YTD (NFL): 69-51-6 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 14-9-1 ATS)
Streaky as I am this isn't a good omen having lost 4 out of the past 5. But it's a big card today and there is a LOT to like on it. So I do have a handful or so of plays including more than normal BIG PLAYS that I will be on as well as my fantasy football playoffs. And the HUGE play counts just the same as a big play, I just really love that angle:
OVER 44 (WAS/NO)...BIG PLAY!!!:. This game should get over the number despite the QB situation for the Saints. In truth, the Saints do have a multitude of injuries but I just have a feeling that this game will be high scoring as over the past 10 H2H's, the OVER is 9-1 ATS. I have a strong suspicion this Jake Haener will come in slinging with nothing to lose. If he doesn't, no worries as the Commanders have averaged 38 points vs. the bottom feeding teams in the NFL this season. Play this with confidence.
CINCINNATI (-5)...BIG PLAY!!!: The ONLY thing that worries me here is that the Titans are 17-7 SU at home vs. the Bengals. BUT...that was really due to many years ago. Gone is Derrick Henry who torments the Bengals and IN are Burrow, Chase, Higgins and an offense that the Titans will work hard to keep up with. Tennessee does play better defense at home but I just see this game getting scoring runs and, if that doesn't happen, it's because the Titans can't score. On top of all of that, the Bengals are actually 6-1 ATS away from home and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 played in Tennessee. That's more recent metrics and I prefer to look at that given we are now about to enter 2025.
KANSAS CITY FH (-3): The Chiefs score more FH points on the road than they do at home and Cleveland does the exact opposite. It will be pretty brutal weather but with Butker back I am confident laying 3. Furthermore, a usually reliable Dustin Hopkins, the K for Cleveland, hasn't done quite as well this season, especially of late. I think the Chiefs are no stranger to wanting to control the clock and make sure they head into halftime with the lead. Plus, the Browns are 4-8-1 ATS in the FH of games this year.
OVER 23 FH (MIAMI/HOUSTON)...HUGE PLAY!!!: Houston is the BEST FH team coming in at 11-2 ATS this year in the first half. Miami isn't anywhere as good but you have to consider they had lifeless QB play most of the season waiting for Tua to return. Well, he's back now and they have AVERAGED over 14 points per game in the FH over the past 3 games with him under center, much higher than their season average of a paltry 9.3 points. The Texans have been scoring all year in the FH and then somehow disappearing in the second half, which I think at least somewhat continues. Given that Houston averages 17 points at home in the first half and their 3 game FH scoring average is about on par with what their season is, this is really an easy play. Math shows that 17 (houston FH) + 14 (Miami FH) = 31 points, MUCH higher than the 23 in the first half total.
More to come, especially for later games. I wanted to get this out a bit earlier if I can even call it that at this juncture. Keep comments positive, do your own research and, tail or fade, good luck to all...
Hot Forum Topics
