This is the Cardinals’ Super Bowl now, though. Next week, they finish the season against the 49ers in a meaningless game for both sides. This is their last chance to make an impact on the division race.
In Week 16 and later, teams with a win percentage between 40-60% (Rams are 60%) facing teams with a win percentage between 8-25% lower are 31-75-5 against the spread. We get between four and seven such matchups every season, and that trend has never finished more than one game below .500 in Bet Labs’ history.
NFC West road underdogs under seven points also cover at a 70% clip, according to Bet Labs, and Kyler Murray is 31-16-2 against the spread as an underdog. Matthew Stafford only covers at a 41% clip when he’s laying three or more points.
My Pick:
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This is the Cardinals’ Super Bowl now, though. Next week, they finish the season against the 49ers in a meaningless game for both sides. This is their last chance to make an impact on the division race.
In Week 16 and later, teams with a win percentage between 40-60% (Rams are 60%) facing teams with a win percentage between 8-25% lower are 31-75-5 against the spread. We get between four and seven such matchups every season, and that trend has never finished more than one game below .500 in Bet Labs’ history.
NFC West road underdogs under seven points also cover at a 70% clip, according to Bet Labs, and Kyler Murray is 31-16-2 against the spread as an underdog. Matthew Stafford only covers at a 41% clip when he’s laying three or more points.
A win here clinches a playoff berth for the Broncos. A loss today eliminates the Bengals from the postseason. What can we expect in this match-up today, you ask? It’s a game with playoff intensity, for sure. Denver can clinch a playoff bid with a win today or next week. It currently holds the 7th and fi nal playoff seed, while Cincinnati holds the No. 9 spot in the AFC playoff chain. Mathematically, Denver enters with a 76% chance of being playoff-bound, while Cincy clings to a scant 4% chance of earning a playoff berth. That improves to 14% with wins today and next week against the Steelers. Don’t tell that to Joe Burrow, though. All he knows is his team is still breathing. We know that Burrow is 9-3-1 ATS in his NFL career against the ACW West, including 5-0 SUATS in the last fi ve games as a host. In addition, the Striped Cats are 3-1-1 ATS on Saturdays, while the Broncos are 1-4 ATS on Saturdays. So, yes. Saturday is all right if you’re a Bengal, and so is THE CLINCHER: The Bengals are 14-4 ATS against .600 or greater non-division opposition with Joe Burrow, including 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS when Cincy enters off a SUATS win. BY PLAYBOOK
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A win here clinches a playoff berth for the Broncos. A loss today eliminates the Bengals from the postseason. What can we expect in this match-up today, you ask? It’s a game with playoff intensity, for sure. Denver can clinch a playoff bid with a win today or next week. It currently holds the 7th and fi nal playoff seed, while Cincinnati holds the No. 9 spot in the AFC playoff chain. Mathematically, Denver enters with a 76% chance of being playoff-bound, while Cincy clings to a scant 4% chance of earning a playoff berth. That improves to 14% with wins today and next week against the Steelers. Don’t tell that to Joe Burrow, though. All he knows is his team is still breathing. We know that Burrow is 9-3-1 ATS in his NFL career against the ACW West, including 5-0 SUATS in the last fi ve games as a host. In addition, the Striped Cats are 3-1-1 ATS on Saturdays, while the Broncos are 1-4 ATS on Saturdays. So, yes. Saturday is all right if you’re a Bengal, and so is THE CLINCHER: The Bengals are 14-4 ATS against .600 or greater non-division opposition with Joe Burrow, including 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS when Cincy enters off a SUATS win. BY PLAYBOOK
Packers have now made the playoffs in fi ve of Matt LaFleur’s six seasons with the team. An endorsement of his head coaching ability was the transformation of Jordan Love to starting quarterback after he took over for Aaron Rodgers. Many had insisted that Rodgers carried LaFleur, but it doesn’t look that way today. Yes, the Packers scored 30-plus points in their last fi ve games. What is not is that the Pack is hitting on all cylinders on defense, holding three of its previous fi ve foes to season-low yardage. Yet they currently reside in 3rd place in the NFC North, yet they have clinched a playoff berth. And if Green Bay beats Minnesota by three or more points today and then Chicago next week, they will earn a higher seed than the Vikings - should Minny fall to Detroit on the season’s fi nal week. So yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. The history book reminds us that the visiting team in this series is 3-0 ATS, and Green Bay is 6-1 ATS after hosting a Monday Night game, while Minnesota is 0-4 ATS as division home chalk of fewer than seven points. And then there is the round robin with the Packers 0-4 ATS in Game Sixteen and the Vikes 0-4 ATS in Game Sixteen. If this were a tennis match, it would be game, set, match ... Green Bay. BY Playbook
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Green Bay over Minnesota by 4
Packers have now made the playoffs in fi ve of Matt LaFleur’s six seasons with the team. An endorsement of his head coaching ability was the transformation of Jordan Love to starting quarterback after he took over for Aaron Rodgers. Many had insisted that Rodgers carried LaFleur, but it doesn’t look that way today. Yes, the Packers scored 30-plus points in their last fi ve games. What is not is that the Pack is hitting on all cylinders on defense, holding three of its previous fi ve foes to season-low yardage. Yet they currently reside in 3rd place in the NFC North, yet they have clinched a playoff berth. And if Green Bay beats Minnesota by three or more points today and then Chicago next week, they will earn a higher seed than the Vikings - should Minny fall to Detroit on the season’s fi nal week. So yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. The history book reminds us that the visiting team in this series is 3-0 ATS, and Green Bay is 6-1 ATS after hosting a Monday Night game, while Minnesota is 0-4 ATS as division home chalk of fewer than seven points. And then there is the round robin with the Packers 0-4 ATS in Game Sixteen and the Vikes 0-4 ATS in Game Sixteen. If this were a tennis match, it would be game, set, match ... Green Bay. BY Playbook
The late-season love for the Patriots is at work today and for all the right reasons. For openers, following a 16- SU and 1-5-1 ATS start to the season under new head coach Jerod Mayo, they’ve come together enough to go 5-3 ATS in games since, allowing more than 400 yards just once. Today marks their fi rst game in Foxborough since Dec 1. They’ve gone 6-1 ATS the last seven games in this series and are 6-2 ATS at home on Saturdays, which is a near mirror opposite of the Bolts’ 2-8 ATS record in their last ten games on Saturdays. With the Chargers 0-5-1 ATS after scoring 34-plus points in their previous contest, we turn it over to THE CLINCHER: See Marc’s ‘Against The Wind’ BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW column on Page 2 for a terrifi c 16-1 ATS winning angle that supports the Pats in this game. by Playbook
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The late-season love for the Patriots is at work today and for all the right reasons. For openers, following a 16- SU and 1-5-1 ATS start to the season under new head coach Jerod Mayo, they’ve come together enough to go 5-3 ATS in games since, allowing more than 400 yards just once. Today marks their fi rst game in Foxborough since Dec 1. They’ve gone 6-1 ATS the last seven games in this series and are 6-2 ATS at home on Saturdays, which is a near mirror opposite of the Bolts’ 2-8 ATS record in their last ten games on Saturdays. With the Chargers 0-5-1 ATS after scoring 34-plus points in their previous contest, we turn it over to THE CLINCHER: See Marc’s ‘Against The Wind’ BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW column on Page 2 for a terrifi c 16-1 ATS winning angle that supports the Pats in this game. by Playbook
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