Browns @ Texans(-10. 46.5)
I grabbed Browns +10 with a fairly healthy position. The Browns are -28 in overall market performance while the Texans come in at +30. The Browns will also be handing over the QB reigns to Kevin Hogan as Kizer just couldn’t handle that big step rookie QBs need to make going from college to pro. That’s one thing to like. Another is the Browns surprisingly high ranking #3 in Defensive Rushing Efficiency. Because of that, it will likely force DeShaun Watson to throw it more than he would like and although the Browns secondary is horrendous, are we totally sold yet on Watson? He has basically had one good game and that is it. To make matters worse for the Texans, they have a ton of players banged up including CBs Joseph, Jackson, and Johnson. They will be without JJ Watt and Whit Mercilus as well. My top 3 models all have the Browns @ +6.5 or better and I actually made the number Browns +6. The Browns are the right side here and this number will head south. Nothing on the total.
Patriots @ Jets(+9.5, 47.5)
Who would have thought the Jets would be tied with the Pats heading into this week 6 game? Certainly not the majority. Once again, the line is terribly inflated and books continue to make loyal Patriot backers pay a beyond premium price. Every single model I have spits out Jets as the right side here and I definitely agree. As long as books keep getting 8 out of every 10 tickets on Pats, the price will be enormous. Give me a regular position on the Jets and all of those points.
Dolphins @ Falcons(-13, 46)
Another game where the line is terribly inflated. Because of the Falcons overperformance in the market last season, one has to look at backing their opposition in every single game. And making matters better for investors was that the Dolphins were able to rebound from all of that early travel and take out the Titans at home last weekend. I made the number here Dolphins +7 giving me tons of line value. And here is another little tidbit: The Falcons travel to Foxboro next week for a rematch with the Patriots which makes this a great spot for the Dolphins. Dolphins HEAVY.
Lions @ Saints(-4, 50)
Nothing here. Line and total make sense with Stafford questionable.
Packers @ Vikings(3, 45)
I took a position on the Vikings here at +3. Even though this is a division rivalry game, it has to be tough on the Pack after their big win in Dallas last weekend. Although Bradford won’t play, Keenum has actually played well in his absence. The big problem for the Vikings and it definitely is concerning is that WR Diggs has been ruled out, a huge break for the Packers. So the Vikings are without Bradford, Diggs, and Cook, their 3 main offensive weapons. That said, I still made this line a pick and knowing that the Packers will definitely be the public darling here, the Vikings at home make total sense to me.
Bears @ Ravens(-6.5, 39.5)
Pass on side and total.
49ers @ Redskins(-11, 46.5)
Once again, we have a game with a double digit spread with the home favorite in a look ahead spot. Not sure how excited the Skins will be facing the 49ers when they have a big trip to Philly next weekend. I took a small position on the Niners here +11.
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