Chargers +14 I know I am starting to sound like a broken record, but once again an inflated price tag is accompanying the Patriots. Rarely do you see a team playing as well as the Chargers getting two touchdowns in compensation for betting on them. They have covered and won six straight games and have shown so signs of slowdown. What is more rare is the notion that a team is getting 14 points, but arguably has the better running game and defense. But that’s what happens when a team’s bandwagon is as full as what the Patriots one has become. When a team’s bandwagon becomes full, they become priced for perfection (not the perfection of winning every game, rather bringing their “A” game to the field each time out). Any signs of a slowdown or playing below potential, and the inflated line are too much for any team to support. This is what has happened to the Patriots as their defense has regressed, leading to a 1-6 ATS in their last seven games heading into this game. Until linesmakers stop inflating their line in anticipation for a heavy following, I will continue to bet against them. There is no other team I would rather back going up against the Patriots than a team playing with as much confidence and double revenge on their mind.
Even with an injured Gates, and a less than 100 percent Rivers and Tomlinson, the Chargers can find success offensively Sunday. The Patriots defense has shown inconsistency in defending the running game. Their aging linebacking group has regressed in recent weeks and could have trouble with the athleticism and perimeter attack Tomlinson can establish. With Rivers getting better each week, he has been able to exploit an underrated group of receiving options that could allow the Chargers to establish a balanced attack. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers find more success offensively than expected. The Patriots defense is overrated, regressing, has problems masked by their offense, and has yet to dominate a solid offense in over two months.
There is not a defense in the league that I could say I like my chances against the Patriots offense. But there aren’t many defenses I would rather have matched up against them than the Chargers. Brady has shown the ability to be productive against blitzes and when teams rush only three of four. What he has shown a problem with is when opponents disrupt the pocket interiorly with the rush. There may not be a better pass rush in the league in making such happen. With the Chargers secondary playing at an elite level, expect this style of pass rush to curtail the Patriots passing game, and make them less productive compared to recent weeks. Although stopping the Patriots from moving the chains is near impossible, the Chargers having the best red zone defense in the league can prevent their drives from consistently ending in touchdowns, which significantly jeopardizes such a high spread from covering.
The Patriots are not the most fun team to bet against, but getting two touchdowns for betting on a team playing as well as the Chargers is simply too good to pass up. Expect their confidence, motivation for revenge and fundamental strengths to be enough to keep this one close and prevent the Patriots from running away with the game.
Chargers @ Patriots Under 47 Good value on the Under in this game, and is also a decent hedge for the health concerns of the Chargers three key players. If the Chargers want to have success offensively they are going to have to heavily rely on their running game, as expect Rivers and/or Volek to repeat last weeks performance may be wishful thinking. The Patriots defense has regressed, but can defend the pass well. The Chargers passing game is simply not strong enough or consistent enough to expect them to have the upper hand, or anything but complimentary to their running game. Much like the Chargers defense, the Patriots are stingy in the red zone. Expect the majority of the Chargers better drives to end with field goals.
The Patriots may have to rely more on the running game again this week, as the Chargers pass defense is playing as well as any in the league the last couple of months, and possess the strengths that have given Brady problems in the second half of the season. The Patriots have been Over machines predominantly because of the tempo their offense and ability to finish off their better drives with touchdowns at a high clip. With an expected slowdown in both facets (more reliance on their running game and matched up against the top red zone defense), the Patriots will have hard time matching their mean points in this game. I like Under.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Chargers +14 I know I am starting to sound like a broken record, but once again an inflated price tag is accompanying the Patriots. Rarely do you see a team playing as well as the Chargers getting two touchdowns in compensation for betting on them. They have covered and won six straight games and have shown so signs of slowdown. What is more rare is the notion that a team is getting 14 points, but arguably has the better running game and defense. But that’s what happens when a team’s bandwagon is as full as what the Patriots one has become. When a team’s bandwagon becomes full, they become priced for perfection (not the perfection of winning every game, rather bringing their “A” game to the field each time out). Any signs of a slowdown or playing below potential, and the inflated line are too much for any team to support. This is what has happened to the Patriots as their defense has regressed, leading to a 1-6 ATS in their last seven games heading into this game. Until linesmakers stop inflating their line in anticipation for a heavy following, I will continue to bet against them. There is no other team I would rather back going up against the Patriots than a team playing with as much confidence and double revenge on their mind.
Even with an injured Gates, and a less than 100 percent Rivers and Tomlinson, the Chargers can find success offensively Sunday. The Patriots defense has shown inconsistency in defending the running game. Their aging linebacking group has regressed in recent weeks and could have trouble with the athleticism and perimeter attack Tomlinson can establish. With Rivers getting better each week, he has been able to exploit an underrated group of receiving options that could allow the Chargers to establish a balanced attack. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers find more success offensively than expected. The Patriots defense is overrated, regressing, has problems masked by their offense, and has yet to dominate a solid offense in over two months.
There is not a defense in the league that I could say I like my chances against the Patriots offense. But there aren’t many defenses I would rather have matched up against them than the Chargers. Brady has shown the ability to be productive against blitzes and when teams rush only three of four. What he has shown a problem with is when opponents disrupt the pocket interiorly with the rush. There may not be a better pass rush in the league in making such happen. With the Chargers secondary playing at an elite level, expect this style of pass rush to curtail the Patriots passing game, and make them less productive compared to recent weeks. Although stopping the Patriots from moving the chains is near impossible, the Chargers having the best red zone defense in the league can prevent their drives from consistently ending in touchdowns, which significantly jeopardizes such a high spread from covering.
The Patriots are not the most fun team to bet against, but getting two touchdowns for betting on a team playing as well as the Chargers is simply too good to pass up. Expect their confidence, motivation for revenge and fundamental strengths to be enough to keep this one close and prevent the Patriots from running away with the game.
Chargers @ Patriots Under 47 Good value on the Under in this game, and is also a decent hedge for the health concerns of the Chargers three key players. If the Chargers want to have success offensively they are going to have to heavily rely on their running game, as expect Rivers and/or Volek to repeat last weeks performance may be wishful thinking. The Patriots defense has regressed, but can defend the pass well. The Chargers passing game is simply not strong enough or consistent enough to expect them to have the upper hand, or anything but complimentary to their running game. Much like the Chargers defense, the Patriots are stingy in the red zone. Expect the majority of the Chargers better drives to end with field goals.
The Patriots may have to rely more on the running game again this week, as the Chargers pass defense is playing as well as any in the league the last couple of months, and possess the strengths that have given Brady problems in the second half of the season. The Patriots have been Over machines predominantly because of the tempo their offense and ability to finish off their better drives with touchdowns at a high clip. With an expected slowdown in both facets (more reliance on their running game and matched up against the top red zone defense), the Patriots will have hard time matching their mean points in this game. I like Under.
Whenever I see one of your posts Buffet Gambler, I get hungry. I just live down the street from a casino that has a great buffet here in Henderson, Nevada.
I have loved your posts over the years as they are always thought provoking. I will not bet this weekend and just watch. I am looking forward to this AFC game and will be rooting for David against this Goliath. Off to lunch now and thanks for the writeups.
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Whenever I see one of your posts Buffet Gambler, I get hungry. I just live down the street from a casino that has a great buffet here in Henderson, Nevada.
I have loved your posts over the years as they are always thought provoking. I will not bet this weekend and just watch. I am looking forward to this AFC game and will be rooting for David against this Goliath. Off to lunch now and thanks for the writeups.
I think the lines on the NFC championship game appears efficiently set. If anything, there is some value on the Giants, but not enough to warrant a play in my opinion. I think the total is set right. With the apparent strucual change in football this year favoring the Overs, an Under has to be screaming value. This one is not.
Best of luck.
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Thanks fellas.
Pulse,
I think the lines on the NFC championship game appears efficiently set. If anything, there is some value on the Giants, but not enough to warrant a play in my opinion. I think the total is set right. With the apparent strucual change in football this year favoring the Overs, an Under has to be screaming value. This one is not.
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