Money line: Kansas City Chiefs (+170); Baltimore Ravens (-200) Total: 44.5; Opened: 46.5 FPI favorite: Ravens by 4.6 (63.6% to win outright)
Betting nuggets
The Ravens are 12-6 ATS this season with overs and unders going 9-9. The Ravens are covering games by an average of 8.5 points per game, the best mark by any team since 2012.
The Chiefs are 11-8 ATS this season with unders going 12-7.
Mahomes has been an underdog 11 times in his career entering the AFC Championship Game. He is 8-3 outright and 9-1-1 ATS. Mahomes is 9-0-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career.
The Chiefs have covered four straight games, their longest ATS winning streak since 2021 (six straight).
Mahomes is 3-1 outright and 2-2 ATS against Jackson. Three of the four meetings went over the total, with each matchup combining for at least 51 points. The average for the previous four over/unders was 52.4 with none lower than 49.
The Ravens are 14-7 ATS in playoff games under coach John Harbaugh including 9-3 ATS since 2012. Jackson is 2-3 ATS in the playoffs with unders going 4-1.
Home teams are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 AFC Championship Games.
Money line: Kansas City Chiefs (+170); Baltimore Ravens (-200) Total: 44.5; Opened: 46.5 FPI favorite: Ravens by 4.6 (63.6% to win outright)
Betting nuggets
The Ravens are 12-6 ATS this season with overs and unders going 9-9. The Ravens are covering games by an average of 8.5 points per game, the best mark by any team since 2012.
The Chiefs are 11-8 ATS this season with unders going 12-7.
Mahomes has been an underdog 11 times in his career entering the AFC Championship Game. He is 8-3 outright and 9-1-1 ATS. Mahomes is 9-0-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career.
The Chiefs have covered four straight games, their longest ATS winning streak since 2021 (six straight).
Mahomes is 3-1 outright and 2-2 ATS against Jackson. Three of the four meetings went over the total, with each matchup combining for at least 51 points. The average for the previous four over/unders was 52.4 with none lower than 49.
The Ravens are 14-7 ATS in playoff games under coach John Harbaugh including 9-3 ATS since 2012. Jackson is 2-3 ATS in the playoffs with unders going 4-1.
Home teams are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 AFC Championship Games.
Money line: Detroit Lions (+270); San Francisco 49ers (-340) Total: 50.5; Opened: 51.5 FPI favorite: 49ers by 8.5 (74.1% to win outright)
Betting nuggets
The Lions are 13-6 ATS this season, the second-best mark behind the Raiders (12-5 ATS). Overs are 12-7 in Lions games. The 49ers are 9-9 ATS this season with overs going 10-8.
The Lions are 36-17 ATS under coach Dan Campbell, the best record in the NFL in that span (since 2021). They are 21-10 ATS as underdogs and 17-9 ATS on the road under Campbell.
Campbell is 18-6 against the spread (ATS) in his career when getting at least 4 points, including 16-4 ATS with the Lions.
This is the Lions' largest underdog role this season. The Lions are 2-1 ATS and 1-2 outright as underdogs this season (largest underdog role: +3.5 at Cowboys in Week 17).
Since 1999, teams favored by at least six points in conference championship games are 5-11 ATS and 11-5 outright. The last conference title game spread this large was two years ago when Cincinnati (+7) upset Kansas City outright.
The 49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, their longest ATS losing streak since 2016 and tied for their second-longest home ATS losing streak in the Super Bowl era.
The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
The 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records.
The Lions have covered three straight meetings with all three matchups going over the total.
The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in playoff games under coach Kyle Shanahan with unders going 8-2. He is 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS as a postseason favorite with the only ATS loss coming in the divisional round last week.
Top-seeded teams that win but don't cover their divisional round matchup are 11-7 ATS in conference championship games (4-1 ATS since 2013).
Money line: Detroit Lions (+270); San Francisco 49ers (-340) Total: 50.5; Opened: 51.5 FPI favorite: 49ers by 8.5 (74.1% to win outright)
Betting nuggets
The Lions are 13-6 ATS this season, the second-best mark behind the Raiders (12-5 ATS). Overs are 12-7 in Lions games. The 49ers are 9-9 ATS this season with overs going 10-8.
The Lions are 36-17 ATS under coach Dan Campbell, the best record in the NFL in that span (since 2021). They are 21-10 ATS as underdogs and 17-9 ATS on the road under Campbell.
Campbell is 18-6 against the spread (ATS) in his career when getting at least 4 points, including 16-4 ATS with the Lions.
This is the Lions' largest underdog role this season. The Lions are 2-1 ATS and 1-2 outright as underdogs this season (largest underdog role: +3.5 at Cowboys in Week 17).
Since 1999, teams favored by at least six points in conference championship games are 5-11 ATS and 11-5 outright. The last conference title game spread this large was two years ago when Cincinnati (+7) upset Kansas City outright.
The 49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, their longest ATS losing streak since 2016 and tied for their second-longest home ATS losing streak in the Super Bowl era.
The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
The 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records.
The Lions have covered three straight meetings with all three matchups going over the total.
The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in playoff games under coach Kyle Shanahan with unders going 8-2. He is 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS as a postseason favorite with the only ATS loss coming in the divisional round last week.
Top-seeded teams that win but don't cover their divisional round matchup are 11-7 ATS in conference championship games (4-1 ATS since 2013).
Take San Francisco. Everyone and their brother is on the Lions tonight. They look at this spread and see dollar signs because of the way San Francisco played last week versus Green Bay. That’s fair, especially when you consider Detroit’s magical season. The Lions are 14-5 on the year and 13-6 against the spread. So why lay over seven points with a Niners team that didn’t come close to covering against the Packers last weekend.
However, Samuel means that much to the Niners. He practiced this week and will play tonight. He barely played last week before injuring his shoulder and you could tell the Niners suffered offensively given his absence. With Samuel active and playing, Kyle Shanahan will have his full complement of weapons to attack a Detroit secondary that has struggled.
Oh, and I don’t trust Jared Goff. I know he’s had an incredible year. I know he and Dan Campbell have captured the hearts of Motown. That said, including playoffs, Goff has 12 passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions against zone coverage this season. The 49ers have played zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. They have 16 interceptions, which is the second-most in the NFL, with only six passing touchdowns allowed when playing zone. The Lions also have injuries up front and if they fall behind, Goff will be a sitting duck – a sitting duck prone to turn the ball over. by A.Rome
Lions vs. 49ers Over/Under NFL Prediction: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7.5
Take San Francisco. Everyone and their brother is on the Lions tonight. They look at this spread and see dollar signs because of the way San Francisco played last week versus Green Bay. That’s fair, especially when you consider Detroit’s magical season. The Lions are 14-5 on the year and 13-6 against the spread. So why lay over seven points with a Niners team that didn’t come close to covering against the Packers last weekend.
However, Samuel means that much to the Niners. He practiced this week and will play tonight. He barely played last week before injuring his shoulder and you could tell the Niners suffered offensively given his absence. With Samuel active and playing, Kyle Shanahan will have his full complement of weapons to attack a Detroit secondary that has struggled.
Oh, and I don’t trust Jared Goff. I know he’s had an incredible year. I know he and Dan Campbell have captured the hearts of Motown. That said, including playoffs, Goff has 12 passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions against zone coverage this season. The 49ers have played zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. They have 16 interceptions, which is the second-most in the NFL, with only six passing touchdowns allowed when playing zone. The Lions also have injuries up front and if they fall behind, Goff will be a sitting duck – a sitting duck prone to turn the ball over. by A.Rome
Lions vs. 49ers Over/Under NFL Prediction: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7.5
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog
Take the over. The over is 9-4 in the Lions’ last 13 games following a win, is 19-9 in their last 28 conference games and is 17-8 in their last 25 games following an ATS win. On the other side, the over is 12-3-1 in the 49ers’ last 16 games when favored between 3.5 and 10 points, is 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning record and has hit in five out of their last six games following a win.
The Lions are outstanding against the run, but their pass defense is horrendous. Brock Purdy struggled last Saturday night against the Packers, but that was in the rain. He’ll also have Samuel at his disposal, which should draw attention away from Brandon Aiyuk on the outside. Aiyuk is a big play waiting to happen, as is George Kittle.
On the other side, the Packers outlined how to move the ball on the 49ers. Nick Bosa is a headache, but the rest of the defensive line hasn’t been as effective as it has been in year’s past. Jared Goff has more than enough weapons to get the ball in the end zone a few times tonight and help cash this over. by A.Rome
Lions vs. 49ers Over/Under NFL Prediction: OVER 51.5
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog
Take the over. The over is 9-4 in the Lions’ last 13 games following a win, is 19-9 in their last 28 conference games and is 17-8 in their last 25 games following an ATS win. On the other side, the over is 12-3-1 in the 49ers’ last 16 games when favored between 3.5 and 10 points, is 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning record and has hit in five out of their last six games following a win.
The Lions are outstanding against the run, but their pass defense is horrendous. Brock Purdy struggled last Saturday night against the Packers, but that was in the rain. He’ll also have Samuel at his disposal, which should draw attention away from Brandon Aiyuk on the outside. Aiyuk is a big play waiting to happen, as is George Kittle.
On the other side, the Packers outlined how to move the ball on the 49ers. Nick Bosa is a headache, but the rest of the defensive line hasn’t been as effective as it has been in year’s past. Jared Goff has more than enough weapons to get the ball in the end zone a few times tonight and help cash this over. by A.Rome
Lions vs. 49ers Over/Under NFL Prediction: OVER 51.5
Chiefs vs. Ravens Player Prop Predictions: Jackson Over Passing Yards
Lamar Jackson averaged 230 passing yards per game during the regular season, so his passing prop is lower given that nugget. The Chiefs defense was outstanding during the regular season and shutdown the Dolphins’ high-powered offense during Wild Card Weekend. However, the Dolphins were dead on arrival based on the frigid temperatures impacting the Kansas City area that night. Jackson only threw for 152 yards last week in the Ravens’ win over the Texans, but he didn’t need to throw much as the Ravens rolled in the second half. Chances are, his arm will be needed more today.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Player Prop Predictions: Jackson Over Passing Yards
Lamar Jackson averaged 230 passing yards per game during the regular season, so his passing prop is lower given that nugget. The Chiefs defense was outstanding during the regular season and shutdown the Dolphins’ high-powered offense during Wild Card Weekend. However, the Dolphins were dead on arrival based on the frigid temperatures impacting the Kansas City area that night. Jackson only threw for 152 yards last week in the Ravens’ win over the Texans, but he didn’t need to throw much as the Ravens rolled in the second half. Chances are, his arm will be needed more today.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Player Prop Predictions: Butker Over Field Goals
Butker made both of his field goals against the Bills last Sunday in the Divisional round and all four of his attempts against the Dolphins Wild Card Weekend. The last time he didn’t make more than two field goals in a game was against the Raiders on Christmas Day. Including playoffs, Butker made at least two field goals in 12 of his 19 games this season.
Harrison Butker Over 1.5 Field Goals
For whatever reason, Odell Beckham Jr. barely played last week for Baltimore. Was it a matchup issue? Or do the Ravens just favor Bateman, who ran a route on 72 percent of the team’s drop backs last week. He was targeted three times last week and caught all three passes for 39 yards. While three catches won’t cash this prop today, understand that Baltimore barely threw last Sunday in its win over Houston. As previously mentioned, Jackson will need to be more active in the passing game to beat the Chiefs today.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Player Prop Predictions: Butker Over Field Goals
Butker made both of his field goals against the Bills last Sunday in the Divisional round and all four of his attempts against the Dolphins Wild Card Weekend. The last time he didn’t make more than two field goals in a game was against the Raiders on Christmas Day. Including playoffs, Butker made at least two field goals in 12 of his 19 games this season.
Harrison Butker Over 1.5 Field Goals
For whatever reason, Odell Beckham Jr. barely played last week for Baltimore. Was it a matchup issue? Or do the Ravens just favor Bateman, who ran a route on 72 percent of the team’s drop backs last week. He was targeted three times last week and caught all three passes for 39 yards. While three catches won’t cash this prop today, understand that Baltimore barely threw last Sunday in its win over Houston. As previously mentioned, Jackson will need to be more active in the passing game to beat the Chiefs today.
Take Baltimore. The Ravens are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 playoff games, are 18-7-2 against the number in their last 27 games versus a team with a winning record and have covered in five of their last six games as a favorite.
I know, I know – why would you bet against Mahomes as an underdog! You can’t do that! The hell is wrong with you?
Okay, let’s peel back the union. The Chiefs dominated Buffalo’s defense last week and still needed a missed field goal to hang on to a three-point victory. The week before, they beat a frozen Miami team that was beaten at kickoff. Let’s toss out the 13-12 win over the Chargers in Week 18 because Kansas City rested its starters. But the team needed six Harrison Butker’s field goals to beat the banged-up Bengals in Week 17, lost to Adian O’Connel’s Raiders as a double-digit home favorite in Week 16 and wasn’t overly impressive in a 10-point win against Bailey Zappe and the Patriots in Week 15. The two weeks prior, they lost 20-17 to the aforementioned Bills and 27-19 to the Packers in Green Bay.
In other words, just because the Chiefs won their last two games, doesn’t mean their issues from the regular season are fixed. Guard Joe Thuney is out, Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco are banged up and the defense could have some pieces missing as well. This run is over. by A.Rome
Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL Prediction: BALTIMORE RAVENS -3.5
Take Baltimore. The Ravens are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 playoff games, are 18-7-2 against the number in their last 27 games versus a team with a winning record and have covered in five of their last six games as a favorite.
I know, I know – why would you bet against Mahomes as an underdog! You can’t do that! The hell is wrong with you?
Okay, let’s peel back the union. The Chiefs dominated Buffalo’s defense last week and still needed a missed field goal to hang on to a three-point victory. The week before, they beat a frozen Miami team that was beaten at kickoff. Let’s toss out the 13-12 win over the Chargers in Week 18 because Kansas City rested its starters. But the team needed six Harrison Butker’s field goals to beat the banged-up Bengals in Week 17, lost to Adian O’Connel’s Raiders as a double-digit home favorite in Week 16 and wasn’t overly impressive in a 10-point win against Bailey Zappe and the Patriots in Week 15. The two weeks prior, they lost 20-17 to the aforementioned Bills and 27-19 to the Packers in Green Bay.
In other words, just because the Chiefs won their last two games, doesn’t mean their issues from the regular season are fixed. Guard Joe Thuney is out, Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco are banged up and the defense could have some pieces missing as well. This run is over. by A.Rome
Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL Prediction: BALTIMORE RAVENS -3.5
Oddsmakers across all major sportsbooks have listed Jackson's passing attempts prop below 30 for good reason. The Ravens are going to feature a heavy dose of the rushing attack that, which is what the Chiefs defense has struggled most to defend this season.
In the three career games in which Jackson has faced Steve Spanuolo's defense, he's averaged 78.6 rushing yards per game. After the success that the Bills had last week on the ground against the Chiefs, it'd be shocking to see the Ravens not lean heavily into the run game as four-point favorites.
The other angle to this position on Jackson's passing yards is obviously how well the Chiefs pass defense has played. K.C. limited Josh Allen to just 3.8 yards per attempt on 20 passes thrown in the second half last week. During the regular season, the Chiefs caused 18% of all passes against them to be deemed off target, which ranked eighth best in the NFL. When adjusted for sacks, this defense allowed only 4.9 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (fifth). Both Tua Tagovailoa and Allen attempted exactly 39 passes against the Chiefs over these last two playoff games, yet neither reached 200 passing yards, averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt.
If the rain becomes a hindrance in ball-handling on Sunday, it'll only increase the likelihood of the Ravens taking the air out of the ball. I'd bet this under down to 209.5.
Oddsmakers across all major sportsbooks have listed Jackson's passing attempts prop below 30 for good reason. The Ravens are going to feature a heavy dose of the rushing attack that, which is what the Chiefs defense has struggled most to defend this season.
In the three career games in which Jackson has faced Steve Spanuolo's defense, he's averaged 78.6 rushing yards per game. After the success that the Bills had last week on the ground against the Chiefs, it'd be shocking to see the Ravens not lean heavily into the run game as four-point favorites.
The other angle to this position on Jackson's passing yards is obviously how well the Chiefs pass defense has played. K.C. limited Josh Allen to just 3.8 yards per attempt on 20 passes thrown in the second half last week. During the regular season, the Chiefs caused 18% of all passes against them to be deemed off target, which ranked eighth best in the NFL. When adjusted for sacks, this defense allowed only 4.9 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (fifth). Both Tua Tagovailoa and Allen attempted exactly 39 passes against the Chiefs over these last two playoff games, yet neither reached 200 passing yards, averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt.
If the rain becomes a hindrance in ball-handling on Sunday, it'll only increase the likelihood of the Ravens taking the air out of the ball. I'd bet this under down to 209.5.
I’m buying the trends regarding Mahomes as an underdog. Per Evan Abrams, Mahomes is 8-3 straight-up as an underdog in his career and 5-0 in games where he opened as a ‘dog of three or more points.
After opening at three, this line has shifted a full point on DraftKings to four, while most books still have it at 3.5. While it’s not a key number, the extra half-point could be significant here in what looks to be a close game.
Kansas City is peaking at the right time, looking like the vintage version of the team that’s won two of the last five Super Bowls. Thanks to the resurgence of star tight end Travis Kelce and the emergence of running back Isaiah Pacheco as a true workhorse back, they’ve averaged 26.5 points in the playoffs, even in tough weather conditions.
It should be easier going this week, giving them a chance to keep pace in a shootout and cover the spread or win outright. I want to make sure I’m getting all four points on the spread, but I’d bet that down to -120.
I’m buying the trends regarding Mahomes as an underdog. Per Evan Abrams, Mahomes is 8-3 straight-up as an underdog in his career and 5-0 in games where he opened as a ‘dog of three or more points.
After opening at three, this line has shifted a full point on DraftKings to four, while most books still have it at 3.5. While it’s not a key number, the extra half-point could be significant here in what looks to be a close game.
Kansas City is peaking at the right time, looking like the vintage version of the team that’s won two of the last five Super Bowls. Thanks to the resurgence of star tight end Travis Kelce and the emergence of running back Isaiah Pacheco as a true workhorse back, they’ve averaged 26.5 points in the playoffs, even in tough weather conditions.
It should be easier going this week, giving them a chance to keep pace in a shootout and cover the spread or win outright. I want to make sure I’m getting all four points on the spread, but I’d bet that down to -120.
Detroit’s secondary ranks 32nd in explosive pass defense allowed and now has to face the most explosive passing offense in the NFL. That’s the glaring matchup issue for the Lions as they attempt to slow down a San Francisco offense that has been a supernova for the majority of the season.
The biggest question is whether Detroit’s top-ranked rush defense, according to DVOA, can slow down the 49ers' run game and force Brock Purdy to exclusively beat them through the air. The Lions are also fourth in rush EPA allowed, which is considerably better than Green Bay.
Detroit’s pass rush ranked first in pressure rate this season. The pass rush win rate numbers aren’t nearly as dominant for Detroit, but the 49ers' offensive line took a noticeable step back in their numbers this season. Purdy operated well under pressure for most of the year and head coach Kyle Shanahan had enough offensive talent at his disposal to easily overcome this deficiency, but the 49ers were below league average in pressure rate allowed.
A look at the tale of the tape between these teams, using per-drive stats, paints a picture that San Francisco is overvalued because of holes in its defense. The 49ers aren’t generating as much pressure as you’d expect given the talent, and the defense is 28th in rush EPA since Week 9.
Offensive yards per drive: SF 1, DET 5 Defensive yards per drive allowed: SF 18, DET 22 Net yards per drive: SF 2, DET 8
Another note: In-game decision-making by coaches isn’t as valuable of a difference-maker as social media discourse suggests. It does matter at the margins though, and both coaches will coach toward helping the underdog improve their chances to win this game with their in-game decisions.
Detroit’s secondary ranks 32nd in explosive pass defense allowed and now has to face the most explosive passing offense in the NFL. That’s the glaring matchup issue for the Lions as they attempt to slow down a San Francisco offense that has been a supernova for the majority of the season.
The biggest question is whether Detroit’s top-ranked rush defense, according to DVOA, can slow down the 49ers' run game and force Brock Purdy to exclusively beat them through the air. The Lions are also fourth in rush EPA allowed, which is considerably better than Green Bay.
Detroit’s pass rush ranked first in pressure rate this season. The pass rush win rate numbers aren’t nearly as dominant for Detroit, but the 49ers' offensive line took a noticeable step back in their numbers this season. Purdy operated well under pressure for most of the year and head coach Kyle Shanahan had enough offensive talent at his disposal to easily overcome this deficiency, but the 49ers were below league average in pressure rate allowed.
A look at the tale of the tape between these teams, using per-drive stats, paints a picture that San Francisco is overvalued because of holes in its defense. The 49ers aren’t generating as much pressure as you’d expect given the talent, and the defense is 28th in rush EPA since Week 9.
Offensive yards per drive: SF 1, DET 5 Defensive yards per drive allowed: SF 18, DET 22 Net yards per drive: SF 2, DET 8
Another note: In-game decision-making by coaches isn’t as valuable of a difference-maker as social media discourse suggests. It does matter at the margins though, and both coaches will coach toward helping the underdog improve their chances to win this game with their in-game decisions.
We’ve seen Shanahan’s extreme conservatism hurt his teams in the past, and his end-of-half sequence against Green Bay nearly cost them the game. Even when he has the superior team, as he will on Sunday, Shanahan will kick field goals and punt in situations where it would be best to go for it.
Compare this to Dan Campbell, whose fourth-down aggression will be critically important toward keeping San Francisco’s dominant offense on the sideline as much as possible. Campbell’s decisions always have a chance of backfiring, but as a touchdown road underdog in the NFC Championship game, his aggression is a given and baked into Detroit’s identity.
Detroit has a top-five run offense and the 49ers' inconsistent rush defense is the Lions' path to shortening the game. The Packers held the Niners to just three first-half possessions and the Lions just finished a game with a 61% success rate on early downs against a very good Tampa Bay run defense. If Detroit can replicate that rushing success, it'll be competitive in this game.
Purdy really struggled in the rainy conditions, but we now have a two full-game playoff sample of him not executing nearly as well as he did in the regular season (Dallas last year and Green Bay this year).
We’ve seen Shanahan’s extreme conservatism hurt his teams in the past, and his end-of-half sequence against Green Bay nearly cost them the game. Even when he has the superior team, as he will on Sunday, Shanahan will kick field goals and punt in situations where it would be best to go for it.
Compare this to Dan Campbell, whose fourth-down aggression will be critically important toward keeping San Francisco’s dominant offense on the sideline as much as possible. Campbell’s decisions always have a chance of backfiring, but as a touchdown road underdog in the NFC Championship game, his aggression is a given and baked into Detroit’s identity.
Detroit has a top-five run offense and the 49ers' inconsistent rush defense is the Lions' path to shortening the game. The Packers held the Niners to just three first-half possessions and the Lions just finished a game with a 61% success rate on early downs against a very good Tampa Bay run defense. If Detroit can replicate that rushing success, it'll be competitive in this game.
Purdy really struggled in the rainy conditions, but we now have a two full-game playoff sample of him not executing nearly as well as he did in the regular season (Dallas last year and Green Bay this year).
The Lions defense played only seven games against an opponent that finished in the top half of the league in DVOA. One of those games was Week 1 against the Chiefs, who were debuting two new tackles and missing Travis Kelce. Another was Week 4 against a young Packers offense that hadn't come together yet. Detroit went 1-4 in the other five games with a single one-point win over the Rams and allowed 29.4 points per game and 416 yards per game.
Detroit's defense has been gashed by top offenses, and lately, gashed by just about anyone who can throw the football. In the last five games alone, the Lions allowed 411 and 396 yards in two Nick Mullens games, 345 to Dak Prescott, 367 to Matthew Stafford and 349 to Baker Mayfield. That's 374 yards per game over five games — Brock Purdy is +500 to hit 340 yards at DraftKings, by the way.
Purdy has lost five games as a starter. Three of those came against swarming, nasty Browns, Ravens and Vikings defenses, and another came when he literally lost the ability to throw the ball. The 49ers scored 19 or less in all five losses. In 21 Purdy wins, they average 32.7 points per game and have scored at least 27 all but three times!
That is a remarkable floor for a historically good offense, likely putting us one field goal away from an over — unless the 49ers lose. The Niners have scored 30 or more in 15-of-21 Purdy wins (71%). And remember, Dan Campbell loves to play aggressively and will keep pushing late, which could mean several turnovers on downs and short-field scoring opportunities for San Francisco.
I think the 49ers score at least 30, and I'm compelled to take the Niners' team total escalator.
San Francisco has scored at least 34 in 10 of Purdy's 21 wins. We can play over 33.5 Niners points at +230 at DraftKings. The highest alt I see is over 39.5 at +470. The Lions allowed 37-plus three times this season, and the 49ers scored 42-plus three times, including against the Cowboys and Eagles. S.F TT OV 28.5
The Lions defense played only seven games against an opponent that finished in the top half of the league in DVOA. One of those games was Week 1 against the Chiefs, who were debuting two new tackles and missing Travis Kelce. Another was Week 4 against a young Packers offense that hadn't come together yet. Detroit went 1-4 in the other five games with a single one-point win over the Rams and allowed 29.4 points per game and 416 yards per game.
Detroit's defense has been gashed by top offenses, and lately, gashed by just about anyone who can throw the football. In the last five games alone, the Lions allowed 411 and 396 yards in two Nick Mullens games, 345 to Dak Prescott, 367 to Matthew Stafford and 349 to Baker Mayfield. That's 374 yards per game over five games — Brock Purdy is +500 to hit 340 yards at DraftKings, by the way.
Purdy has lost five games as a starter. Three of those came against swarming, nasty Browns, Ravens and Vikings defenses, and another came when he literally lost the ability to throw the ball. The 49ers scored 19 or less in all five losses. In 21 Purdy wins, they average 32.7 points per game and have scored at least 27 all but three times!
That is a remarkable floor for a historically good offense, likely putting us one field goal away from an over — unless the 49ers lose. The Niners have scored 30 or more in 15-of-21 Purdy wins (71%). And remember, Dan Campbell loves to play aggressively and will keep pushing late, which could mean several turnovers on downs and short-field scoring opportunities for San Francisco.
I think the 49ers score at least 30, and I'm compelled to take the Niners' team total escalator.
San Francisco has scored at least 34 in 10 of Purdy's 21 wins. We can play over 33.5 Niners points at +230 at DraftKings. The highest alt I see is over 39.5 at +470. The Lions allowed 37-plus three times this season, and the 49ers scored 42-plus three times, including against the Cowboys and Eagles. S.F TT OV 28.5
I'm still not sold on Jackson and the passing game in this matchup — see the Chiefs section above. Maybe Baltimore dominates on the ground and finds points that way, but that only chews up the clock, shortens the game and keeps Mahomes on the sidelines, helping an under.
Chiefs games averaged 39.1 points per game this season and went under the posted 44.5 in 13-of-19 games. Ravens games averaged 44.9 points per game, right at the posted total. When Baltimore went over this number, it was almost always because it scored 31+ points. When Kansas City went over this, it's because the Chiefs scored at least 27. I don't see either of those things happening.
Still, Chiefs games have finished with 44 or fewer points in four of Mahomes' 16 playoff games, so I'll duck the full game total and play just the second half. Chiefs unders are 13-6 on the season, but their second-half unders are a ridiculous 17-2. Bettors blindly putting $100 on just Chiefs second-half unders all season would be up $1,373.
The Chiefs are allowing just 5.2 points per game in the second half. The defense has allowed more than a touchdown in only four second halves all season. It's allowed just seven points in two playoff second halves and only 26 points the past seven second halves combined — with four of those against the Bengals, Dolphins and Bills (twice). Of course, Kansas City is only scoring 6.6 points per game in the second half.
Chiefs games are going under the second-half line by 7.7 points per game this season. Keep riding what works in what might turn out to be a defensive battle.
If you're confident the Ravens win, betting Mahomes to throw an interception makes sense at -125. He threw one in 11-of-16 regular season games and he has four interceptions in his three playoff losses, versus just three in the 13 wins. 2ND Half UN 22.5 -112
I'm still not sold on Jackson and the passing game in this matchup — see the Chiefs section above. Maybe Baltimore dominates on the ground and finds points that way, but that only chews up the clock, shortens the game and keeps Mahomes on the sidelines, helping an under.
Chiefs games averaged 39.1 points per game this season and went under the posted 44.5 in 13-of-19 games. Ravens games averaged 44.9 points per game, right at the posted total. When Baltimore went over this number, it was almost always because it scored 31+ points. When Kansas City went over this, it's because the Chiefs scored at least 27. I don't see either of those things happening.
Still, Chiefs games have finished with 44 or fewer points in four of Mahomes' 16 playoff games, so I'll duck the full game total and play just the second half. Chiefs unders are 13-6 on the season, but their second-half unders are a ridiculous 17-2. Bettors blindly putting $100 on just Chiefs second-half unders all season would be up $1,373.
The Chiefs are allowing just 5.2 points per game in the second half. The defense has allowed more than a touchdown in only four second halves all season. It's allowed just seven points in two playoff second halves and only 26 points the past seven second halves combined — with four of those against the Bengals, Dolphins and Bills (twice). Of course, Kansas City is only scoring 6.6 points per game in the second half.
Chiefs games are going under the second-half line by 7.7 points per game this season. Keep riding what works in what might turn out to be a defensive battle.
If you're confident the Ravens win, betting Mahomes to throw an interception makes sense at -125. He threw one in 11-of-16 regular season games and he has four interceptions in his three playoff losses, versus just three in the 13 wins. 2ND Half UN 22.5 -112
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