Ross Benjamin
3% Texans -4 (1st half)
The Prez
NHL 3% Bruins -115 regulation
Bob Balfe
VIP Cowboys +7.5 over Texans
VIP Gonzaga -10 over San Diego State
IC
4 unit NHL Utah HC (-110)
4 unit NCAAB Pittsburgh -34.5
4 unit NBA Atlanta +4.5
August Young
7 unit Dallas Cowboy +7.5
Vernon Croy
7u Michigan NCAAB -23
4u Red Wings ML
7u Pacers -4
Donnie RightSide
Rico Dowdle Over 48.5 Rush Yards
Texans TT Over 24.5 PTS
LT Profits
NCAAB
Monmouth / Wichita State UNDER 154.5 -107
Gonzaga / San Diego State UNDER 150.5 -106
The Texans have struggled to run the ball on early downs this season. If the Cowboys can continue to stifle the Houston rushing attack, it is nearly a certainty they will create pressure on C.J. Stroud, who has been pressured on more than 40% of his dropbacks in four consecutive games.
For all of the faults of the Dallas defense, its ability to get to the passer — ranked fifth in pressure rate — has been steady despite rarely being at full health.
71% of the tickets at the time of writing are bets placed on the Texans, yet the line continues to shift toward Dallas, moving from 7.5 to 7. It is difficult to feel confident backing a team playing poorly, but trends also show there is value on the underdog.
Over the last 20 years, teams coming off a loss of at least 28 points and are underdogs of seven or more points have been profitable. They are 72-55 (56.7%) against the spread (ATS) over the last two decades. Over the last five years, teams in this spot are 14-7 (66.6%) ATS.
The Cowboys offense leaves a lot to be desired, but it is worth noting Cooper Rush is 4-2 ATS as an underdog in his career. I am expecting a better performance from the entire offense against a Texans defense that has allowed 20 or more points in eight straight games. Dall +7.5
By Billy Ward
At the time of writing, FanDuel has the game total both half a point higher than the rest of the market and with lower juice on the under side of the equation. That makes it a solid starting point.
In two games since losing Dak Prescott, Dallas is averaging just 13.5 points per game — with most of the scoring coming against a bad Falcons defense. The Cowboys have had little to no run game to speak of all season, and without Prescott their passing game is just as bad.
It's hard to see them getting much going against the Texans' second-ranked defense by DVOA. In turn, that means Houston won't have to attack down the stretch, either.
Houston has a negative Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) to begin with, so it'll likely skew to the run heavily if/when it gets a lead. That slows down the game, and thus limits scoring.
The Texans haven't topped 23 points since they had all three of their top wide receivers active, which makes it hard for this game to go over the total without the Cowboys offense contributing.
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