NFL TODAY PLAYS (11/10)

YTD (NFL):  54-41-3 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 9-7 ATS)

Dropped two big plays this week meaning 4 total units.  Not really stoked about it as both games were FH overs and both games ended up going over, but neither in the FH.  Even though numbers and trends pointed to it, didn't happen for us.  So going to stay a bit more in check here so I don't have an upside down week.  

OVER 38.5 (NE/CHI):  Both of these QB's are going to want to prove something being they were selected $1 and #3 in this years draft.  The Bears have gone OVER at home rather frequently (3 of 4 this year) and the Patriots have managed to get over the number in 2 out of their past 3 road tilts.  I only look at the past 3 because it was the Jacoby Brissett show before then and we know how futile he was.

NEW ORLEANS (+3.5)...BIG PLAY!!!:  One stat of note in a matchup that is very familiar for both teams: New Orleans is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Atlanta.  So getting 3.5 seems like a really good spot though I'm guessing there will be plenty of people thinking that the Saints are lifeless, and I think that was the case because of their ex coach, Dennis Allen, who was let go this week.  He had little to no idea how to manage a game and that cost them quite a bit.  I expect a rebound here and a potential outright victory 

INDIANAPOLIS (+4):  It hurt me to post this b/c I really don't think Indy is as good as their record but they are 7-2 ATS this year and playing at home against Buffalo, a team they have performed well against.  As I stated a few weeks ago when I last backed them, they don't ever really give up and keep coming back when you think they are dead.  I think Flacco is the right move at QB and the Bills are banged up a bit at WR so I expect them to run the ball more today.  Not that it matters b/c they have been able to score wherever they play but I think the Colts also find the end zone on numerous occasions and this one comes down to the wire in a game the Colts really need.

That's all for the AM slate.  Hoping everyone is having a profitable weekend, mine will be dictated a lot on these plays.  Would have loved to have at least split this weeks plays but alas that didn't happen so I intend on sweeping these three.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

GL  on your plays @LAGameofInches 

Your book is screwing you. NE/ Chi is 37 here in Vegas. 

@Vegas_local

So be it.  Not much I can do at this point I don't think the point will make a different tbh so You are in better shape if you tail the play.  I also like props but seem to not get attractive lines on many of the player props.  I use a local book who is big nationally so I don't have to lay out and have a larger credit roll

Annnnd as I just went back I saw it at 37.5 so you are correct.  I played it earlier and should have waited.  I will still back it at the number posted, I'm not going to rebet it but you are right @Vegas_local.  Guess I'm not being screwed after all just screwing myself but it all evens out with regards to line movements as long as you play the games at around the same time.

@LAGameofInches

 Bol today

Good luck today. I always enjoy reading your write ups on your picks

love the plays

new orleans and indi my top 2

sweep your board!

Not sure why you get so much disrespect here on a regular basis? Over the years you have always done well and glad to see you still posting your plays despite all the bullshitt. 

Good Luck! 

@LAGameofInches

Thanks for saying that.  I have wondered the same.  Really don't say crap outside than post my plays which I spend time analyzing and the post the record to boot.  I've never claimed perfection but over the years I have been quite successful and love helping others.  Used to work in a book on the MLB side of things so happy when the seasons turn.

Good luck to you 

@LAGameofInches

BOL and I love that first pick of yours today.  “Laissez les bons temps rouler”

@LAGameofInches

 Not arguing with you. You’re a solid capper. Don’t take it as a sign of disrespect. I’m just pointing out the advantages of being able to shop lines. 

Definitely no disrespect taken.  If you read some of the other puzzling posts during other weeks you'd see what disrespect looks like.  Your posting actually made me go back and look and actually see the line must have dropped right after I had made my play so was just confirming your accuracy and my inability to lock in the best number 

@LAGameofInches

 No harm done, 2-2 for early games, I only played the big one, great call!!!

@thehuntman

@LAGameofInches

 #11 & 13 

Just keep doing what you're doing don't even respond to the negativity