NFL Picks and Why Wk6

We hit SF on Thursday - overall record stands at 18-17.   Let's look at some numbers:

-3   Detroit      6 7 4 27 2 25

     Dallas     31 2 24 11 13 19

Det. opened at -3 currently at -3.   Det is better in rushing off  6 vs 31; rush. def 4 vs 24; sagarin rank 2 vs 13;  Dallas is better in passing off 2 vs 7; passing def 11 vs 27; and sched strength 19 vs 25.   

What does this all mean - nothing until you compare it to previous games with opening lines of 3 pts for the away team and similar scenarios.    When I do that, overwhelmingly the data indicates Dallas should when out right or they cover.    My picks for the day:

1. Dallas +3   

2. Gby -5.5

3. Wash/Bal over 50.5 (-125)

4. 2 team 3 pt Teaser  Phil. -5.5  to TB -.5  +133   I use teasers when the lines jump too far from the opening - ESPN Bet does 3 pt    

5.  small  3 team Parlay   Gby -5.5 to Gby under 49.5 to Dallas -3    pays 5.67 to 1

Good luck all

Bol today my friend

@vankiep_0007

 Thanks bud and back at ya 

GL  on your plays @TheBuddah 

Bol Buddah 

@Macwestie1

@umgmu

 Back at ya guys.

Good luck! Always like your posts.

@TheBuddah

@River_fish

 Thanks bud - I appreciate that - bol to ya.

@FelixFermin21

 thanks bud and back at ya

Hope ya know Dallas ain't won at the crib all season why win now vs lions? Lol

@TheBuddah

 gl today on Cowboys too 

@sportmatic

 It's all about numbers, patterns and history-even if that trend continues but they lose by less than 3 -good with me.

@saigon

 thanks bud and back at ya

@Maukaboy

 Hopefully they get it done for us - bol to us bud.

This is a rough spot for Cowboys. Lions will pound the dallas defense

who is missing 3 pro bowlers. Think lions win by 7+ here but GL

@Brooklyncapper

 Just looking deeper into the numbers:  

-3 Detroit 6 7 4 27 2 25

Dallas 31 2 24 11 13 19

I can see Dallas going to their strength passing quite a bit and detroits weakness.  Detroit is going to be more balanced.  When folks are injured - we don't always know how the replacements will play.    Sometimes they suck sometimes they want to prove things.   Thats where using the opening line helps - as the oddsmakers put a number on the game which is -3 for detroit.    Why not higher- I don't know 0 just go with my numbers and patterns which indicate a close game and iften the home team takes it.    hopefully it works out.   We never know in this life we have chosen.  BOL bud either way.   

@JBost77

 Back at ya bud

I'm on Dallas too

@umgmu

 Come on COWBOYS !!!!!     at least keep it close:)

@TheBuddah

@FelixFermin21

 Let's get it bud