YTD (NFL): 69-48-5 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 14-9 ATS)
Been having a great season and even more so of late, going 11-3-2 ATS in the last 16 plays. Some have been easy winners which are always appreciated after so many of those losses came by a hair. In some ways I prefer to get blown out than lost on last possession or by the half points. Overall great season and looking to finish it off strong though each week is its own grind. There are a handful of spots I really like this week and I have a busy day so wont' be on here much for anyone that is interested or wants to tail.
OVER 46 (LV/TB): I went over on LV last week on the road and told people not to expect much from them in the FH, as they seem to really pile up points in the second half for whatever reason. That worked out quite well as they went over the game with KC but just barely, and you can expect 18 points from them. Meaning that the Bucs will have to put up 28 on their end to get over the number and I think with a full complement of offensive pieces, along with the fact that the total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games against Las Vegas and we have a play. Lastly, the Raiders have been an over machine especially on on the road this season so I've properly backed this play.
MIAMI (-6)...BIG PLAY!!!: This is pretty crazy to me. Aaron Rodgers is NOT good, can't move, and wont' have Breece Hall today. This is in fact more of a play ON the Dolphins than on Rodgers as the Dolphins have OWNED the Jets, especially in Miami where they are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the past 6 games played there. I do think they are playing MUCH better with Tua and that last week the weather really thwarted them. I expect a big game out of Achane and potentially the same type of big showing for Tyreek Hill. And if you need any more convincing, just know that the Dolphins are 10-2 ATS in the past 12 played against the Jets. These are the types of numbers that make a difference to me and prompt a big play.
ATLANTA FH (+3.5): This JUST missed a BIG PLAY and that's because Minnesota has been solid out the gates, though they are a LOT worse at home, which is really why I am backing Atlanta. The Falcons have also typically come out strong in the opening half and have been better on the road, vs. Minnesota being worse at home. Kirk Cousins will be returning to where he spent so many years so he will be motivated and this will be bitter sweet. Giving a hook with a field goal in what should otherwise be a close game is super appealing for me, though I expect the Vikings to come out on top when all is said and done as I don't think they will lose to the QB they let walk.
Came very very close to adding the OVER in the Cleveland/Pittsburgh game and I do think that number is a bit low with both teams having strong trends to the over in this matchup but I'm going to hold tight with the three above plays. I won't be around for the later games as I have some business stuff to tackle but I might add to the thread at some point. As always do your own research and be wary of people who dont keep records. It's not about page views, it's about winning. Tail or fade, good luck to all...
let’s get some W
today!!! 
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