Each team enters today’s contest with disparate results – at least from a mental aspect. The Titans blew a late lead and lost at home in overtime to Houston, while the Seahawks rallied from the clouds to pull out a last-second shocker over the Eagles on Monday night. As such, Seattle takes the fi eld as the No. 8 seed in the current NFC Playoff Picture, while the Titans are looking forward to the 2024 campaign. With it, however, the pressure mounts on a Seahawks’ squad that has now been outgained in each of their last four games as they bring along a phony sense of accomplishment. Given Seattle’s 0-5 outright record in road games this season since its Bye Week, and Tennessee’s 6-1 ATS mark in this series, look for the Titans to improve on its 13-5 SU and 11-6-1 ATS at home off a loss under Mike Vrabel, including 4-0 SUATS this season. And look for the Seabags to a taste of touch of reality today, especially with Ryan Tannehill rumored to be behind center for the Titans today. by Playbook
Each team enters today’s contest with disparate results – at least from a mental aspect. The Titans blew a late lead and lost at home in overtime to Houston, while the Seahawks rallied from the clouds to pull out a last-second shocker over the Eagles on Monday night. As such, Seattle takes the fi eld as the No. 8 seed in the current NFC Playoff Picture, while the Titans are looking forward to the 2024 campaign. With it, however, the pressure mounts on a Seahawks’ squad that has now been outgained in each of their last four games as they bring along a phony sense of accomplishment. Given Seattle’s 0-5 outright record in road games this season since its Bye Week, and Tennessee’s 6-1 ATS mark in this series, look for the Titans to improve on its 13-5 SU and 11-6-1 ATS at home off a loss under Mike Vrabel, including 4-0 SUATS this season. And look for the Seabags to a taste of touch of reality today, especially with Ryan Tannehill rumored to be behind center for the Titans today. by Playbook
Money Line: Detroit Lions (-155) ; Minnesota Vikings (+135) Total: 47.5; Opened: 46.5 FPI favorite: Lions by 3.6 (60.7% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
The Vikings have covered five straight games as an underdog (5-1-1 ATS this season as underdog).
Lions games are 9-5 to the over this season, the second-highest over percentage in the NFL. Vikings games are 10-4 to the under, tied for the highest under percentage in the NFL.
The Lions are 9-5 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL. The Lions are 21-10 ATS since the start of last season, the best record in the NFL. They are 32-16 ATS under Dan Campbell, tied with the Cowboys for the best record since 2021.
Money Line: Detroit Lions (-155) ; Minnesota Vikings (+135) Total: 47.5; Opened: 46.5 FPI favorite: Lions by 3.6 (60.7% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
The Vikings have covered five straight games as an underdog (5-1-1 ATS this season as underdog).
Lions games are 9-5 to the over this season, the second-highest over percentage in the NFL. Vikings games are 10-4 to the under, tied for the highest under percentage in the NFL.
The Lions are 9-5 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL. The Lions are 21-10 ATS since the start of last season, the best record in the NFL. They are 32-16 ATS under Dan Campbell, tied with the Cowboys for the best record since 2021.
Money Line: Green Bay Packers (-210) ; Carolina Panthers (+175) Total: 37.5; Opened: 36.5 FPI favorite: Packers by 6.7 (69.5% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
Panthers games are 10-4 to the under this season, tied for the highest under percentage in the NFL. All six Panthers home games have gone under the total this season.
The past four Packers games have gone over the total. Seven of the previous eight Panthers games have gone under the total.
The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games as road favorites.
Money Line: Green Bay Packers (-210) ; Carolina Panthers (+175) Total: 37.5; Opened: 36.5 FPI favorite: Packers by 6.7 (69.5% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
Panthers games are 10-4 to the under this season, tied for the highest under percentage in the NFL. All six Panthers home games have gone under the total this season.
The past four Packers games have gone over the total. Seven of the previous eight Panthers games have gone under the total.
The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games as road favorites.
Money Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (+115) ; Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-135) Total: 42.5; Opened: 44.5 FPI favorite: Jaguars by 0.1 (50.3% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Jaguars -1.5
Betting Nuggets
The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS on the road this season, and they are 3-0 ATS as road favorites. Under Doug Pederson, the Jaguars are 9-6 ATS on the road (8-1 ATS in past nine), and they are 4-0 ATS as road favorites.
Four straight Buccaneers games have gone over the total.
The Buccaneers are 0-6 outright against teams currently with winning records (3-3 ATS).
Money Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (+115) ; Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-135) Total: 42.5; Opened: 44.5 FPI favorite: Jaguars by 0.1 (50.3% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Jaguars -1.5
Betting Nuggets
The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS on the road this season, and they are 3-0 ATS as road favorites. Under Doug Pederson, the Jaguars are 9-6 ATS on the road (8-1 ATS in past nine), and they are 4-0 ATS as road favorites.
Four straight Buccaneers games have gone over the total.
The Buccaneers are 0-6 outright against teams currently with winning records (3-3 ATS).
Money Line: Arizona Cardinals (+180) ; Chicago Bears (-215) Total: 42.5; Opened: 44.5 FPI favorite: Bears by 4 (62% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
This will be the first time in Justin Fields' career he has been favored by more than three points. The Bears were 3.5-point favorites in a Tyson Bagent start earlier this season against the Panthers. Prior to that, the last time the Bears were at least 3.5-point favorites was in 2021 Week 17 (-6.5 vs Giants).
Six of the past seven Bears games have gone under the total, including three straight.
Five straight Cardinals road games have gone under the total (unders are 6-1 in Cardinals road games this season).
Money Line: Arizona Cardinals (+180) ; Chicago Bears (-215) Total: 42.5; Opened: 44.5 FPI favorite: Bears by 4 (62% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
This will be the first time in Justin Fields' career he has been favored by more than three points. The Bears were 3.5-point favorites in a Tyson Bagent start earlier this season against the Panthers. Prior to that, the last time the Bears were at least 3.5-point favorites was in 2021 Week 17 (-6.5 vs Giants).
Six of the past seven Bears games have gone under the total, including three straight.
Five straight Cardinals road games have gone under the total (unders are 6-1 in Cardinals road games this season).
The Cowboys have covered nine straight games after a loss. They are 11-1 ATS after a loss since 2021, 7-0 ATS since last season and 3-0 ATS this season.
The Cowboys and Dolphins are both 9-5 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL. Since 2021, the Cowboys are 32-16 ATS, tied with the Lions for best in the NFL.
The Dolphins are 0-3 outright and ATS against teams currently with winning records this season.
The Cowboys have covered nine straight games after a loss. They are 11-1 ATS after a loss since 2021, 7-0 ATS since last season and 3-0 ATS this season.
The Cowboys and Dolphins are both 9-5 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL. Since 2021, the Cowboys are 32-16 ATS, tied with the Lions for best in the NFL.
The Dolphins are 0-3 outright and ATS against teams currently with winning records this season.
Money Line: New England Patriots (+270) ; Denver Broncos (-330) Total: 34.5; Opened: 36.5 FPI favorite: Broncos by 5.3 (65.7% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
The Patriots are 5-14 ATS as underdogs over the past two seasons (3-12 ATS in past 15 games as underdog).
The Broncos are 2-10-1 ATS as favorites when starting Russell Wilson (6-7 outright). Overall, the Broncos are 3-10-1 ATS as favorites over the past two seasons.
Prime-time unders are 32-17 this season and 155-102-4 (.603) over the past five seasons.
Money Line: New England Patriots (+270) ; Denver Broncos (-330) Total: 34.5; Opened: 36.5 FPI favorite: Broncos by 5.3 (65.7% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
The Patriots are 5-14 ATS as underdogs over the past two seasons (3-12 ATS in past 15 games as underdog).
The Broncos are 2-10-1 ATS as favorites when starting Russell Wilson (6-7 outright). Overall, the Broncos are 3-10-1 ATS as favorites over the past two seasons.
Prime-time unders are 32-17 this season and 155-102-4 (.603) over the past five seasons.
The Cowboys offense struggled as Dak Prescott had one of the two worst games of his season in the 31-10 loss to Buffalo. If I told you before kickoff that Josh Allen would complete just seven passes in the entire game, you’d probably assume he left the game injured or had the worst game of his career. Buffalo’s elite offensive line completely dominated in the run game and at home in a home run spot for the Bills.
Miami’s offensive line injuries and inconsistent running game make it more difficult to replicate that success this week. Watch closely the status of Cowboys defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins, who missed that game and is probably 50/50 to play against Miami. The Dolphins defense has faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL. When they’ve faced a good offense, the opponent has moved the ball comfortably. Kansas City scored three first-half touchdowns, while the Bills and Eagles faced little resistance.
Both of these defenses have had their numbers inflated by facing a weak schedule of opposing offenses. Both of these defenses have struggled to hold up when facing better competition. The key difference right now is the injuries along the Miami offensive line and that Dak Prescott is much more reliable from the pocket than Tua Tagovailoa when under pressure.
Dallas still has an elite pass rush and while its man-coverage scheme will certainly be tested against this Miami speed, the pass rush should get a lot more wins overall. The Cowboys are the better team marginally and catching two on the road, I’d bet them to win this game. ML
The Cowboys offense struggled as Dak Prescott had one of the two worst games of his season in the 31-10 loss to Buffalo. If I told you before kickoff that Josh Allen would complete just seven passes in the entire game, you’d probably assume he left the game injured or had the worst game of his career. Buffalo’s elite offensive line completely dominated in the run game and at home in a home run spot for the Bills.
Miami’s offensive line injuries and inconsistent running game make it more difficult to replicate that success this week. Watch closely the status of Cowboys defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins, who missed that game and is probably 50/50 to play against Miami. The Dolphins defense has faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL. When they’ve faced a good offense, the opponent has moved the ball comfortably. Kansas City scored three first-half touchdowns, while the Bills and Eagles faced little resistance.
Both of these defenses have had their numbers inflated by facing a weak schedule of opposing offenses. Both of these defenses have struggled to hold up when facing better competition. The key difference right now is the injuries along the Miami offensive line and that Dak Prescott is much more reliable from the pocket than Tua Tagovailoa when under pressure.
Dallas still has an elite pass rush and while its man-coverage scheme will certainly be tested against this Miami speed, the pass rush should get a lot more wins overall. The Cowboys are the better team marginally and catching two on the road, I’d bet them to win this game. ML
We’re going to learn a lot about each of these teams this week. Despite the fact that each is currently ranked No. 2 in their respective conferences in the current NFL Playoff Picture, both come with warts. The white elephant in the room wonders whether the Cowboys can win road games and if the Dolphins can’t beat a winning team. So, what gives here, with Dallas just 6-15 SUATS away in its last twenty-one games against winning foes - including 0-3 SUATS this year by an average loss margin of 23 PPG – and Miami is 6-14 outright versus teams with a winning record, including 0-3 SUATS this season. One would think this to be a battle for the cellar rather than for the top seeds. Tua completed 21 of 24 passes in last week’s 30-0 dismantling of the Jets, as they have scored 30-plus points eight times this season. Our biggest concern today, though, is they mustered only 290 yards of offense, meaning the cuffs and the collars don’t match. While they are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC Playoff Picture, Miami can claim the top-seed should it win out - and it would certainly deserve so, having to go up against the likes of the Cowboys here, and the Ravens and Bills to conclude the campaign. Fortunately, they are 9-2 SUATS at home coming off a home game as a favorite after dressing up as a favorite the previous game, including 6-0 ATS when not favored by seven or more points. Meanwhile, Dallas has a -4 point differential on the road in 2023 (14th in the NFL) while leading the league with a +171 point differential at home in 2023 – and that’s with a 40-point road win in its season opener at the Giants. We button this up with THE CLINCHER: NFL home favorites coming off a home shutout win are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS since 2000 against an opponent coming off an away game, including 7-0 SUATS if they sport a sub .750 win percentage. Playbook
We’re going to learn a lot about each of these teams this week. Despite the fact that each is currently ranked No. 2 in their respective conferences in the current NFL Playoff Picture, both come with warts. The white elephant in the room wonders whether the Cowboys can win road games and if the Dolphins can’t beat a winning team. So, what gives here, with Dallas just 6-15 SUATS away in its last twenty-one games against winning foes - including 0-3 SUATS this year by an average loss margin of 23 PPG – and Miami is 6-14 outright versus teams with a winning record, including 0-3 SUATS this season. One would think this to be a battle for the cellar rather than for the top seeds. Tua completed 21 of 24 passes in last week’s 30-0 dismantling of the Jets, as they have scored 30-plus points eight times this season. Our biggest concern today, though, is they mustered only 290 yards of offense, meaning the cuffs and the collars don’t match. While they are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC Playoff Picture, Miami can claim the top-seed should it win out - and it would certainly deserve so, having to go up against the likes of the Cowboys here, and the Ravens and Bills to conclude the campaign. Fortunately, they are 9-2 SUATS at home coming off a home game as a favorite after dressing up as a favorite the previous game, including 6-0 ATS when not favored by seven or more points. Meanwhile, Dallas has a -4 point differential on the road in 2023 (14th in the NFL) while leading the league with a +171 point differential at home in 2023 – and that’s with a 40-point road win in its season opener at the Giants. We button this up with THE CLINCHER: NFL home favorites coming off a home shutout win are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS since 2000 against an opponent coming off an away game, including 7-0 SUATS if they sport a sub .750 win percentage. Playbook
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