800.PLAYBOOK • www.PlaybookSports.com • page 13
3 BEST BET
Easily the ‘game of the week’ in the NFL finds a rematch of last
year’s Super Bowl, where the Chiefs edged the Niners, 25-22. In
the game, San Francisco surrendered a season-high 455 yards
and appeared to be a team set on becoming the first Super Bowl
team to three-peat. And as expected, a bevy of good numbers
supports each team in this prime-time showdown. For openers,
as the world knows, Andy Reid has been super in games when
his team has a full rest advantage, 22-4 SU and 16-10 ATS during
the regular season, but only 2-5 ATS the last seven games, and
1-5 ATS when his team sports a .700 or greater win percentage.
The better news is the Chiefs are 13-3 SU and 15-1 ATS in their
last sixteen games as road dogs, including 11-0 ATS in the last
eleven contests. It ties directly into QB Patrick Mahomes’ 11-4
outright and 14-1 ATS NFL career mark when taking points. And
we didn’t even mention KC’s 12-3 SUATS record in its last fifteen
games against teams from the NFC. Whew! Kyle Shanahan
counters with a 3-1 SUATS record when seeking revenge against
.900 or greater opponents and is 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS in
games when his team enters, averaging 144 or more rushing
yards per game, including 9-2 SUATS against .500 or greater
opponents. The bottom line is that when push comes to shove,
we like fading defending Super Bowl champions when they are
unbeaten and on the non-division road, as they are just 15-28
ATS since 1980, including 3-11 ATS from Game Six out. In a win
situation, we expect Frisco to win this game and get a measure
of revenge. We add THE CLINCHER: The 49ers are 10-5-1 ATS
at home versus undefeated opponents, including 6-1-1 ATS
when the 49ers own a .500 or greater win percentage.
SAN FRANCISCO over Kansas City by 10
Monday, October 21
5 BEST BET
Safe to say we’ve learned the hard way that it’s proven futile
stepping in front of the cash machine from Baltimore this season.
After stumbling out of the gate 0-2 SUATS, the Ravens have been
ravenous since, going 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, and 4-0 ATS in their
last four games while chewing up and spitting out anyone in
their path. They are also 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS on the Monday
Night road, while the visiting team in this series is 6-0 ATS. The
Bucs have held their own at home, winning outright in their last
three games as a home dog, but a 2-6 ATS ledger on Monday
nights keeps the Bay at bay. With head coach John Harbaugh
residing inside this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2, we seal
the deal with THE CLINCHER: Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield
is 8-15-1 ATS at home in his NFL career against foes coming
off a win, including 1-12-1 ATS versus opponents that were
favored by two or more points in their last game....BY pLAYBOOK
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