Patriots/Bills o42.5 
I think this total is a bit low due to an overreaction to the current form of both offenses. Cam and the Patriots have looked atrocious for two weeks in a row now, but those performances came against some good defenses - the 7th and 8th ranked defense by DVOA. Last week vs. the 49ers was a particularly tough matchup for the Pats O. The strength of the Niners D is over the middle and the athleticism of Fred Warner and Co. made it tough for Cam to get going with throws over the middle of the field. And Cam struggles when throwing outside of the hashes. Add that to an unfavorable game script which saw the 49ers get out to a large early lead, which forced the Patriots to abandon the run game, and the lopsided result isn't overly surprising. But this week will be a step down in class vs. a Bills D that ranks 21st in DVOA. It's a much more favorable matchup for the Pats O too. The Bills rush D is dead last in rushing efficiency, so the Pats should be able to find some success on the ground which will take some of the burden off of Cam and the passing game that's looked out of sync in recent weeks.
On the other side, the Bills O is coming off 3 straight lackluster performances in which they've put up 16, 17, and 18 points. I thought the Bills offense was overvalued a few weeks back, but I think we're starting to get to a buy low point after the past 3 games. Take this past week vs. the Jets, for example. 18 pts vs. the Jets D doesn't look great until you dig into the box score and realize the Bills O put up 400+ yards of offense and didn't punt once. Penalties, turnovers, and missed field goals kept the Bill's score much lower than it should have been. And I think the Pats D may be just what the doctor ordered to get this offense on track. I think the Pats D is generally overvalued by the public due to their dominant performance early last year. But this isn't the same unit at all. They've lost a ton of pieces and overall lack the talent we're used to seeing on that side of the ball. The Pats D is 30th in pass D efficiency and 21st in run D efficiency. And they struggle to get pressure on the QB, ranking 23rd in pressure rate. I expect Allen to have time to throw in this one, which will allow him to exploit a bad passing D and return closer to his early-season form.
Overall, I think both offenses have favorable matchups here. The Bills should be able to pass the ball against a poor Pats pass D, and the Pats should be able to run the ball against a poor Bills run D. This total has come down a bit too much based on recent performances, I think we see a game in the mid to high 40s.
Hot Forum Topics
