YTD (NFL): 47-35-3 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 7-5 ATS)
Gotten myself back on solid footing after having a down spell. The NBA has been very kind to me so far. Today's slate doesn't leave a ton that I really love but there are some solid spots that I am going to make BIG PLAYS, though they are mostly on totals. I do see some teams having a lot of trouble in the first half of their matchups:
NEW ORLEANS FH (-4): David Carr is back and I'm not sure he's going to be overly rusty as the team has definitely missed him. But they are playing against Carolina, a team they have dismantled recently and with Bryce Young still set to be QB, I see him having a LOT of issues with the NO defense. Add to that Carolina is 1-7 ATS in the first half and I see a really good opportunity here.
UNDER 52 (DAL/ATL)...BIG PLAY!!!: I am very miffed at all of this love for the Cowboys. In all my years I have never understood how they are "America's team". I think they are constantly overrated and have an offense that is really good in garbage time but that's about it. I'm not sure if they can even win in Atlanta but I do know that the UNDER has cashed in 6 of Atlanta’s last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas. Moreover, the Atlanta defense has been MUCH better at home, though it might not seem like it.
OVER 49.5 (MIAMI/BUFFALO)...BIG PLAY!!!: I think Tua coming back is great for the Dolphins and maybe it didn't seem like it last week, but it will this week where the Bills seems to always play high scoring affairs against the Dolphins. in fact, the total has gone OVER in 9 of Buffalo’s last 11 games when playing at home against Miami and I don't see how this stops here. The Miami defense is not very good and I expect the Bills to get out quickly and ahead, especially in the first half which Miami has been dead last in. BUT, I don't play the half here because they have also not had Tua for most of those games, but I do heavily back the over.
LAC ML (-120): Cleveland are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against LA Chargers, that's all I need to see. Sure, if they beat both Harbaugh brothers in consecutive weeks I'll let them take my money. But don't kid yourselves if you don't think that John has spoken to Jim about some adjustments to be made against Jameis, who I do not see repeating what he did last week.
As for the Ravens, I bet them early in the week to go OVER 44 points, but the total has ticked up to 46.5 so I can't get behind that. I do think they will score quite a few points today even against a solid Denver defense and Bo Nix has seemed to do quite well on the road. The Ravens defense is leaky as we all saw last week. I don't see them losing this game, but also not sure I see them winning by 10 with a back door cover possible. I'm laying off this game and taking the games above with a couple more for the later games.
Keep comments positive and, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
on your plays @LAGameofInches 
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