YTD (NFL): 62-47-3 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 12-9 ATS)
Well the game I had my eye on ended up being a BIG PLAY loss, mostly due to the inability of the Chiefs to score TD's, which seems to be a common theme with them this year. I'm expecting things to get a bit better with Pacheco back and Hopkins starting to rake but apologies for any loss people might have incurred. We will make it up today.
A few games I have played and a couple more that I have my eyes on. Just so everyone who is reading this is clear, I am a HUGE Ravens fan and have hit on close to 80% on their games since posting. But I'm human and prone to mistakes as well. I just do NOT see how they lose today to an Eagles team that is quite good but I think inferior to the Ravens, especially on the road.
OVER 21.5 FH (TEN/WAS)...BIG PLAY!!!: The NFL is strange in that certain teams become darlings and then over the course of subsequent weeks, get taken more seriously and come back down to earth. On the other hand, some teams are left for dead only to start showing up later in the year when some cohesion happens. That is how I feel about this game. I really like the Titans ability to get down the field of late and on the road they really do score. But the Commanders are a dismal 0-6 ATS in the games they have played against Tennessee at home, and I think that continues here in a close game. So why the first half? Really because both of these teams come out scoring in the FH of games with the Titans averaging a respectable 12.8 points in the FH on the road and the Commanders being the 5th best 1st half scoring team averaging over 14 at home. That's a combined 27 points (when adding in the decimals) and I would be shocked, to the point I'm putting money on it, if the Commanders come out flat again as they did against Dallas last weekend. Play this with confidence!
PITTSBURGH (+3): I do not understand anyone that has Cincinnati in this game because the Steelers are a stunning 17-5 SU in their last 22 vs. Cincinnati and 20-4 SU when playing IN Cincinnati. Given how this year has gone and how vital this game is for Pittsburgh, I just can't go against those numbers. They owned the Colts too some weeks back and the end result is exactly what I think it will be today as well. Sprinkle some on the ML for good measure.
OVER 45 (ARI/MIN): I live in AZ now and don't really love the Cardinals but I do get a good amount of coverage on them and they will be motivated to get some points this week after a snoozefest last week. But they are good with that because they are rolling right now, the problem is that they are now rolling into Minnesota where they have gone 0-11 in the past 11 played there. That's as horrible as it can be. BUT, they do score points as the total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona’s last 11 games when playing on the road against Minnesota. I have a strong feeling that continues here but with such a poor record in this matchup, I will keep this a normal play and potentially put Minnesota in a ML parlay as well.
I will be back on in a bit for sure later for the Ravens game. Would be great to get these first 3 under our belts. Houston should smoke Jacksonville whom I think are the worst NFL team regardless of their QB. And just for good measure the Patriots also own the Colts, but I have lost enough on NE to not back them today. Just some notes. As always, do your own research and, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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