NFL Conference Championship Ponderings and Plays

4-2-1 ATS in the playoffs so far. +7.4 units. 

EAGLES -5', CHIEFS -1' are the early lines. Let's goooooo!

Bills -1 for plus money 

Redskins +4.5 

@MRxKrazz

Could be Buffalo's year. Right now they're a slight dog, but that could change.

Be careful with Washington. They're on their fourth straight road game, Eagles are hosting for the fifth straight week, and I can't imagine Philly turning the ball over five times like Detroit did. 

Philly 28-20  KC 31-27

@PublicJoe

Hurts' left knee bears close scrutiny. 

@Boisestateand8

 EXACTLY, keep an eye on Hurts this week.  Also Philly cornerbacks....from what i can tell they are playing with some deep 2nd stringers in the cornerback position. 

On defense, Philly's best weapon is their defensive line....Washington should play up tempo all game and keep them from subbing.

On Offense, Philly's best weapon is Saqoun Barkely....Washington should stack the box and play man to man in secondary and dare Hurts to beat them through the air.

But but, i hope people keep disrespecting the Skins. 

Interesting to note that all four teams to advance this past weekend were outgained by their opponents. The Chiefs and the Bills were outgained by well over 100 yards. The Chiefs, Commanders and Bills were all outrushed as well. Only the Eagles had a significant rushing advantage, thanks to Saquon Barkley. And as usual in the playoffs, turnovers were the difference in three of the four games. None of the four winners committed a turnover, and the Commanders, Eagles and Bills had a combined 10-0 advantage. The lines have moved  to Eagles -6 and Chiefs -2, and one has to wonder if the Chiefs and Commanders will benefit from an extra day of rest, both having played Saturday. 

Matt Milano has been added to the Bills injury report with a hammy. Oddly, there's nothing on Jalen Hurts' knee.

EAGLES (-6) vs Commanders - Fourth straight road game for Washington, fifth straight home game for Philadelphia, BUT the Commanders do get an extra day of rest having played last Saturday. And since Week One the Commies have gone 4-2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS as a road dog this season. They do have injury concerns though, with G Sam Cosmi (their top offensive lineman) on IR and LB Bobby Wagner questionable. The Eagles have been as hot as any team since October, winning 14 of 15 SU, with that one loss being at Washington on December 22nd. QB Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion in the first half of that game and hasn't looked great since returning in the Wild Card round vs the Packers. Now he has a balky left knee after being injured last week against the Rams. He's not on the injury report but just how mobile will he be? And he's not Philly's only injury concern, with top defender Nakobe Dean on IR and two offensive starters, TE Dallas Goedert and C Cam Jurgens, questionable. Also, as hot as the Eagles have been they're just 3-5 ATS when favored by more than five points and they've been outgained in both of their playoff wins. As for Saquon Barkley, in the last game vs Washington he had three carries for 130 yards, but in his other 26 carries was held to two yards or less! It's also worth noting that playoff dogs have gone 7-3 ATS vs the closing lines this year, including 4-0 last week! And in this round the dog has gone 5-3 ATS the last four years, including 2-0 last season! No play as of yet, but right now I'm leaning Washington. 

Couldn't ask for better weather for these two games, although wind gusts could be an issue in Philadelphia. As far as the latest on the injury front, the two biggies for Washington are Cosmi and NT Daron Payne, and for Philadelphia it's Dean and possibly Jurgens, who is still listed as questionable with a bad back. And even though Hurts is off the injury report, he'll be wearing a knee brace, and if this WASN'T the NFC Championship Game I have to wonder what his playing status would be. 

B8 

GL on your play @Boisestateand8

3* Commanders +6 over EAGLES - Just not sold on Jalen Hurts. He just hasn't looked right since returning from his concussion and now he has a bum knee. Commies have been competitive in every game this season since the opener. I'll say 26-23 OT, Eagles.

5* Bills +1' over CHIEFS - Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 SU and ATS against Josh Allen in the playoffs, but I'm going against history here. As good as Mahomes is, Allen has outplayed him this year and is deserving of the MVP award. But one of the biggest reasons I'm on Buffalo here is RB James Cook. The Chiefs' defense has been leaking oil lately against the run, surrendering 202 yards (6.5 YPR) at Pittsburgh, and 149 yards (5.1 YPR) vs Houston last week. Cook has rushed for over 1000 yards (4.87 YPR), and has 32 receptions for another 258 yards this season and has been productive in the playoffs. He could have a big game here. Another reason to like Buffalo is their +27 turnover differential which is tops in the league, compared to Kansas City's +6. However, since Mahomes threw two picks at Buffalo back in October, they've now gone eight straight games without committing a turnover. That streak COULD end here, against a Bills defense that has 35 takeaways this season, including three last week vs Baltimore. The loss of S Taylor Rapp hurts, and CB Christian Benford may be out as well, but it just feels like this is Josh Allen's year. 34-21, BILLS!

@Fuse 

@Macwestie1 

Commies need a stop to start the second half of this one or it could be over early. Turnovers and idiotic penalties have been their downfall.

Wow! Just when the Commies get some momentum, another self inflicted wound.