NFL week 13

2 teams in the early slate are off back to back road games and a bye, meaning they haven't had the home cooking in a month. This has been a very profitable spot to me in NFL and one of them is a somewhat big play for me today

Bengals -3 3 units

Only reason it's not 4 is the fact Cincinnati has only beaten the worst teams in the NFL. They also have the next to worst red zone defense in the NFL only Dallas is worse... BUT, they also have the 3rd best red zone offense. And during the last 3 games they are a stellar 100% TDs on red zone attempts. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh who is 13th in red zone defense on the season, actually has regressed sharply and has the WORST rate over the last 3 games, allowing 89%. I feel like the Steelers have overachieved a bit and the regression is starting. Going with the Bungles in the jungle.

Falcons +1

This is the other team in that schedule spot that I like. Chargers had the Harbaugh bowl and KC up next and I'm not sure this east coast trip in between is ideal vs a rested team in the home dome. Just a standard 1 unit play

Good luck NBL.  

Like both.  GL

GL 

Texans -3.5

Stroud is having a major sophomore slump, Mixon was stuffed by the Titans last week, and Jags are off a bye which are all negatives, but the Jags are just on the fade list and they don't have the defense of Tennessee. Texans had 8 sacks and 3 takeaeays vs the Titans but got outgained by over 100 yards. Bit of a hopeful pick but if there's any team you can bounce back against its Jax

Cardinals +3.5

Over the last 3 games the Cards have the best red zone defense and Minnesota their one weakness is they don't get red zone stops (If you can't tell already red zone is a major focus in my capping methods for NFL) 27th in the NFL and allowing 80% last 3 games. Cards are a very pesky team who is often in games until the end and so a FG plus a hook has some value to me.

Washington -5.5

Lost 3 in a row but the Titans just won a game and I always fade bad teams off a win. Losing Sneed didn't hurt them last week but vs the Washington passing attack it might be different 

BOL  on your plays @NutinButtLove 

@NutinButtLove

 Bol today action

Good luck Butt

nice card , I am on chargers but GL