NFL Week 1 Records Stats and Trends

Question

Week 1 is the hardest week to predict so they say. With all the off-season moves in free agency and coaching personnel changes plus other football-related factors to account for, it&#x27;s a challenge to handicap teams without any current performance data to go on. So, what is the best way to approach Week 1? Do we look at stats from last season? How about past trends? I have found some Week 1 trends from other sites but...while some of these trends still hold true they are a little bit outdated. So I will use this thread to update them and add more. If you have any trends or stats to share feel free to do so. Will try to make it comprehensive and accessible all in one thread.

Digitalkarma · Answer

Week 1 is the hardest week to predict so they say. With all the off-season moves in free agency and coaching personnel changes plus other football-related factors to account for, it&#x27;s a challenge to handicap teams without any current performance data to go on. So, what is the best way to approach Week 1? Do we look at stats from last season? How about past trends? I have found some Week 1 trends from other sites but...while some of these trends still hold true they are a little bit outdated. So I will use this thread to update them and add more. If you have any trends or stats to share feel free to do so. Will try to make it comprehensive and accessible all in one thread.

Digitalkarma · Answer

Question: How do home teams perform in Week 1 of the regular season?Home teams winning in week 1 year by year:           SU   ATS(closing) (opening)2014: 10-6  6-10              7-8-12013: 9-7    8-7-1             7-7-22012: 9-7    8-8                8-82011: 10-6  7-8-1             7-92010: 12-4  9-5-2             10-62009: 9-7    6-9-1             6-9-12008: 10-6  9-7                9-72007: 10-6  9-6-1             9-6-12006: 5-112005: 11-52004: 9-72003: 10-62002: 10-62001: 7-82000: 8-7-----------1999: 7-8 1998: 8-71997: 10-51996: 11-41995: 8-71994: 8-61993: 9-51992: 8-51991: 10-41990: 11-31989: 6-81988: 8-61987: 11-31986: 8-61985: 9-51984: 5-91983: 2-121982: 5-91981: 6-81980: 6-81979: 6-81978: 7-71977: 9-51976: 7-71975: 7-61974: 8-51973: 8-51972: 6-71971: 8-4-11970: 6-7Home teams winning straight up are:139-99 (0.584%) since 2000229-153(0.599%) since 1990295-227(0.565%) since 1980367-288(0.560%) since 1970Home team ATS in week 1 as favorite or dog since 2007:62-60-6 against closing line63-60-5 vs opening lineHome favorites are 40-41-6 ATSHome dogs are 22-19 ATS-------------------------------------------If we can predict how many home teams will win in week 1 this year that would be the first step. the average record for home teams winning in week 1 since the NFL went with 32 team 16 game format is around 9-7. We are looking at possibly 9 to 10 home teams winning it SU in Week 1 of 2015-16 season. Home dogs have had better success percentage wise but that&#x27;s because there aren&#x27;t many. This season though we are looking at a whopping 7 home dogs(Bears, Bills, Redskins, Jaguars, Rams, Raiders, Falcons) , could be less by the closing line but haven&#x27;t seen many in a good while. Could see at least 3 of them having a chance to win outright. Which 9 or 10 teams will come out on top?

Digitalkarma · Answer

*using records from NFL.com, thefootballlines, and Covers database

porcelainfist · Answer

great, using this info I can pick a side and pray. Surprised that it&#x27;s nearly fifty fifty except a slight advantage to the home team? What could that mean?

Coloneljim · Answer

Atlanta is 8-3-1ats in first games at home since 1980 and 15-7 ats as a dog... they are playing the Eagles in Game 1.

Jacksonville 8-3 ats at home first games since 1980. 7-3 as a home dog. They have Carolina at EverBank this year.

NY Jets are 4-10 ats in first games at home since 1980. 7-8 ats as a fav which they should be vs the Browns.

Coloneljim · Answer

Packers are 0-3 su &amp; ats in their last 3 opening games. They open at Chicago this year.  The trend could end here.

porcelainfist · Answer

this is the stupidest thread I have ever seen. The 1980 Falcons? give me a break.

Digitalkarma · Answer

nice. thank you Colonel. keep em coming yeah i think Packers may buck the trend this year. they should win this  one no doubt but think Bears could cover the spread if the closing line is 7.5 or higher which i have no doubt the line will keep rising. Packers are not 1st quarter of the season kind of a team and don&#x27;t start heating it up until October when Arod is dangerous

THEMUGG · Answer

Good info DK, but trends going back any more than about 5 years are kind of worthless in the NFL.

Digitalkarma · Answer

true that mugg.

Digitalkarma · Answer

How do Defending Super Bowl Champs fare in week 1?the records i have found on some sites were a little inaccurate but this is what i&#x27;ve gathered. Super Bowl champs are 30-15 SU overall and an impressive 22-4 record at home since &#x27;70. 9-4-2 Ats, 13-2 SU since 20009-9-2 ats, 16-4 SU since 199511-12-2 ats, 19-6 SU since 199012-16-2 ats, 23-12 SU since 198030-15 SU since 1970games over 50 pts: 7-8 since 2000, 16-29 since 1970super bowl champs at home: 15-2 SU since 199017-4 SU since 198022-4 SU since 1970 super bowl champs on road:4-4 SU since 19906-8 SU since 19808-11 SU since 1970SEASON BY SEASON RESULTS2014: Packers 16 Seahawks 36, -4.5 W2013: Ravens 27 Broncos 49, &#x2B;7.5 L2012: Cowboys 24 Giants 17, -3.5 L2011: Saints 34 Packers 42, -5.0 W2010: Vikings 9 Saints 14, -5.0 W2009: Titans 10 Steelers 13, -6.0 W2008: Redskins 7 Giants 16, -5.0 W2007: Saints 10 Colts 41, -6.0 W2006: Dolphins 17 Steelers 28 W2005: Raiders 20 Patriots 30 W2004: Colts 24 Patriots 27 W2003: Buccaneers 17 Eagles 0 W2002: Steelers 14 Patriots 30 W2001: Bears 6 Ravens 17 W2000: Broncos 36 Rams 41 W1999: Dolphins 38 Broncos 21 L1998: Patriots 21 Broncos 27 w1997: Bears 24 Packers 38 w1996: Cowboys 6 Bears 22 L1995: 49ers 24 Saints 22 W1994: Cowboys 26 Steelers 9 W1993: Cowboys 16 Redskins 35 L1992: Redskins 10 Cowboys 23 L1991: 49ers 14 Giants 16 W1990: 49ers 13 Saints 12 W1989: 49ers 30 Colts 24 W1988: Redskins 20 Giants 27 L1987: Giants 19 Bears 34 L1986: Browns 31 Bears 41 W1985: 49ers 21 Vikings 28 L1984: Raiders 24 Oilers 14 W1983: Cowboys 31 Redskins 30 L1982: Raiders 23 49ers 17 L1981: Raiders 7 Broncos 9 L1980: Oilers 17 Steelers 31 W1979: Steelers 16 Patriots 13 W1978: Colts 0 Cowboys 38 W1977: Chargers 0 Raiders 24 W1976: Steelers 28 Raiders 31 L1975: Steelers 37 Chargers 0 W1974: Dolphins 24 Patriots 34 L1973: 49ers 13 Dolphins 21 W1972: Eagles 6 Cowboys 28 W1971: Jets 0 Colts 22 W1970: Chiefs 10 Vikings 27 L

eggy45 · Answer

Digitalkarma;  Thanks for the info, I like using trends.

Digitalkarma · Answer

you&#x27;re welcome.

Digitalkarma · Answer

i know there is already a thread on this trend, but expanding it a little further. winning on the road is difficult for the Super Bowl runners up in week 1. 8 times in 21 trips since 1970. Seahawks will face a very hostile environment in St. Louis

Super Bowl Losers playing week 1

5-10 SU, 2-13 ATS since 2000

10-15 SU, 7-18 ATS since 1990

15-20 SU, 9-20-1 ATS since 1980 and '85 respectively

24-21 SU since 1970

Road:

2-8 since 2000

2-11 since 1990

4-13 since 1980

8-13 since 1970

Home:

3-2 since 2000

8-4 since 1990

11-7 since 1980

16-8 since 1970

2014: Colts 24 Broncos 31, -8 W L

2013: Packers 28 49ers 34, -5 W W

2012: Patriots 34 Titans 13, +5 W w

2011: Steelers 7 Ravens 35, -1 L L

2010: Colts 24 Texans 34, -2 L L

2009: 49ers 20 Cardinals 16, -5 L L

2008: Chiefs 10 Patriots 17, -17 W L

2007: Bears 3 Chargers 14, -7 L L

2006: Seahawks 9 Lions 6, +6 W L

2005: Eagles 10 Falcons 14, +1.5 L L

2004: Packers 24 Panthers 14, -3 L L

2003: Raiders 20 Titans 25, -3 L L

2002: Rams 16 Broncos 23, +3 L L

2001: Giants 20 Broncos 31, -7 L L

2000: Titans 13 Bills 16, +1 L L

1999: Vikings 17 Falcons 14 L

1998: Lions 19 Packers 38 W

1997: Chargers 7 Patriots 41 W

1996: Steelers 9 Jaguars 24 L

1995: Chargers 7 Raiders 17 L

1994: Jets 23 Bills 03 L

1993: Patriots 14 Bills 38 W

1992: Rams 7 Bills 40 W

1991: Dolphins 31 Bills 35 W

1990: Broncos 9 Raiders 14 L

1989: Bengals 14 Bears 17 L

1988: Seahawks 21 Broncos 14 L

1987: Seahawks 17 Broncos 40 W

1986: Colts 3 Patriots 33 W

1985: Dolphins 23 Oilers 26 L

1984: Dolphins 35 Redskins 17 L

1983: Dolphins 12 Bills 0 W

1982: Oilers 6 Bengals 27 W

1981: Eagles 24 Giants 10 W

1980: Lions 41 Rams 20 L

1979: Cowboys 22 Cardinals 21 W

1978: Raiders 6 Broncos 14 W

1977: Cowboys 16 Vikings 10 L

1976: Eagles 7 Cowboys 27 W

1975: 49ers 17 Vikings 27 W

1974: Vikings 32 Packers 17 W

1973: Chargers 0 Redskins 38 W

1972: Dolphins 20 Chiefs 10 W

1971: Cowboys 49 Bills 37 W

1970: Chiefs 10 Vikings 27 W

Digitalkarma · Answer

next installment.. How do NFL rookie head coaches do in week 1.

undermysac · Answer

DK, good to start doing work now on the nfl. I will be on the rams as home dogs no doubt week 1.

#1 Nick Foles
No elite QB by any means, let's just ask him to manage the game. In 2013 he had a ridiculous 27/2 td to int ratio. Now that's a highly unlikely achievement to reproduce, but if he could get to a similar +- in that area the rams will be extremely dangerous. How bad did the rams need a qb that would just merely not turn over the ball last year...

#2 Nick Farely

Are you kidding me? This guy will be plugging up the middle right next to 2nd year man Arron Donald. The experience and teaching there is priceless. Linebackers will flurish. Along w/ Quin and Long at the ends what team could have a better D line. Seahawks trade away Max Unger(arguably the best run blocking center in football)

#3 Jeff Fischer

The guy hasn't won over 8 games in 10 years. But I think he's due. St. Louis is small market and hard to attain high profile free agents. But their drafting has been great over the past 3 years, thanks to the redskins trading away the farm for craving RGIII. The rams are from top to bottom nearly a complete team minus a high powered passing attack,(a big name WR/QB) If they can get smart QB play out of foles, I think they can go far in a seahawks type of fassion this year.

Digitalkarma · Answer

i like it. the Rams D should be improved from last season with Akeem Ayers and Nick Fairley. I also remember Quinn was out in the 1st half of season and when he got back the Rams pass rushing went nuts.... imagine if Quinn was healthy the Rams could have certainly won that division. if you can stop Lynch and Jimmy Graham and get to Wilson early the Seahawks are beatable. i see these teams splitting the series winning at home.

Digitalkarma · Answer

How Do Rookie NFL Coaches do in Week 1?wouldn&#x27;t say it is the most comprehensive list as i&#x27;m sure i missed some coaches but from 2000 onward should be more accurate. The road team seems to have had better success covering the spread, don&#x27;t know why..maybe less pressure on the road than performing at home in front of their fans? There are only 3 rookie coaches this season: Todd Bowles, Dan Quinn, and Jim Tomsula. Two are favorites and the other a dog. I imagine rookie head coaches as home favorites hasn&#x27;t been a good mix. 2-3 ATS in the last 5, Bill O Brien won and covered as a favorite but..against another rookie head coach so that doesn&#x27;t count. Harbaugh beat Pete Carroll in his debut with the 49ers, and the 3 ats losses were from the likes of the Browns and Dolphins etc.Rookie Coaches in week 1overall: 44-79, since 2000: 25-44home: 21-40, since 2000: 14-24road: 23-39, since 2000: 11-20ats since 2007: 19-19-2 road ats: 12-9-1 home ats: 7-10-11976: 0-1, L: person Vermeil1978: 1-0, W: Marv Levy1979: 1-3, W: Tom Flores L: Ray Perkins, Bill Walsh, Ron Erhardt1981: 1-1, W: Dan Reeves L: Joe Gibbs1982: 0-1, L: Mike Ditka1983: 0-1, L: Bill Parcells1984: 0-2, L: Sam Wyche, Marty Schottenheimer1986: 0-1, L: Jim Mora1988: 1-1, W: Mike Shanahan L: Lindy Infante1989: 2-2, W: George Seifert, Art Shell L: Jimmy Johnson, Wayne Fontes1990: 0-2, L: Bruce Coslet, Joe Bugel1991: 1-1, W: Rich Kotite L: Bill Belichick1992: 3-2, W: Bill Cowher, Dave Shula, Dennis Green L: Bobby Ross, Mike Holmgren1993: 1-1, W: Wade Phillips L: Dave Wannstedt1994: 2-2, W: Pete Carroll, Barry Switzer L: June Jones, Norv Turner, Jeff Fisher1995: 2-4. W: Mike White, Rich Brooks L: Ray Rhodes, Dom Capers, Dennis Erickson, Tom Coughlin----------1996: 0-2, L: Tony Dungy, Vince Tobin1997: 1-2, W: Jim Fassel L: Steve Mariucci, Kevin Gilbride1998: 1-1, W: Chan Gailey L: Jon Gruden1999: 2-4, W: person Jauron, Mike Riley L: Brian Billick, Chris Palmer, Gunther Cunningham, Andy Reid2000: 2-4, W: Al Groh, Mike Martz L: Jim Haslett, person Lebeau, Dave Campo, Mike Sherman2001: 0-5, L: Dave Mcginnis, Greg Williams, Butch Davis, Marty Morninwheg, Herm Edwards2002: 3-1, W: John Fox, Bill Callahan, Steve Spurrier L: Mike Tice2003: 0-2, L: Marvin Lewis, Jack Del Rio2004: 0-2, L: Mike Mulaurkey, Lovie Smith2005: 2-1, W: Mike Nolan, Nick Saban L: Romeo Crennel2006: 3-3, W: Eric mangini, Sean Payton, Brad Childress L: Rod Marinelli, Mike McCarthy, Gary Kubiak2007: 1-4, W: Mike Tomlin L: Bobby Petrino, Cam Cameron, Lane Kiffin, Ken Wisenhunt2008: 2-2, W: Mike Smith, John Harbaugh L: Tony Sparano, Jim Zorn2009: 4-5, W: Josh McDaniels, Jim Caldwell, Rex Ryan, Mike Singletary L: Jim Schwartz, Todd Haley, Tom Cable, Steve Spagnuolo, Raheem Morris2011: 2-5, W: Jim Harbaugh, Hue Jackson L: Jason Garrett, Leslie Frazier, Ron Riviera, Pat Shurmur, Mike Munchak2012: 1-3, W: Greg Schiano L: Joe Philbin, Dennis Allen, Chuck Pagano2013: 2-5, W: Marc Trestman, Chip Kelly L: Bruce Arians, Doug Marrone, Rob Chudzinski, Gus Bradley, Mike McCoy2014: 2-2. W: Bill O Brien, Mike Zimmer L: Jay Gruden, Mike Pettine

Digitalkarma · Answer

New England Patriots Week 1 History since 2000SU: 11-4Home: 7-1Away: 4-3ATS: 6-8-1Home: 3-4-1Away: 3-4O/U: 10-5Home: 6-2Away: 4-3Last home loss for the Patriots in Week 1 was 15 years ago back in 2000 vs Tampa Bay, 16-21. It was the 1st season of the Belichick era. Tom Brady did not play that year.

Digitalkarma · Answer

Pittsburgh Steelers Week 1 History since 2000SU: 9-6Home: 8-2Away: 1-4ATS: 6-9Home: 5-5Away: 1-4O/U: 10-5Home: 9-1Away: 1-4Last road trip for the Steelers in week 1 was in 2012 against the Broncos which resulted in a 19-31 loss. Prior to that, the Steelers got Tebow&#x27;d out of the playoffs which signaled a down period for the Steelers the next 2 seasons. they have been 1-3 in their last 4 week 1 openers. Last road win was in 2007 against the Browns in Mike Tomlin&#x27;s coaching debut.

porcelainfist · Answer

Jason Garrett was not a rookie head coach in 2011, as your numbers stated. He debuted in 2010 and won his first game.

https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010111408/2010/REG10/cowboys@giants#menu=gameinfo&tab=recap

Digitalkarma · Answer

I understand Garrett got his start as an interim coach but I would consider 2011 as his first official year as head coach , coaching his first week 1 game in a brand new season, not a week 10 game running Wade Phillips team. I think there is a difference.

GunShard · Answer

Good information. No one should blindly follow these, just take it like a grain of salt.

Digitalkarma · Answer

someone brought some of these trends back in another thread. guess i should update it a bit to reflect last season

in 2015

the home teams again went 10-6 SU just like the previous year and about 8-8 ATS closing line.

Home dogs were 4-4 in week 1 last season.

The Patriots did not cover but they won week 1 as defending champs that brings the overall record to 9-5-2 ATS and 14-2 SU

All 3 rookie coaches last season came away with SUATS wins(as home favorite and two as home dogs)

One takeaway: Home field has a slight edge in week 1. I wonder what this season will bring

NFL Week 1 Records Stats and Trends

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