NFL MONDAY INFO

Giants vs. Steelers Prediction: George Pickens over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Pickens put on a show last Sunday night versus the Jets. He caught five-of-nine targets for 111 yards and a touchdown while making one contested catch after another. With Russell Wilson under center, Pickens should continue to see opportunities to make big plays. He has 29.6% of the Steelers’ team targets and that was before Wilson took over full time.

The matchup is also right tonight. The Giants like to play man-to-man on the outside and let their defensive line get after the quarterback. The Steelers love to target Pickens against man coverage, so he will have plenty of opportunities to pick up chunk yards. He had a 44-yard reception last week and could haul in most of the yards we need to cash the over on one play.

This is a low total but there are a few things working against Singletary tonight. For starters, the Steelers are allowing only 3.5 yards per carry to running backs this season, which ranks fourth in the NFL. Opponents have not been able to run the ball against Pittsburgh.

The other factor working against Singletary is game script. If the Giants fall behind, as I expect, then they’ll be hard-pressed to stick with the run. At some point, they’ll need to trust their passing game to get them back into the game and when that happens, Singletary’s opportunities will be few and far between.

Giants vs. Steelers Prediction: Wan’Dale Robinson over 4.5 Receptions (-145)

I know this is an expensive prop, but I’m willing to pay the freight. Robinson saw a whopping nine targets last Sunday, hauling in six of those targets for only 23 yards. He’s now averaging just 7.0 yards per catch, but he’s also seeing an average of 9.6 targets per game. That’s third in the league. With the Steelers allowing 5.1 catches per game to slot receivers (22), it makes sense to sit back and watch Daniel Jones pepper Robinson with passes again tonight.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants’ last 8 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants’ last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games when playing NY Giants

Take the under. New York games is 6-1 this season to the under, which is the best/highest rate in the league. Over 50% of Giants’ offensive drives reach third down, which ranks 28 in the league. They’re not efficient, they’re not explosive and they don’t have a quarterback that can bail them out when plays fail.

Meanwhile, the Steelers got a boost from Russell Wilson last Sunday night versus the Jets, but it remains to be seen if their offense is fixed. Wilson made plays, but he completes a lot of jump balls, which are often 50/50 propositions. I still don’t see a lot of efficiency out of the Steelers and the Giants have played respectable defense this season.

Steelers vs. Giants NFL Prediction: UNDER 36.5

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants’ last 8 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants’ last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games when playing NY Giants

Take Pittsburgh. The Giants are 1-15 in primetime games that Daniel Jones has started. Things don’t get easier tonight in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have allowed 2.7 scoring plays per game, which is the second-fewest in the league. The Giants also average 1.5 fewer yards per rushing play than their opponents, which is the worst differential in the league. Defensively, they’ve allowed eight runs of 30 or more yards, which is the most in the NFL.

I just don’t see how Jones leads the Giants to enough scores against this stout Pittsburgh defense. While I’m tempted to sell high on Wilson and the Steelers coming off their performance versus the Jets, this won’t be the spot where I roll the dice.

Giants vs. Steelers NFL Prediction:  PITTSBURGH STEEERS -6

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@RLeith35

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