The visual that I keep seeing is Marcus Mariota catching his own TD pass to spur the Titans to a comeback win at Kansas City in 2018.
Playoff football is different. Everybody's motivated on the field; off the field, everybody is over- and underrating teams and losing money! Gotta love it.
Let's look at one of this season's matchups. Everybody I know thinks the Chargers will blow out Houston. LAC are 3-point favorites away, and they're a consensus spread winner of 79%. And they're hot at the right time! Great defense! The Texans, meanwhile, haven't met their own standards. They've had injuries, their offense is flailing.
The Chargers won one more game than the Texans in 2024.
The Chargers had seven two-score wins this season. Those were against Vegas (2; 4-13), Carolina (5-12), New Orleans (5-12), Cleveland (3-14), Tennessee (3-14), New England (4-13). So anything you've read or heard about that great offense of theirs is overstating their abilities.
LAC played Denver (won twice), Cincinnati (won), Baltimore (lost), KC (lost), TB (lost big): 3-3 against decent to good teams.
The Texans lost at Minnesota, beat Buffalo, lost by 2 at Green Bay, lost by 3 vs Detroit, lost by 8 at Kansas City, lost vs Baltimore: 1-5 against decent to good teams, with three one-score losses.
The Texans were overrated when the season started. The Chargers are overrated now.
Houston +3
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