Money Line: Buffalo Bills (-900) ; Los Angeles Chargers (+600) Total: 43.5; Opened: 42.5 FPI favorite: Bills by 12 (81.7% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
The Chargers have not been double-digit underdogs since 1998 Week 13 against the Broncos (+13.5). That is the only time they have been double-digit underdogs in the past 45 seasons.
Over the past 15 seasons, teams in their first game following a midseason coaching change are 20-12 ATS, including 8-2 ATS since 2020 and 2-0 ATS this season.
Prime-time unders are 32-17 this season and 155-102-4 (.603) over the past 5 seasons.
Money Line: Buffalo Bills (-900) ; Los Angeles Chargers (+600) Total: 43.5; Opened: 42.5 FPI favorite: Bills by 12 (81.7% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
The Chargers have not been double-digit underdogs since 1998 Week 13 against the Broncos (+13.5). That is the only time they have been double-digit underdogs in the past 45 seasons.
Over the past 15 seasons, teams in their first game following a midseason coaching change are 20-12 ATS, including 8-2 ATS since 2020 and 2-0 ATS this season.
Prime-time unders are 32-17 this season and 155-102-4 (.603) over the past 5 seasons.
You know things are going bad in Pittsburgh for Mike Tomlin, with his 16-year career mark of never having suffered a losing season on the line, and he needs to resort to Mason Rudolph, who will be making his eleventh start as an NFL quarterback. However, he’s gone 5-4-1 SU and 5-3-2 ATS, including a 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS slate against the Bengals. It’s Tomlin’s 22-9 SU and 17-12-1 ATS ledger in games when the Steelers enter dead-level .500 that serves as the starting point today, though. We realize the Steelers’ OL has been offensive this season and is a large contributing reason that starting QB Kenny Pickett resides on the IR. We’re also aware of the fact that the Black and Gold are averaging 13 points over their last fi ve games as they enter today’s game with less than a 5% chance of making this year’s playoffs, per CBS Sports. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, the Colts and Texans play each other in Week 18, so one of those teams will suffer a seventh loss. Both the Texans and Colts have tiebreakers over Pittsburgh, though, after beating the Steelers earlier this season. This means that the Steelers will have to fi nish with a better record than both squads – which means winning out is mandatory for Tomlin’s troops. Tomlin can also lean on his 11-7 SU mark in games against .550 or greater foes in which Pittsburgh is riding a 3-game losing streak, including 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games in the Steel City. Meanwhile, the Bengals lug a 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS mark in Saturday road games into the fray, including 0-5 SUATS against foes coming off back-to-back losses – which ties nicely into the Steelers’ 4-0 SUATS ledger as a host on regular season Saturdays. And fi nally, if Marc’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 isn’t enough, we can always lean on THE CLINCHER: Pittsburgh head coach Tomlin is 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS at home in games when the Steelers sport a .500 exact win percentage, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog.by Playbook
You know things are going bad in Pittsburgh for Mike Tomlin, with his 16-year career mark of never having suffered a losing season on the line, and he needs to resort to Mason Rudolph, who will be making his eleventh start as an NFL quarterback. However, he’s gone 5-4-1 SU and 5-3-2 ATS, including a 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS slate against the Bengals. It’s Tomlin’s 22-9 SU and 17-12-1 ATS ledger in games when the Steelers enter dead-level .500 that serves as the starting point today, though. We realize the Steelers’ OL has been offensive this season and is a large contributing reason that starting QB Kenny Pickett resides on the IR. We’re also aware of the fact that the Black and Gold are averaging 13 points over their last fi ve games as they enter today’s game with less than a 5% chance of making this year’s playoffs, per CBS Sports. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, the Colts and Texans play each other in Week 18, so one of those teams will suffer a seventh loss. Both the Texans and Colts have tiebreakers over Pittsburgh, though, after beating the Steelers earlier this season. This means that the Steelers will have to fi nish with a better record than both squads – which means winning out is mandatory for Tomlin’s troops. Tomlin can also lean on his 11-7 SU mark in games against .550 or greater foes in which Pittsburgh is riding a 3-game losing streak, including 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games in the Steel City. Meanwhile, the Bengals lug a 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS mark in Saturday road games into the fray, including 0-5 SUATS against foes coming off back-to-back losses – which ties nicely into the Steelers’ 4-0 SUATS ledger as a host on regular season Saturdays. And fi nally, if Marc’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 isn’t enough, we can always lean on THE CLINCHER: Pittsburgh head coach Tomlin is 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS at home in games when the Steelers sport a .500 exact win percentage, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog.by Playbook
Whoa, Nellie. A lot has happened surrounding this game since the Westgate SuperBook installed Buffalo as a 1-point favorite prior to the start of the season, the most obvious of which would be the loss of Chargers’ star QB Justin Herbert. But there’s more ... lots more ... including the recent fi ring of Bolts’ head coach Brandon Staley, not to mention the recent reawakening of the suddenly relevant Bills. The
Whoa, Nellie. A lot has happened surrounding this game since the Westgate SuperBook installed Buffalo as a 1-point favorite prior to the start of the season, the most obvious of which would be the loss of Chargers’ star QB Justin Herbert. But there’s more ... lots more ... including the recent fi ring of Bolts’ head coach Brandon Staley, not to mention the recent reawakening of the suddenly relevant Bills. The
hand we’re now forced to play is either an L.A. squad that has been a double-digit home dog only one time since at least 1980 but is 5-0 ATS in its last fi ve games in a double-digit underdog role – or a runaway train herd of Bills that has won each of their last six games on Saturdays by an average win margin of 17 points per game, but is only 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a double-digit favorite? We do know the Bills lose the conference tiebreakers with Cincinnati as well as the Colts and the Texans, and we’re sure head coach Sean McDermott does too. The Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley became the second Bolts’ head coach to be fi red midseason since 1970, joining Kevin Gilbride, who was fi red in 1998 and replaced by June Jones. So, while Los Angeles looks to be little more than roadkill at this stage of the season, we would advise you not to feast on the carcass. For openers, the Bills are 1-7 ATS against foes coming off a loss of 21-plus points, as well as 7-11 ATS as road chalk of eight or more points. In addition, Buffalo has struggled in this series, going 1-4 SUATS in the last fi ve meetings. And the MIDWEEK ALERT jumps in noting that Buffi e allows 4.6 yards per rush on defense. For what it’s worth, NFL road favorites who surrender 4.6 or more yards per rush are just 5-13-1 ATS this century. With the Bills eyeing up a pair of season-ending division duke outs, we make this our ‘caveat emptor’ call of the week – buyer beware. by Playbook
hand we’re now forced to play is either an L.A. squad that has been a double-digit home dog only one time since at least 1980 but is 5-0 ATS in its last fi ve games in a double-digit underdog role – or a runaway train herd of Bills that has won each of their last six games on Saturdays by an average win margin of 17 points per game, but is only 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a double-digit favorite? We do know the Bills lose the conference tiebreakers with Cincinnati as well as the Colts and the Texans, and we’re sure head coach Sean McDermott does too. The Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley became the second Bolts’ head coach to be fi red midseason since 1970, joining Kevin Gilbride, who was fi red in 1998 and replaced by June Jones. So, while Los Angeles looks to be little more than roadkill at this stage of the season, we would advise you not to feast on the carcass. For openers, the Bills are 1-7 ATS against foes coming off a loss of 21-plus points, as well as 7-11 ATS as road chalk of eight or more points. In addition, Buffalo has struggled in this series, going 1-4 SUATS in the last fi ve meetings. And the MIDWEEK ALERT jumps in noting that Buffi e allows 4.6 yards per rush on defense. For what it’s worth, NFL road favorites who surrender 4.6 or more yards per rush are just 5-13-1 ATS this century. With the Bills eyeing up a pair of season-ending division duke outs, we make this our ‘caveat emptor’ call of the week – buyer beware. by Playbook
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