NFL Week 5 Outlook(Late Games)

NFL Week 5 Sunday Outlook(Late Games)

Seahawks @ Rams(-1.5, 46)

Nothing on the Side here but this will most likely be the largest position I have ever taken on a Total in recent memory. I am Real Heavy here on OVER 46. I made this Total 52 and its actually quite simple as to why: The Yards Per Play Averages. The Rams are gaining on average 6.4 Yards Per Play and giving up 5.7 Yards Per Play. The Hawks are gaining 5.5 Yards Per Play and giving up 5.2. This Total will move North.

Ravens @ Raiders(-2.5, 39)

Again, nothing on the side. But I am buying Under 39. I made this total 40 with Derek Carr but without him, there is a huge drop off to EJ Manuel and to me warrants around a 4 point adjustment. I also really like a high ranking defensive efficiency team(Ravens 2^nd) against a backup QB. Regular Position UNDER 39.

Packers @ Cowboys(-2.5, 53)

While recreational players will be lining up to wager on the so called “Marquee Game”, I am sitting it out. Way too many question marks on both sides for me to get involved. You have Dallas in full fledged regression mode after outperforming the market last season against a Green Bay team whose home/road dichotomy is on opposite ends of the spectrum. Pass.

Chiefs @ Texans(1, 40.5)

Very hard to step in front of the KC freight train and I am not going to. I took a position on the Chiefs at Pick. I think the Chiefs should be FG favorites here based on the Yards Per Play numbers and also offensive and defensive efficiency. I am sure I will get some push back and I am certain there will be groups and other pros coming in on the Texans here. But I must trust my numbers at all times and to me, there is really nothing to adjust on KC. Their numbers dictate exactly who they are. Although that Texans score from last week showed  a 57-14 blowout over the Titans, the stat score in that game was just 26-19 and I highly doubt that KC is going to hand over the ball to the Texans 4 times like the Titans did. The one thing about Alex Smith is he always plays within himself and really never hurts his team from a turnover standpoint.  The Texans have undoubtedly found a QB in DeShaun Watson and he had a monster game last weekend. However, the more and more Watson plays, the more film teams can gather on him. In other words, the sledding will become tougher and I fully expect him to regress, as rookies do, off big performances like the one he had last week. Nothing on the Total.