The implied probability for this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Commanders an 85.7% chance to win. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference. The Commanders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. Dunkel's Pick: Washington (-10).
Williams’ biggest weakness this season has been holding the ball too long. He has taken far too many sacks, although it’s not like his protection has been great either.
The Bears defense ranks 15th, according to DVOA, but it’s a bottom-10 unit in the first half and a top-10 unit in the second half. The Vikings offense is also No. 2 in DVOA in the first quarter, which speaks to head coach Kevin O’Connell’s early scripted plays.
This season, the Bears have been held scoreless in the first quarter seven times with only one touchdown scored. In 10 games, Chicago has scored 13 first-quarter points.
Chicago has been outscored 42-13 in the first quarter, while Minnesota has outscored opponents 82-20 and is 8-1-1 straight-up in the first quarter.
There’s a big difference in the potential ways to play this, too. I’d rather lay the one-half point instead of the -125 moneyline.
You’re sacrificing 55 cents in case of a tie. I’d even consider sprinkling Vikings 1Q -6.5 (+350). Minnesota has hit that in five of its 10 games this season.
NFL Predictions
The Panthers are coming off their bye week, which I think will be beneficial for Young. He improved after getting benched, and I think an extra week to prepare for the defending champs will have done him and head coach Dave Canales very well.
Young has started the Panthers’ last three games. He mostly struggled against Denver with two second-half interceptions, but he ended that game with a touchdown drive.
Since then, Young has only committed one turnover in the Panthers’ last two games, both of which they won. His stats were unspectacular, but avoiding turnovers is hugely important in the NFL.
The Panthers offense is showing signs of promise outside of Young, too.
Chuba Hubbard is having a career season, and rookie RB Jonathan Brooks is entering the fold. Jonathan Mingo was traded, but WR Xavier Legette has stepped up, as has TE Ja'Tavion Sanders. Also, veteran receiver Adam Thielen is nearing a return.
A key trend for this game is that Patrick Mahomes generally struggles as a big favorite. Mahomes is 19-34 against the spread (ATS) since November 2021 when laying more than a field goal. This season, Mahomes has been a double-digit-point favorite four times — he’s 0-3-1.
By the way, seven of Mahomes’ 10 interceptions this season have come in a clean pocket. The Panthers don’t put a lot of pressure on the quarterback, but that might not be much of an issue here.
I rarely bet against the Chiefs, but I’m taking 11 points here on a home 'dog with a low total.
This is a spot that Tua Tagovailoa has historically thrived in.
First off, the Dolphins finally have the Patriots’ number. Miami has won (and covered) four straight games against New England. That’s the Dolphins’ longest such streak against the Pats since 1998-2002, when they got to five straight.
The Dolphins typically take care of business against inferior opponents with their QB1. Tagovailoa is 18-11 against the spread (ATS) against teams below .500 in his career. More specifically, he’s 13-7 ATS against such teams at home.
Miami is also due for some positive regression at home.
The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS at home this season, but they haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015. Obviously, a lot of that 1-4 record has to do with Tagovailoa’s health.
Want more trends? Good, because I have them, courtesy of researcher Evan Abrams.
Tagovailoa thrives as a big favorite. Miami has been a favorite of six or more points 15 times since he entered the NFL and is 14-1 straight-up and 11-4 ATS. The only straight-up loss was last season against the Titans.
My Pick:
Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Trends
My49ers vs. Packers pick is on Green Bay to cover the second-half spread. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
There's a clear edge here with the 49ers missing Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa, and potentially Trent Williams. I'm hesitant to lay 5.5 points, though.
I've focused my bet on the second-half spread. The Packers have been a juggernaut after halftime this season, and whatever magic Kyle Shanahan cooks up with Brandon Allen might wear off in the second half.
I'm not betting either team's moneyline in this game.
Our expert Chris Raybon projects this total at 47, so I'm in line with the market and have no pick.
My Pick:
Football Jesus LV
LA Rams +3
Essler
3* GOY Packers -125
John Rothschild
Eagles
Commanders
Cards
HITMAN
VIKINGS -3 (-115)
DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS
7-UNIT TOPS
COLTS +7.5 (-115) vs lions (1pm)
COMMANDERS -10 (-120) vs cowboys (1pm)
GIANTS +5.5 vs bucs (1pm)
PATS +7.5 at dolphins (1pm)
PACKERS -2.5 vs 49'ers (4:25pm)
EAGLES / RAMS OVER 49 (SNF - 8:20pm)
5-UNIT STRONGS
STEELERS / BROWNS OVER 36.5 (TNF - 8:15pm)
PATS / DOLPHINS OVER 46 (1pm)
BRONCOS -5.5 at raiders (4:05pm)
SEAHAWKS -PK vs cards (4:25pm)
RAVENS / CHARGERS OVER 50 (MNF - 8:15pm)
Jeff Ma
Chargers +3
Dolphins -7
Brad Feinberg
Eagles/Rams under 49.5
Vikings-3.5
Packers -5.5
Colts +7.5
Broncos -5.5
Nick Kostos
Eagles -2.5
Giants +6
Colts +7.5
Patriots +7.5
AJ Hoffman
3* Sea
2* Eagles und 1st half
2* NYG
2* Den
IC
6 UNITS - NINERS +2.5
4 UNITS - RAMS +3
AUGUST YOUNG
4 UNITS - CHARGERS +3
4 UNITS - BUCS U41.5
Steven Nover
1* TEN at HOU over 40
2* 49ers+6
2* NE at MIA over 46
3* PHI at RAMS und 49
RAS
(271) Philadelphia / Los Angeles Over 48
Marco D’Angelo
5% Rams 3
Jason Sharpe
4* (263) Tennessee +8
3* (266) Las Vegas +6
5* (267) Arizona pk
3* (271) Philadelphia -2.5
Vernon Croy
6* (271) Philadelphia -3
Raphael Esparza
4* (262) Miami -7
Jeff Hochman
3* AZ Cardinals +102
3* Colts +7.5 (-115)
Jeff Nadu
Colts +7.5
Fezzik
2* Panthers +11
2* Commanders -10
2* Broncos -5
2* Packers ML -135
Ben Burns
2% Sac Kings 1st H - ML L. -235
Adam Trigger NCAAB
4% Bryant +7.5 (-110)
4% Longwood +8.0 (-115)
4% Texas State +3.5
ZITI SPORTS
NCAAB
(686) Utah Tech +9.5 (-110)
(306642) East Tennessee St -7.5 (-105)
(306626) Akron 147 over -110
(306622) St. Bonaventure 149.5 over -115
NBA
(507) Dallas Mavericks +3 (-110)
(502) Boston Celtics 221 over -110
NHL
(56) Toronto Maple Leafs 6 over +100
NFL
(251) Detroit Lions-7 (-114)
(264) Houston Texans-7 (-116)
(260) New York Giants 40 over -110 (2 BOXES OF ZITI)
(267) Arizona Cardinals +1 (-110)
Established in 1995,
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