Titans @ Browns(+6, 45)
I know it sounds like a broken record, but I am on the Browns here. Cleveland continues to disappoint in the market but as long as they are only getting 2 out of 10 tickets written on average, books will continue to stretch the margin and make players who are auto fading the Browns pay a beyond premium price. That said, the Titans have hardly been a market juggernaut as they too have been underperformers. Here is the key to this game: The Browns Rush Defense against the Titans Rush Offense. The Browns only allow 3 yards per rush attempt. If the Titans cannot run the ball, the Browns will be getting their first victory of the year. Speaking of which, I guarantee the Browns will be giving maximum effort here. They want to get that first win. I am on Cleveland plus the points and took a tiny slice of that ML as well.
Jaguars @ Colts(+3, 43.5)
I am on the Jaguars and laid the 3. While I don’t ever like being on short road favorites, I believe the value is on the Jags and here is why. First off, I made the number 6 and that is based on a variety of forecasting models and tweaking those numbers by what my eyes see, whether it be reading and getting information or watching All 22s. This Jaguar team that appeared to struggle last season, had a very good adjusted Pythag and those are the types of teams you want to back the following season. Secondly, the Jaguars have outperformed the market prices thus far this season coming in at +59. While I usually will fade those teams with high plus numbers, I have to back them here because the books have not had to adjust for the Jaguars yet, reason being, on average, the Jags are getting just 30% of tickets each game. The Colts on the other hand cannot be trusted. These second half fades are becoming legendary. From an efficiency standpoint and Statistical Boxscore standpoint, this game to me is not close on paper.
Saints @ Packers(+4, 47.5)
I am on Packers ML and this will be my largest position of the day. I love backing teams the week following an injury to a superstar and lets face it, the world knows that Green Bay is without Aaron Rodgers and those same people are saying Brett Who? Brett Hundley? Listen, Hundley has been with the Packers now for 3 years. He has had a whole week of practice and now gets a chance to showcase every thing he has learned from the 1st ballot hall of famer. Every single player on the Packers will be stepping up their game a couple of notches to account for Rodgers loss. The Saints got out to a huge lead last weekend and had to hold on to survive in beating the Lions 52-38. By the way, the stat score of that game was just 23-18 Saints and not this huge score that the public bettors may have perceived. Everyone has written the Packers off and that may very well be a likely scenario…..but I refuse to go against the Packers in this spot. EXTREMELY HEAVY Packers ML.
That is it for me this weekend. Normally, I have several positions but for this week, to me, it is just a bad board. Good luck!
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