Dolphins @ Chargers (-3.5, 45.5)
First off, there is no travel issue here as the Dolphins have been staying on the west coast for the past 10 days or so. Much will be said as to who has an advantage whether it be the Fish, who have been given a lot of extra time to prepare, or the Chargers, who now have a game under their belts. In 2016, both of these teams played pretty close to the market numbers so I don’t see any real advantages from that standpoint. I made the line Chargers -3 and soft juice, so there is some value on the visitors. Last week, I took some Chargers +3.5s and beat the market although I also had a little taste of the ML as well for a minor loss. I will take a small position on Dolphins. As for the total, I do think there will be some points scored but I doubt I get involved. I made the number 48 so not really enough value to get me to the window.
Jets @ Raiders (-13, 43.5)
I took some Jets early at +13.5, but it was more of a numbers grab and not a very big position by any means. The Jets underperformed in the market by 101 points in 2016 so clearly they are the side if any is to be taken. That said, they are not a very good football team. The Raiders took care of business in week one with a road win and cover in Tennessee, and I can’t help but think this shaded the line a few points. I am never interested in paying premium prices and that is exactly what you will be betting into should you decide to invest in the Raiders here. Nothing on the total.
Redskins @ Rams (-3, 46)
This line opened Rams -3 and has been going back and forth between -2.5 and -3. There is really no resistance on the 3 and to be honest, I anticipated that. Recreational players always react to what they see last and that has definitely opened up some value on the Skins. I have already taken some Redskins +3s and also took some ML as well. Nothing on the total.
Cowboys @ Broncos (+2, 42)
As it sits right now, there is really not enough value to step to the window in regards to the side and total. If this line would find its way to 3, then I might reopen the notebook and take a stronger look at the Broncos.
49ers @ Seahawks (-14, 42)
I took a very small position on 49ers here just because of the high spread number and the low total. For me, it is basically an automatic lay on any dog with a spread of 13 or more coupled with a total of 42 or less.
Packers @ Falcons (-3, 54)
I am on the Falcons . I always look back to recent meetings and see what the lines were to spot any adjustments and if there were adjustments, you must ask if they are warranted. When these two teams met in the playoffs last year, the line was Falcons -6. Now they are only laying 3. Why? What happened in the off season to warrant a FG adjustment? I suppose a case can be made that the Falcons have two new coordinators on both sides of the ball. But is that worth 3 points? And don’t forget, the Falcons dominated the Packers in that playoff game and it was over at halftime. Yes, Green Bay is in a double revenge situation losing both games to the dirty birds in 2016. Also, this will be the first game in the Falcons brand new stadium which has to be worth something to the Falcons side. The one thing that does concern me is that Atlanta overperformed in the market in a big, big way in 2016 and it was the primary reason I took a major position on the Bears last weekend. The Falcons should have lost that game. And recreational players definitely saw that lackluster performance. They also saw a great performance by Green Bay in defeating the Seahawks at Lambeau. But all in all, when you put everything together, it spells Falcons. I made the number -5.5 so I do believe I am getting a great price in backing the Birds. As for the total, I am inclined to look at the Over but 54 isn’t a number that will get me to the window. 53 or lower would get my interest.
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