NFL 2018 Week 1 --- The Return of Uncle Ernie

The man ... The myth ... The legend ... Uncle Ernie is back 

I am going to attempt start handicapping from week 1 to get more handicapping practice.

These are just my initial thoughts to get the juices flowing. Once I see these ramblings , I might change my mind and go the other way.

As the saying goes defense wins champoinships and defense does travel and a quality defense is usually reliable.

My first thoughts will go with what I think will be the better defensive teams, like I would rate them in the top ten.

My second pass handicapping will be based on differential between the two teams. These types of games will usually be an average team against a below average team.

Looking at my initial card, I have leans with the Vikings, Jags, Panthers, and Rams. 

Based on differential, I have a lean with the Packers and maybe the Titans.

I am also considering a teaser with the Saints as an outside possibility, maybe adding the Packers into the mix.

As for the upcoming Falcons ( - 2.5 ) Eagles contest, I am going to officially pass on this wager. I do have a lean towards the Eagles against the spread and the moneyline as a possibility.

As this is a handicapping thread, I am going to go thru some steps.

The line is relatively small and with 3 points being the most probable margin of victory, this turns into who do you think will win the game. I think this is one of the important betting decision questions that should be asked. I think the Eagles will win the game. I think they are the better team and are playing at home. These teams are not in the same division so that is not a factor.

Now on the flip side, what advantages to win the game do the Falcons have in this game, like a better defense or running game ? They do have an emotional factor where the Falcons really want to win just to beat the Superbowl champs.

This is also not the typical Thursday night game where you just take the better team. It is too early in the season for that.

There will be plenty of betting opportunities. Also, keep in mind that you control your bets and they do not control you.

Well I was about to go thru every game for week 1, but there are a lot of games where I dont know which side to go with and actually dont care. So I will focus on the games where I have more focused thoughts.

So lets start with Niners (-6) Vikings

One of my fundamental leans is to go with a good defensive team at home. Overall I like the Vikings and I think they have the better chance to win this game. I also expect Jimmy G to have an overall good season for the Niners. Another thing I expect is this game to end up closer than it should be. So I going with the moneyline of Vikings (-260). I want to avoid the annoying back door cover.

I have seen some Vikings game where there was a low margin of victory. This observational memory is just in my head, and I don't know if it is perception or closer to reality. At first thought, I was going to take the Vikings and give the points. Then I got nervous about the pick because that means the Viks basically have to win by a touchdown. I am working on ways to help me decide to go with an ats or a moneyline play. In addition, this early in the season I just want the win.

BOL uncle Ernie on the season 

Steelers (+4) Browns

I need to ponder this game some more and check on player availability.

Titans (+1.5) Dolphins

I am fading the Dolphins.

Jags (+3) Giants

This is what I call eyeball handicapping. I am a numbers crunching guy to make my selections, but it is too early in the season for that.

The Jags are the better team. The Giants should be better than last year, but I still put them at a below average NFL team.

I think the Jags can win the game by at least a field goal and if it turns out to be a field goal margin, this game is a push.

Pick Jags (-3)

My next pick is Panthers (-3). I like teams that are at home and the Panthers usually have a good defense.

The following is a post game review of the performance numbers. I want to see how my metrics match the winning team.

The first thing of note is my lean aligned with the winning team and cover. Also of note, the point spread did not factor into the cover. So in your betting decisions, start with who you think will win the game. Stop chasing the line.

These are my personal performance formulas, so you know they are brilliant.

My favorite calculation is inertia, which is an offensive efficiency type of rating. The Falcons had an inertia of 0.92. The Eagles had an inertia of 1.89. To give you some perspective add 0.33 and use the grade point average scale.

During the offseason, I came up with a formula involving inertia and points scored. I call this metric dynamo.

The Falcons had a dynamo rating of 2.89. The Eagles had a dynamo rating of 5.42. So that matched the winning team.

Another metric I examine is def pass rating. The Falcons had a rating of 1.64. The Eagles had a rating of 3.27. Lower numbers are better. I will make note of this occurance. This is probably just an anomaly as it is just one game.

I also have a formula you other technical handicappers can use. It is called POT ( short for potential ).

POT = pf/(10-yards per play)

The Falcons had a POT of 2.22

The Eagles had a POT of 2.81

My personal formula of inertia was originally designed without factoring in points. My first step in factoring in points was to develop the dynamo formula. Originally I was just going to add in red zone attempts, but upon further review I needed to add in the field goal factor. For the moment I have come up with a formula I call SO ( short for scoring opportunity ).

It is ( Red Zone Attempts + Field goal attempts )/( Red Zone fails + Field Goals Missed)

At the moment I dont know if I will combine this with POT or incorporate it into inertia.

The Falcons had a SO of 1.75.

The Eagles had a SO of 4.00.

Thanks chizzler. I usually handicap from weeks 4 to 14, using my numbers. This season, I am starting in week 3 with my number crunching handicapping. Weeks 1 and 2 will be the eyeball test, concepts I believe in, and good old fashion guestimates. I am excited to see how Dynamo, POT, and SO fare in making betting decisions. These formulas are debuting this year. I already have confidence in my inertia calculation which is a major part of the Dynamo calculation. I am also curious how modern defensive passer rating compares to passing down efficiency. And Passing Down Efficiency is easier to calculate.

My handicapping method is to filter out certain games and then just go with the better team. Overall Vegas just wants equal action on both sides. In addition, their line is based on Vegas's perception on what the public's perception of the two teams to get equal action on both sides.

I forgot to add I am taking the Rams (-4) as an official pick.