The full game line has been holding steady at 49ers -3.5, which I’m pretty much in line with, but I always hesitate to take -3.5 given how often teams win by exactly three. I think the 49ers are the right side given their offense is due for some positive regression in the red zone and the extreme mismatch of Nick Bosa vs. Seahawks offensive tackle Stone Forsythe.
The NFC West always has this weird consistency in terms of how teams match up. For whatever reason, the Cardinals always seem to give the 49ers fits, while San Francisco tends to dominate the Rams and Seahawks. The Niners have won five straight against Seattle by 12 or more points, which tells me they've simply had the upper hand in this particular matchup.
The first-half angle is sneaky here, considering the 49ers tend to get out to early leads only to let teams claw back in the second half. We’ve seen this trend throughout Kyle Shanahan’s career, and it can be attributed to him being an offensive-minded genius who always has a solid opening game script but is a questionable in-game manager. The 49ers are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in the first half this season and just 2-3 for the full game.
I think the most likely outcome in the first half is the 49ers winning by three, so I like the idea of taking -2.5 here to avoid losing by the hook if you’re considering the full game at -3.5.
-2’5 win
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