Posted:
#1
Saturday
Seahawks +9
The Packers are not your typical 13-3 team, and one could argue there exists five AFC teams that are better than they are. However, throughout the year, books were also reluctant in giving the Packers too much credit, allowing them to be the most profitable team to bet on all season. Now come playoff time, there appears to be an over adjustment for a regular season hidden gem, as nine points is simply too many to lay on a team who has found regular season success with a lot of smoke and mirrors.
Favre has received most of the credit for the Packers turnaround this season, as some argue a structural change in his play, as he has drastically improved limiting costly errors. However, one could argue that this improvement was a product of his environment, and getting to play arguably the softest schedule in the league when measured by quality pass defenses. In fact, Favre has not played a quality pass defense in nearly three months when he put forth a sub par game against the Redskins. This trend will come to an end this week when Favre goes up against the best pass defense he has faced in months, a defense known to force quarterbacks into mistakes. Don’t be surprised if Favre reverts back to his recent troubled past and makes costly mistakes. Without the decisive edge the Packers usually have in the air, they will have to rely on their suspect running game more in this one- a running game that is heavily dependent on the success of their passing game. As mentioned last week, the Seahawks have one of the most underrated run defenses in the league, dominated Portis last week, and should make it hard for the Packers to establish much on the ground this week. A lot of talk has been on how detrimental the weather may be on the Seahawks, but weather that can curtail any offensive production is also counterproductive to large favorites. Expect the Seahawks underrated defense to continue to find success while Favre may revert back to the last couple of years.
During the season, I consistently mentioned that the Packers defense was not getting the credit they deserved for this year’s turnaround. Although this notion holds true, I also feel they have slowly regressed as the season progressed, a regression that has been masked by an incredibly soft schedule when measured by opponent’s offensive strengths in December. The Seahawks also have the luxury of avoiding the Packers best defensive asset- their run defense, as they are one of the most pass happy offenses in the league. The depth the Seahawks have at receiver (which gets deeper this week with the return of Branch) can allow them to avoid the top heaviness the Packers have at corner, and utilize multi receiver sets that take advantage of the lack of nickel back the Packers have.
Experience may also be a factor in this game, as aside from Favre, the Packers don’t have much. There team is young, may take time to settle in, or allow their emotions to work against them. The Seahawks may be inferior when on the road, winning just three games all season away from home. However, they have lost just one road game all season by more than three points.
Everyone appears to want a position on team that has covered more games than any other team this year, is consistently a heavily backed public team, and is well rested and playing at home. However, I will go the other way in this one, as the Packers smoke and mirror success and lacking and decisive advantages (expect them run defense) should keep this game closer than most think. Too many points for the Seahawks to pass up.
Jaguars +13.5
I am not sure how you could give one of the best and hottest teams in the league nearly two touchdowns, but once again, the Patriots are overvalued and priced for perfection.
The Patriots have been far from impressive of late, covering just one of their last six games. They have also not been blowing teams out as much as they were during the first half of the season, winning by 14 or more just three times during the second half of the season despite playing a soft second half schedule. The Jaguars have all the fundamental tools to keep this game relatively close, and the confidence and momentum to add support as well. The Patriots defense has shown weaknesses in recent weeks and is most vulnerable against the run. This bodes well for the Jaguars chances mainly for a couple of reasons. The obvious one being that they are heavily dependent on the run game, and have one of the most dominant running attacks in the league capable of exploiting any defensive weakness a team may have in their run stopping ability. The other two benefits are 1.) It negates the Belichick effect that can take its toll on young quarterbacks by limiting the role of Garrard. 2.) When the Jaguars have success on the ground, their drives are incredibly clock demanding, thus shortening games which can prove costly for a large favorite. Expect the Jaguars to find success on the ground, and wear down an aging front seven that has appeared to show their age in recent weeks. The Jaguars have a highly underrated passing attack that played below their potential last week. Expect a better effort this week from Garrard to compliment the running game. Being the best scrambler in the league will also allow him to negate the complex looks the Patriots will show him, and avoid costly errors.
There is no denying the Patriots possessing the best offense in the league. However success they are used to may not come to fruition this week, as their strength is countered by the Jaguars strength, their pass defense. Teams are finding better ways to limit Moss’s productivity, and it first comes with having a physical and talented corner to match up with him- which the Jaguars have. The Jaguars biggest weakness on defense is their run defense. However, the Patriots reluctance to exploit this facet makes them less vulnerable, while a definitive attempt to exploit it is welcomed, as a heavy dose of running is not customary for such a large favorite.
As I have been doing most of the year (unfortunately) I am going to bet against the best team in the league. The Jaguars running game should be the difference, as it will keep the Patriots offense of the field and give them fewer opportunities to establish a blowout. The Patriots should win, but will likely do so by a one possession score.
Seahawks +9
The Packers are not your typical 13-3 team, and one could argue there exists five AFC teams that are better than they are. However, throughout the year, books were also reluctant in giving the Packers too much credit, allowing them to be the most profitable team to bet on all season. Now come playoff time, there appears to be an over adjustment for a regular season hidden gem, as nine points is simply too many to lay on a team who has found regular season success with a lot of smoke and mirrors.
Favre has received most of the credit for the Packers turnaround this season, as some argue a structural change in his play, as he has drastically improved limiting costly errors. However, one could argue that this improvement was a product of his environment, and getting to play arguably the softest schedule in the league when measured by quality pass defenses. In fact, Favre has not played a quality pass defense in nearly three months when he put forth a sub par game against the Redskins. This trend will come to an end this week when Favre goes up against the best pass defense he has faced in months, a defense known to force quarterbacks into mistakes. Don’t be surprised if Favre reverts back to his recent troubled past and makes costly mistakes. Without the decisive edge the Packers usually have in the air, they will have to rely on their suspect running game more in this one- a running game that is heavily dependent on the success of their passing game. As mentioned last week, the Seahawks have one of the most underrated run defenses in the league, dominated Portis last week, and should make it hard for the Packers to establish much on the ground this week. A lot of talk has been on how detrimental the weather may be on the Seahawks, but weather that can curtail any offensive production is also counterproductive to large favorites. Expect the Seahawks underrated defense to continue to find success while Favre may revert back to the last couple of years.
During the season, I consistently mentioned that the Packers defense was not getting the credit they deserved for this year’s turnaround. Although this notion holds true, I also feel they have slowly regressed as the season progressed, a regression that has been masked by an incredibly soft schedule when measured by opponent’s offensive strengths in December. The Seahawks also have the luxury of avoiding the Packers best defensive asset- their run defense, as they are one of the most pass happy offenses in the league. The depth the Seahawks have at receiver (which gets deeper this week with the return of Branch) can allow them to avoid the top heaviness the Packers have at corner, and utilize multi receiver sets that take advantage of the lack of nickel back the Packers have.
Experience may also be a factor in this game, as aside from Favre, the Packers don’t have much. There team is young, may take time to settle in, or allow their emotions to work against them. The Seahawks may be inferior when on the road, winning just three games all season away from home. However, they have lost just one road game all season by more than three points.
Everyone appears to want a position on team that has covered more games than any other team this year, is consistently a heavily backed public team, and is well rested and playing at home. However, I will go the other way in this one, as the Packers smoke and mirror success and lacking and decisive advantages (expect them run defense) should keep this game closer than most think. Too many points for the Seahawks to pass up.
Jaguars +13.5
I am not sure how you could give one of the best and hottest teams in the league nearly two touchdowns, but once again, the Patriots are overvalued and priced for perfection.
The Patriots have been far from impressive of late, covering just one of their last six games. They have also not been blowing teams out as much as they were during the first half of the season, winning by 14 or more just three times during the second half of the season despite playing a soft second half schedule. The Jaguars have all the fundamental tools to keep this game relatively close, and the confidence and momentum to add support as well. The Patriots defense has shown weaknesses in recent weeks and is most vulnerable against the run. This bodes well for the Jaguars chances mainly for a couple of reasons. The obvious one being that they are heavily dependent on the run game, and have one of the most dominant running attacks in the league capable of exploiting any defensive weakness a team may have in their run stopping ability. The other two benefits are 1.) It negates the Belichick effect that can take its toll on young quarterbacks by limiting the role of Garrard. 2.) When the Jaguars have success on the ground, their drives are incredibly clock demanding, thus shortening games which can prove costly for a large favorite. Expect the Jaguars to find success on the ground, and wear down an aging front seven that has appeared to show their age in recent weeks. The Jaguars have a highly underrated passing attack that played below their potential last week. Expect a better effort this week from Garrard to compliment the running game. Being the best scrambler in the league will also allow him to negate the complex looks the Patriots will show him, and avoid costly errors.
There is no denying the Patriots possessing the best offense in the league. However success they are used to may not come to fruition this week, as their strength is countered by the Jaguars strength, their pass defense. Teams are finding better ways to limit Moss’s productivity, and it first comes with having a physical and talented corner to match up with him- which the Jaguars have. The Jaguars biggest weakness on defense is their run defense. However, the Patriots reluctance to exploit this facet makes them less vulnerable, while a definitive attempt to exploit it is welcomed, as a heavy dose of running is not customary for such a large favorite.
As I have been doing most of the year (unfortunately) I am going to bet against the best team in the league. The Jaguars running game should be the difference, as it will keep the Patriots offense of the field and give them fewer opportunities to establish a blowout. The Patriots should win, but will likely do so by a one possession score.
0
i guess it will be a game time decision for me.
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