YTD (NFL): 84-74-6 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 18-15-1 ATS)
Well, it hasn't been a strong end to the year for me. No excuses, just started to see things differently and latch on to games that weren't as strong despite not changing how I actually handicap the games. So it's been a frustrating end and to make things worse just went through a move from hell which is why I wasn't able to post on the Ravens last night. I was encouraged to see Pittsburgh give max effort knowing they would have to face a Ravens squad in the playoffs and trying to keep the Bengals from the playoffs altogether. Good game to watch and I'm hoping there are a few more of them today albeit with some severely handicapped rosters. Going to just jump right into it before watching Liverpool smash Manchester United!
GREEN BAY FH (-7)...BIG PLAY!!!: I will go to my handicapping grave with this one. Really need to take some of the overthinking out both teams have a full complement of players and the Packers are honed in on winning this game for seeding purposes. They will not lose at home to a lifeless Chicago team that is just awful on the road and even worse in the first half. In fact, the Bears are a putrid 4-11 ATS in the FH of games this year (0-7 ATS on the road!!!) while the Packers are one of the best at 9-7 ATS in the FH (5-3 ATS at home). I'm not sure what else to say on this game there is never a sure thing in the NFL but given that the Bears AVERAGE an NFL WORST 4.1 FH points on the road and Green Bay chimes in at over 15 points in the FH at home, there is a TON of wiggle room here and an exceptional spot for a big play.
OVER 43.5 (WAS/DAL): This would be a big play if guys like CeeDee Lamb were playing but given all the stakes still at hand, the fact that these guys are divisional teams squaring off and that there are crazy trends to the over when both of these teams square off (the total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington’s last 9 games when playing on the road against Dallas and 4 out of the last 5) as well as when Washington has hit the road (the total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington’s last 11 games away) this is a very strong angle. I dont' see either defenses really coming to the rescue and while I know Trey Lance might get some play today, that might not be so awful as he will use his legs and I think be able to stretch the Commanders if he does scramble. Plus he will be super motivated for game action should that happen.
NEW ENGLAND (+3.5): What a fitting way for me to post one of my last plays of the 2024 season than with a team that has cost me a TON of money this year. I have to admit I kept trying to buy back into some resurgence that never did happen. Well, that put first year HC Jarred Mayo on the hot seat after just his first coaching season and so he will be fighting for his job here. With Drake Maye playing and most of the Bills starters NOT, as well as a 15-5 SU record against the Bills in the last 20 played in NE, this is a good spot for backing them in a game they will hopefully bring max effort in. I'm personally going to take them on the ML too in a parlay with Liverpool if anyone has interest.
Those are it for the early slate of game, some real stink boats also exist. Almost took the NO/TB total UNDER since I just can't see NO scoring much and they've gone under the total in 15 of the past 21 played in TB. But I think the three games with a mega play on GB is enough for me given the early slate of games. I will definitely be back later and hope everyone is having a strong week. As always, do your own research and, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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