YTD (NFL): 16-8-1 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 2-0 ATS)
I have lost the past two games so I intend to put a stop to that. I now realize how bad the Patriots really are and how flukey it was that they won. Which makes me also realize how not good the Bengals are. NO team is worse than Carolina and I have zero interest in their games even with Andy Dalton. They have an organizational problem and the QB is just a factor of that. I do not see him changing things over night there.
This week is interesting given injuries and teams that are somewhat depleted playing on the road. I am trying not to read other threads before making my own plays as I have researched these and think that I have the best chance to win with my own plays. I guess only time will tell:
INDIANAPOLIS PK (-120): I'm really surprised I can get this number and this is so low. I do expect the Bears defense to play well and they are good and can probably create some issues for Anthony Richardson. But he is a running QB and also has Jonathan Taylor, arguably one of the best RB's in the league. I don't see the Bears offensive line improving that much but the Colts defense is NOT very good. This game could be tight but I like the Colts in backing this stat: Chicago are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on a Sunday when playing on the road.
PITTSBURGH FH (-1/2): The Steelers have a home opener. They have one of the best defenses. They are playing against a banged up LAC team with a running game that is no secret and an injured QB. Come on. I'm a Ravens fan and even I can get behind them. Why the first half?! Because they will come out firing and I feel that even though Harbaugh kept his group on the East Coast for this game, I just can't see the Steelers heading into the half disappointed with a coach like Mike Tomlin getting them ready for the Chargers obvious game script.
MINNESOTA (+1.5): This one almost didn't make it but the Texans are so awful as road favorites and the Vikings are pretty healthy, playing at home, and really still underrated b/c of Darold's past inept years. This is a different team and I think with no Mixon the Texans will find it hard to open up as much of the passing lanes for Stroud and company. The Vikings can get after the QB and Stroud is not really a running QB so I have to side with the home team here to get it done in what should be a close game.
PHILADELPHIA FH ML (+115): I am backing this because I think that the Eagles will come out hungry after their loss last week and there is NO way that the Saints come out firing the same way they have the past couple of weeks vs this Eagles defense, which is WAY different than that of Carolina. I don't think last week was a fluke for the Saints winning in Dallas but I do think that it's hard to keep that type of motivation week on week, even if they are back at home. I expect the Eagles to try and control the first half but I'm not confident in Sirianni going into the break and coming out with that same type of intensity. I will take the Eagles in the first half though.
I will be back for later games and a play on Ravens which will be a BIG PLAY. I can't imagine the spread adjusting in either direction for that game and I can't see the Ravens at 0-3 so I'll be putting my money on Lamar who is 20-3 vs. the NFC. Do your own research, keep the comments positive and, as always, tail or fade good luck to all...
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