NFL Week 5 Sunday Outlook(Early Games)
Chargers @ Giants (-3, 45)
After 4 weeks, I am really not quite sure what to make of these teams. My numbers and models point to the Chargers but you when you do the eye test and weigh the subjective factors, how many times do you go to the well with a Charger team who has underperformed the market pricing by 20.5 points thus far. The Giants are no better as they have underperformed by 24.5 points thus far. Both teams are 0-4 but when you bring adjusted Pythag to the equation, the Chargers numbers indicate they are on their way to a 7-9 season while the Giants are playing to the tune of 4-12. I suppose in the end I will take a small position and make a pure numbers grab on Chargers +3.5 but again, that will be an extremely small position.
Bills @ Bengals(-3.5, 39.5)
Based on forecasting models, the Bills would be an easy choice. These past couple of weeks they handled the Broncos at home and then went into Atlanta and took out the Falcons outright. They have outperformed the market by a total of 23 points thus far. That is all good news. Now the negatives. Thru all of their success, the Bills who are 3-1, have an adjusted season Pythag of only 7-9. That means they are essentially living off turnovers. Factoring in that turnovers are basically random, at what point will the tide turn? You are also asking the Bills to play yet another good game for the third time in a row with back to back road games before their Bye next week. On the flip side, you have the Bengals who are 1-3, but have an adjusted season Pythag of 9-7 which is the opposite end of the spectrum. What you have here is Regression indicators going opposite directions. Professional money hit the Bengals hard at the sendout and at some books the number flew thru the 3. All of this said, I cannot support the Bengals and lay a 3 hooked as the value has been fully extracted. So it now becomes a question of whether to back the Bills at a value price. Hmmm….another small position numbers grab on Bills +3.5. As for the total, I cannot ignore the Bills number one ranking in defensive efficiency. I had to make a significant subjective factor adjustment and made the total 40 up from my raw number of 36.5. Both of these teams have played to Unders when it comes to market performance. The Bills are -45 overall in totals performance while the Bengals come in at -37.5. Over is the right side I think, but I wont be invested.
Jets @ Browns(Pick, 39.5)
Next….
Jaguars @ Steelers(-8, 42.5)
Steeler Backers will be asked to pay a premium price here and those that know me know I don’t pay premium prices. On average, the Steelers have garnered 78% of public bets thru 4 weeks. The Jaguars have been backed only 38% on average. When you are presented with figures like that, it is easy to see that this line is shaded heavy towards the Steelers. I think the Jaguars keep this within the number. The Jaguars adjusted Pythag for the season is 9-7. The Steelers adjusted Pythag is 10-6 so it is not like these teams have swayed much from what the numbers indicate. Plus, we all know the Steelers don’t get too excited to play teams they consider to be lesser caliber opponents and they are off an impressive road win over the arch rival Ravens. Here is the one thing that causes me concern: The Jaguars are giving up 5.7 yards per rush attempt and that is not a good number when going up against the best RB in the league in LeVeon Bell. Also, at some point, this Steeler offense is going to wake up. They have too much talent not to. But when its all said and done, the Jags are still the better “stock” here. Regular Position on the Jags at +8.5.
Titans @ Dolphins(3, 43.5)
This will be the Dolphins first true home game as they have traveled more than any other team so far. They are off a miserable performance in London making that two very bad games in a row after beating the Chargers in LA. The Titans roll into South Beach without Marcus Mariota and will have journeyman Matt Cassel at the controls. The Dolphins were listed at -3 chalk back in the summer and now they are +3 dogs and keep in mind that summer line was made assuming Marcus Mariota would be playing in this game. The problem is that Mariota had been awful prior to his injury and I am not so sure there should be a major adjustment going from Mariota to Cassel. That said, the Fish have been an absolute mess these past two weeks. Was it the travel? Definitely could make an argument for it. But they got other problems as well mainly giving up 5.7 yards per play. I use five models, just added one based on efficiency. From an efficiency standpoint, the Titans should be 4.5 chalk. From a Stat Score Regression Model, the Titans are a whopping 7 point favorite and yes this includes the drubbling the Titans took in Houston last weekend. I’m sorry I cannot back the Dolphins here. In as much as I hate taking Road Chalk, I am on Titans here…..HEAVY.
49ers @ Colts(-1.5, 44.5)
Next…..
Cardinals @ Eagles(-6.5, 45)
I believe this game is priced accordingly side and total. The Cards have underperformed in the market but I believe that was warranted to the loss of David Johnson who was worth a lot more than books gave him credit for. I suppose some pro money will come in on Cards at 7, but I wont be a player.
Panthers @ Lions(-2.5, 42.5)
The Carolina team that I expected to make a splash this season finally showed up in Foxboro last weekend and took out the Patriots outright. And although I do not particularly like backing teams on the road off a big road win, I am heavy here on the Panthers ML. Sure, the Lions are 3-1. To some, they are playing well. But I am not buying it. Their Adjusted Pythag for this season only paints them as a 500 team while the Panthers Adjusted Pythag shows a 10-6 record. The Panthers also rank 8th in Big Play Differential while the Lions are a -4 and rank 23rd. My main model and best model which deals with Box Score Regression, spits out Panthers as a -4 favorite here and I will not ignore that. Again, Panthers ML Heavy.
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