Posted:
#1
Alright, so I usually ghost and win my own bets but this week I'm going to post and offer writeups. Exit this page now if you don't like to read because there will be lots to read on this post.
I don't really care if any of you disagree with my reasoning and I won't be taking the time to dispute claims.
Game 1: SEA @ ATL
- SEA has an excellent defense despite the loss of Earl Thomas
- We need to stop ignoring the fact that SEA gets literally every call their way.
- SEA has become a massive market in the past half-decade.
- ATL is not profitable and would not be a good story. Regardless of who wins GB @ DAL it would result in a blockbuster game for the NFL.
- Matt Ryan is a proven playoff choke artist.
- ATL had a relatively easy road to the playoffs; they own only a 1-2 record against playoff teams.
- SEA owns a 3-1 record against playoff teams including a regular season win against ATL.
The pick: SEA ML if you are feeling ballsy. If you're not then buy a half point and take SEA at -5.
Game 2: HOU @ NE
- Not much to say about this game. It should be a snoozefest, easy game for NE to advance. On paper NE should demolish HOU. The only way that HOU covers is if it is on a major network and the NFL has commercial interests in keeping this game close.
The pick: NO PLAY.
Game 3: PITT @ KC
- KC was my Super Bowl pick at the beginning of the year.
- KC has an incredible defense. I'd like to argue that they have a better defense than the NFL has seen in a long while. Dontari Poe, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, Marcus Peters, Eric Berry. It's going to be a long day for a less mobile Ben Roethlisberger (injured foot).
- Arrowhead is one of the loudest stadiums to play in. With their first home playoff game in years it is going to be nearly impossible.
- KC did get demolished in Heinz Field by PITT earlier in the year but they also beat OAK twice. OAK is a similar team to PITT. (Slightly less dynamic offense but slightly better defense).
- KC was 3-2 against playoff teams.
- PITT was 2-3 against playoff teams. (To be fair two losses came against DAL & NE).
The pick: KC will win this game unless outside commercial influences desire a Ben Roethlisberger vs Tom Brady matchup. That matchup would be huge for ratings and bring in a boatload more revenue than KC @ NE.
I have to choose KC in this spot, however, the line is trending upwards ever since Ben Roethlisberger was announced to be in a walking boot. Wait until about Wednesday/Thursday when he announces he will be playing and the line will drop back down.
KC ML is the pick.
Game 4: GB @ DAL
- DAL owns a 3-2 record against playoff opponents. 2 losses were against NYG. One of those wins was a 30-16 victory over GB on the road.
- GB owns a 5-2 record against playoff opponents. 2 of these wins were against DET.
- AT&T stadium is the largest capacity stadium in the NFL. It will be sold out for the game. Depending on the distribution of tickets, DAL fans could be overwhelming.
- GB held a T.O.P. advantage over NYG at 34:31 to 25:29. In GB Week 6 loss to DAL they won T.O.P. 30:10 to 29:50. DAL has dominated T.O.P. all year long and with GB's rushing attack likely to struggle without Ty Montgomery this game could be a low-scoring blowout. 21-6 type score.
- Behind the leagues best offensive line Ezekiel Elliott is likely to sideline the red hot Aaron Rodgers.
- In their 30-16 home loss GB had Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, and their DB corps was not composed of spare parts. Although Aaron Rodgers is playing well at the moment, it's unlikely that his elevated play with make up for the loss of those key components.
The pick: DAL is going to run all over GB in a game that is expected to be a shootout. DAL will play conservative and the T.O.P. slant will prevent Aaron Rodgers from developing a rhythm.
DAL -3. Buy the points to avoid losing if the game lands on 4.
The NFL will likely be thrilled with a SEA @ DAL matchup in the NFC Championship. The newest favorite team vs one of the most storied franchises in NFL history.
In summation, the picks are:
- SEA ML
- KC ML
- DAL ML
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