YTD (NFL): 56-45-3 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 10-8 ATS)
Was heading in the wrong direction so sat out a week. Now there's a game between my Ravens and my old home town team Chargers. Ironically enough, just last night that same stadium played host to the Eagles, whom the Ravens will go against next week in what was a one sided affair. This on the other hand I do not expect to be, as much as I love the Ravens.
This game will feature two Harbaugh brothers, John of the Ravens, and Jim of the Chargers, as well as Greg Roman who led the offense of the Ravens and now leads it for the Chargers. Add in ex Ravens J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards and you can start to see the similarities. Both teams love to run the ball and both have a dynamic QB, though Lamar Jackson gets the nod here. Derrick Henry has done well in his career against the Chargers and the Ravens real defensive deficiency is their secondary, as well as guarding against the TE. I expect Wil Dissly to have a nice game against us but I think we slow down the run game and force the LAC receivers to beat us, which is their weakness imo. Plus McConkey is a bit banged up so that will neutralize that matchup even more.
For the Ravens, going on the road against the LAC has been very kind to them, going 4-1 SU in the last five and 5-2 ATS over the last seven played in Los Angeles. That's pretty good. Add to that mix that there is NO way the Ravens will be looking past this game and John Harbaugh will NOT want to lose to his brother Jim, and you have a really good matchup tonight.
I really really really think the Chargers get ahead in the first half as the Ravens have gone only 5-5-1 and the Chargers have come out strong at 7-2-1 vs. the spread. It's so hard to go against the Ravens given they aren't awful in the first half and score about 14 points per game in the first half but a little less on the road. Conversely, the Chargers score 13.8 but only 12 points at home. So that makes it very close in the FH, which is the only place I see the Chargers advantage.
BALTIMORE (-2.5)...BIG PLAY!!!: Give me King Henry and a motivated Ravens team in a matchup they perennially do well in. I very much appreciate the Chargers this year but not tonight. Just too much big brother vs little brother (literally) and in the end the Ravens bully them to a victory. The line is short and Tucker is still Tucker. Plus the public is all over the MNF home underdog tonight. Just not myself.
Hoping everyone had a great few weeks. Thanksgiving is nearly upon us. Do your own research and, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all....
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