NFL Week 4

Bengals -4.5

You have to go back to September 2021 to find the last time the Panthers won 2 games in a row. Backup QBs on struggling teams often come in and win a game and everyone gets all excited about them and then the team reverts back to losing which as I said, is what the Panthers do. I don't put much stock into the 'old team' stuff. Burrow despite his teams recent play has accomplished a lot more in his youngish career than Dalton ever did, and the Raiders team the Panthers beat is actually awful. They were hideously outgained by the Ravens, have no run game at all 51 ypg and only beat Baltimore because the Ravens got stupid penalties, gave up a 3rd and 20 and blew a 10 point lead with bonehead playcalling at the end. They were in a totally different mood coming home after that high on the hog than the Bengals who are 0-3. If they don't get right this game it's basically season all but over.

Bears -3

Yikes, another woeful looking offense but this is the easiest defense they will have faced this far by far, with the Rams rush defense and pass defense both looking really weak, giving up the most rushing 1st downs in the NFL combined with the highest yards per completion in the league and allowing 72% completion percentage while the Bears defense being respectable enough to counter the depleted offense of the Rams

Jets -7.5

Even tho they got revenge for Payton's comments last year as 2.5 point dogs, I think looking at the Jets defense which is top of the league in sack percentage, facing a rookie QB off its first win and having a much more capable QB, they can again win by 10+. They have only allowed 2 ppg in the 4th quarter of games so far which helps a lot in avoiding any backdoor BS

Evening slate

49ers -10

I don't know how the 9ers lost last week but now they face a team with a pitiful offense ranking last in yards per completion and pass defense is the 9ers achilles heel. NE can't take advantage of that and SF is gonna be in foul humor after losing two in a row but they were both road games and last time they were at home they ripped through a Jets team that just almost shutout NE

Cardinals -2.5

Again I look to fade a rookie going on the road off a win. Daniels looks good but the defense is still woeful and you saw what happened when Arizona faced a bad defense last time (the Rams who have similar stats on d to Washington) they put up 41. They also played a tougher schedule with Buffalo and Detroit either side and they didn't lose either of those by more than one score. Ekeler has been an important piece for them as he catches all those screens and is a safety valve type player and him being out puts more pressure on Daniels to keep the offense moving with basically just him and McLaurin. No McBride for ARZ is a big negative too but I think Johnathan Gannon who used to coach in Philadelphia will have some good ideas on how to keep Washington contained.

Browns -2.5

This will be a slop fest but I think Cleveland with their better defense can outlast the Raiders because they can't run the ball and they look clueless on pass defense. Panthers were in the backfield stuffing the run and sacking or pressuring Minshew all game and Cleveland has more rushers than they do. And surely the Raiders are not going to continue to avoid the penalties that have been their identity forever. They have the least in the NFL which was the main reason the Ravens, who have the most, couldn't beat them. 

I won't touch the 49ers until Kyle Shanahan is gone. I don't know how he gets by year after year without getting the boot.

Don't be surprised if new England beats them. No excuse for last weeks meltdown against the hapless Rams a division game.

@TRAINOFTHOUGHT

 You're overreacting.

Adding

LA Chargers +7.5

Not a bad day, only two really bad picks Cards (and i was gonna take the Over there instead dangit) and Jets (where it screamed Under too... Again, dangit). Browns i just knew they wouldn't score at the end they're probably the only team in the NFL that wouldn't get in on the Raiders in a red zone situation. I really feel like the Browns brought so much bad karma on them signing Watson. Meanwhile Baker is living his best life in sunny Tampa.

What is with these teams scoring 10 points off the bat and then nothing after? Just zero... And how are the Raiders always getting so many calls now? Oh, that's right... Tom Brady is part of the organization now!

Anyway, on to SNF

Would be prudent to take the small profit and call it a day but I like this spot for Baltimore just a little. The Bills 3-0 record is vs the Cardinals who I think we can say are not a very good team after the last 2 games and getting waxed today, the Jags who are winless after 4, and Miami, the most overrated team in the NFL with the dumbest coach, who they owned anyway, and whose starting QB got hurt in the game after playing like trash anyway.

The Ravens, despite some injuries hitting the Oline are an excellent running team and will be a lot tougher out for the Bills than anyone they have faced so far. Their main issue is they lead the NFL in penalties per game.

But, when we get down to the end of the season, the league LOVES for things to be tight. We need Baltimore to get into the mix here and move up to .500. These night games are where Allen loves to give the ball away in the red zone, and they are also missing some guys on the defensive side of the ball, starting CB Taron Johnson got hurt week 1 which hasn't shown up yet because they played the Jags and Miami with no QB but if Baltimore can slow down the pass rush some there will be plays to be made on this defense which i think is vulnerable in the secondary.

Ravens -2.5 for me