Rams @ Jaguars(-2.5, 42)
I had to really adjust my raw numbers on this game. Last week in the Jags big win at Pittsburgh, Bortles threw one pass in the second half. One. Right now, the Jaguars are in a great comfort zone as far their ground game goes and they continue to give Fournette all the carries he can handle. They are averaging 5 yards per rush attempt. By contrast, they also give up 5.4 yards per rush which makes it highly likely that the Rams utilize Gurley more than they have in previous games. Knowing this, I moved my raw total of 48 all the way down to 42 and that is exactly where this line sits. When books opened 1st half totals and had this 21.5, I had to grab Under and again that is largely based on believing that BOTH teams will attempt to run the ball in the 1st half, see the results, then make adjustments at half. As for the side, I love the way the Jags are playing right now. They have a leash on Bortles and unlike last season when he would give games away, this season they are playing within themselves. I laid 1.5 with a small position.
Bucs @ Cardinals(1, 45.5)
I really want to back Tampa here but I just cannot trust them on the road as bad as the Cardinals are. My line and total are pretty much in sync with the books here. Pass.
Steelers @ Chiefs(-4, 47)
With the Steelers getting blown out last week at home by Jacksonville and KC getting yet another cover, ALL of the value is on the Steelers here. I mentioned last week when I took a position on KC that I wasn’t inclined to step in front of their freight train. But this week is a different story. Their offense will meet their match against this Steeler Defense which is ranked 5th in the NFL in defensive efficiency. KC is actually -5.5 according to my models but often times, situations result in a significant adjustment which is what happened here. This Steelers offense is a sleeping giant and they will wake up at some point. I am banking on it being this week. Steelers ML HEAVY will be my largest position of the weekend.
Chargers @ Raiders(OFF)
Pass
Giants @ Broncos(-11.5, 38.5)
I LOVE the Giants here. First off, I usually ALWAYS auto lay on a double digit dog with the total set at 42 or lower. But that’s not the only thing. There is no way that the Broncos should be double digit favorites here even with all of the injuries the Giants have endured. No Beckham, no Marshall, no Shepard. They are missing their Center Richburg as well. I mention time and time again how books always overreact to injuries because they know that 99% of bettors overreact to injuries and that simple thing creates value in the market. I could care less that the Giants are 0-5. I bet numbers not teams. Everyone and their families here will be laying the number and backing the Broncos here. Not me…..give me Giants and all those points all day long because I am getting a ton of +EV.
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