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NFL Season Win Totals -- GUN TO YOUR HEAD. TOP BET

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Posted: #1

Fellas, 

Season is right around the corner. Counting down the days. 

Let's talk top NFL regular season win total bets. Name your top bet, and why. 

Mine:

- Panthers OVER 8

I think Cam Newton offseason injury troubles will scare away bettors. They're a dark horse IMO.

Let's win some money moneybag

 
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Posted: #2

With you on panthers, unloaded at ov 7.5 early on. 

My best bet would be broncos over 7.  With Fangio and upgrades on defense they could be a top 5 unit.  Munchak as ol coach strengthens the line and an already solid run game.  Flacco is a big upgrade over keenum.  

 
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Posted: #3
Cleveland under 9 wins, +115.
 
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Posted: #4

doctorS, could you please elaborate on the browns under pick?

 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by lordbettington:

doctorS, could you please elaborate on the browns under pick?


Cleveland's current win total is 9 games. Here are all the teams with win totals of 8.5 or more games:

New England 11
Kansas City 10.5
L.A. Rams 10.5
New Orleans 10.5
L.A. Chargers 9.5
Indianapolis 9.5
Chicago 9.5
Cleveland 9
Green Bay 9
Pittsburgh 9
Dallas 9
Atlanta 8.5
Baltimore 8.5
Seattle 8.5
Houston 8.5

I see a plethora of teams with quarterbacks and head coaches that have playoff experience, including numerous Super Bowl appearances and Super Bowl wins. And then I see lowly Cleveland, with their 7 wins from last season.

Every one of those teams, except Cleveland, has a quarterback with playoff experience. Every one of those teams, except Cleveland, has a quarterback with a winning record.

Look at the four teams with win totals lower than Cleveland: 

Atlanta - Super Bowl head coach and quarterback.

Baltimore - Super Bowl-winning head coach.

Seattle - Super Bowl-winning head coach and quarterback.

Houston - perennial playoff head coach and winning quarterback. 

Then look at Cleveland - rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens and a quarterback who has yet to play a full season. 

Does Freddie Kitchens belong anywhere on a list with those other head coaches? He's never won anything. Last year's 7 wins were divided between Hue Jackson (2 wins) and interim coach Gregg Williams (5 wins). You have to figure that Cleveland will lose at least one game this year that they could have won due to an in-game mistake by Kitchens in clock management, penalty challenges, or play-calling.

Offensive coordinator Todd Monkens has only one year of NFL coordinating experience. He did a fine job with Tampa Bay last season, but Kitchens will be calling plays, not Monken.

Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has only one year of coordinating experience. That was with Carolina in 2017. Under Wilks's watch, Carolina allowed 21 points per game (13th), and 5.4 yards per play (23rd). Wilks went 3-13 SU and 7-9 ATS as the head coach of Arizona last year.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield is being touted as the next Johnny Unitas. But Baker is only 6-7 SU as a starter. Only one of those six wins came against a team with a winning record, and that was the Joe Flacco-led Baltimore Ravens. Five of Mayfield's six wins came against teams with pass defenses that were ranked 22nd or worse in yards per pass attempt. Four of his six wins came against pass defenses that were ranked 24th or worse in opponent passer rating. Against teams ranked 19th or lower in yards per pass attempt, Mayfield went 1-5 SU and 2-3 ATS, with a TD/INT ratio of 10/11.

For Cleveland to cash the over on their season win total of 9 games, they're going to have to win at least two games on the road. And that's assuming they go 8-0 at home, which is highly unlikely. Cleveland is 3-29 SU on the road since 2015, and Mayfield is 2-5 SU on the road. Can this team really win two or more games on the road this year?
 
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Posted: #6
No Gun Needed


BUFFALO BILLS OVER 6.5 OR 7  =


8-11 Win team this seasom 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:

Quote Originally Posted by lordbettington:

doctorS, could you please elaborate on the browns under pick?
Cleveland's current win total is 9 games. Here are all the teams with win totals of 8.5 or more games:New England 11Kansas City 10.5L.A. Rams 10.5New Orleans 10.5L.A. Chargers 9.5Indianapolis 9.5Chicago 9.5Cleveland 9Green Bay 9Pittsburgh 9Dallas 9Atlanta 8.5Baltimore 8.5Seattle 8.5Houston 8.5I see a plethora of teams with quarterbacks and head coaches that have playoff experience, including numerous Super Bowl appearances and Super Bowl wins. And then I see lowly Cleveland, with their 7 wins from last season.Every one of those teams, except Cleveland, has a quarterback with playoff experience. Every one of those teams, except Cleveland, has a quarterback with a winning record.Look at the four teams with win totals lower than Cleveland: Atlanta - Super Bowl head coach and quarterback.Baltimore - Super Bowl-winning head coach.Seattle - Super Bowl-winning head coach and quarterback.Houston - perennial playoff head coach and winning quarterback. Then look at Cleveland - rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens and a quarterback who has yet to play a full season. Does Freddie Kitchens belong anywhere on a list with those other head coaches? He's never won anything. Last year's 7 wins were divided between Hue Jackson (2 wins) and interim coach Gregg Williams (5 wins). You have to figure that Cleveland will lose at least one game this year that they could have won due to an in-game mistake by Kitchens in clock management, penalty challenges, or play-calling.Offensive coordinator Todd Monkens has only one year of NFL coordinating experience. He did a fine job with Tampa Bay last season, but Kitchens will be calling plays, not Monken.Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has only one year of coordinating experience. That was with Carolina in 2017. Under Wilks's watch, Carolina allowed 21 points per game (13th), and 5.4 yards per play (23rd). Wilks went 3-13 SU and 7-9 ATS as the head coach of Arizona last year.Quarterback Baker Mayfield is being touted as the next Johnny Unitas. But Baker is only 6-7 SU as a starter. Only one of those six wins came against a team with a winning record, and that was the Joe Flacco-led Baltimore Ravens. Five of Mayfield's six wins came against teams with pass defenses that were ranked 22nd or worse in yards per pass attempt. Four of his six wins came against pass defenses that were ranked 24th or worse in opponent passer rating. Against teams ranked 19th or lower in yards per pass attempt, Mayfield went 1-5 SU and 2-3 ATS, with a TD/INT ratio of 10/11.For Cleveland to cash the over on their season win total of 9 games, they're going to have to win at least two games on the road. And that's assuming they go 8-0 at home, which is highly unlikely. Cleveland is 3-29 SU on the road since 2015, and Mayfield is 2-5 SU on the road. Can this team really win two or more games on the road this year?

Thanks, Great analysis.  Before it was going to be a no play, now I will go under. Hoping I can find 9.5 somewhere before the season.  Think beckham might be a distraction as well.

Who do you like to win the afc north?  I got cincy at 20-1 for value since I don't think the other teams are much better when cincy is healthy, but now they will miss green in the start of the season. 

 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

No Gun NeededBUFFALO BILLS OVER 6.5 OR 7  =8-11 Win team this seasom

Missed this one, don't won't to pay the huge juice 6.5 ov is right now.  7 is still tempting though.

 
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Posted: #9

Good analysis all. 

I sprinkled on the Broncos over. Going to try and wait for the Bills to tick up to 7 at hopefully EV odds. 

Would love to see/hear any other opinions that people have.

BOL to all moneybag

 
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Posted: #10
Patriots Under 11.5  -125


12 wins isn't needed to win this division.......10-6 is all they need and they will peak in January.  
 
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Posted: #11
I think this is a great pick 
 
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Posted: #12
Carolina that is...
 
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Posted: #13

Hey all!

A few weeks of pre-season done with. Any additional RSW bets you all have placed?

BOL an_cheers

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:


Cleveland's current win total is 9 games. Here are all the teams with win totals of 8.5 or more games:

New England 11
Kansas City 10.5
L.A. Rams 10.5
New Orleans 10.5
L.A. Chargers 9.5
Indianapolis 9.5
Chicago 9.5
Cleveland 9
Green Bay 9
Pittsburgh 9
Dallas 9
Atlanta 8.5
Baltimore 8.5
Seattle 8.5
Houston 8.5

I see a plethora of teams with quarterbacks and head coaches that have playoff experience, including numerous Super Bowl appearances and Super Bowl wins. And then I see lowly Cleveland, with their 7 wins from last season.

Every one of those teams, except Cleveland, has a quarterback with playoff experience. Every one of those teams, except Cleveland, has a quarterback with a winning record.

Look at the four teams with win totals lower than Cleveland: 

Atlanta - Super Bowl head coach and quarterback.

Baltimore - Super Bowl-winning head coach.

Seattle - Super Bowl-winning head coach and quarterback.

Houston - perennial playoff head coach and winning quarterback. 

Then look at Cleveland - rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens and a quarterback who has yet to play a full season. 

Does Freddie Kitchens belong anywhere on a list with those other head coaches? He's never won anything. Last year's 7 wins were divided between Hue Jackson (2 wins) and interim coach Gregg Williams (5 wins). You have to figure that Cleveland will lose at least one game this year that they could have won due to an in-game mistake by Kitchens in clock management, penalty challenges, or play-calling.

Offensive coordinator Todd Monkens has only one year of NFL coordinating experience. He did a fine job with Tampa Bay last season, but Kitchens will be calling plays, not Monken.

Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has only one year of coordinating experience. That was with Carolina in 2017. Under Wilks's watch, Carolina allowed 21 points per game (13th), and 5.4 yards per play (23rd). Wilks went 3-13 SU and 7-9 ATS as the head coach of Arizona last year.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield is being touted as the next Johnny Unitas. But Baker is only 6-7 SU as a starter. Only one of those six wins came against a team with a winning record, and that was the Joe Flacco-led Baltimore Ravens. Five of Mayfield's six wins came against teams with pass defenses that were ranked 22nd or worse in yards per pass attempt. Four of his six wins came against pass defenses that were ranked 24th or worse in opponent passer rating. Against teams ranked 19th or lower in yards per pass attempt, Mayfield went 1-5 SU and 2-3 ATS, with a TD/INT ratio of 10/11.

For Cleveland to cash the over on their season win total of 9 games, they're going to have to win at least two games on the road. And that's assuming they go 8-0 at home, which is highly unlikely. Cleveland is 3-29 SU on the road since 2015, and Mayfield is 2-5 SU on the road. Can this team really win two or more games on the road this year?

"YOU" my friend, are a legend ... Very nice analysis ...

Im on

Being challenged in life is inevitable ... Being defeated in life is optional ...
 
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Posted: #15

Cam Newtonan_speechless Hope two weeks will heal all injuriesan_fight

 
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Posted: #16

New York Jets OVER 6.5 ... Not a fabulous price ($1.54) but a winner is a winner ...

Change of General Manager, Head Coach, 2 x Coordinators ...

Acquisition of Le Veon Bell, Crowder, Mosely ...

Darnold to have quite a "nice" season ...

Being challenged in life is inevitable ... Being defeated in life is optional ...
 
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Posted: #17

My train of thought:

Browns road wins:

Week 2 @Jets

Week 17 @Bengals

I prefer this scenario:

Jets will do false start (Bills winning week1) and Browns use their momentum on top in week2 beating Jets, even Jets winning vs Bills my Browns ranking is higher as Jets.

Bengals are out of postseason at week 17. Bengals plays vs Dolphins in week 16 before. If they are losing they could reach draft´s 1st overall and have no really interest to win vs Browns, win-win situation or Good-Bye-Andy-Scenario.

Anyway Browns can easly struggle in home games and you are right by doing the under.

BUT: The bookies limbo dance under 9.5 has lower value as Ravens division win.

Conclusion: I bet Ravens division win, saving ammo in Browns over/under instead adding on Ravens division win. You can split in Ravens and/or Steelers if you are unsure but for me some regressions-indicators show me that Ravens are in better position than Steelers.

According to over/under:

My dark horse No1 are the Panthers so I stick to Carolina´s overs but there is no value in bookies odds anymore. So I take Panthers making PlayOffs and calculate a stack for Conference/SB winning which I add on week after week if Panthers are in target line.

 
 
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Posted: #18
Got Eagles Over 9.5 -130 early May and I would be surprised if they didn't win double-digit games this year.
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