle Shanahan gone? I don't think so. I think they will try to protect their QB by running the ball as much as possible.
The Jets scare me here, I think they can score, but there also will be an emphasis on less turnovers. I believe Devin Smith from Ohio State is going to get a couple of shots deep, and I think Geno will connect at least once. I see the Jets scoring 21-24 and I really want the Browns to score 17 even.
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