Titans @ Jaguars (+1.5, 42)
For a team loaded with talent, the Titans were far from showing it in their Week 1 loss at home to the Raiders. This offense basically did nothing against a below average Raiders defense. However, the Stat Score (based on Yards Per Play & Yards Per Pass Attempt) indicated a much closer game with Oakland winning the box score 25-23 off from the 26-16 final. To be honest, I don’t put much thought into just 60 minutes of football but the Titans have got to start putting points on the board moving ahead. The Jaguars, meanwhile, went into Houston and dominated the Texans. I said before that this was a team to watch for the simple reason of how they underperformed their adjusted Pythag in 2016. But although the Jags won the game, they lost WR Allen Robinson for the season in the process. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette basically put this team on his shoulders rushing for over 100 yards in his debut. When it is all said and done, I think the wrong team is favored here and will definitely await a better number come Sunday, preferably +3. If not, I will likely take a position on the Jags ML.
Browns @ Ravens (-8, 39)
I will likely not do anything here. The Browns played Pittsburgh to the wire and the Ravens dominated the Bengals on the road. I made the Ravens a 9 point favorite with a total of 42. So not enough value for me to hop on anything. I suppose if this line got to 10, I would look further into the Browns because of how they underperformed in the market last season. Normally, teams that underperform like Cleveland did will always come back the next season and overperform and that was a main reason the Browns were my biggest position last weekend. But, going on the road is a different scenario.
Bills @ Panthers (-7.5, 43)
I like Carolina this season but I took a position on the 49ers last weekend and got beat. From a 2016 Power Rating standpoint, this game screams Carolina. However, I must also consider that this unit is just two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance so that obviously has to factor into this. Buffalo did what they had to do last weekend and beat the talentless Jets. I will stay away from the side here but I did grab an Over 43 ticket. I made the total 49 so to me that was too much value to pass up.
Patriots @ Saints (+6, 55.5)
I am well aware of the Patriots success off a loss in the Belichick/Brady era but I’m sorry I just cannot buy the Patriots here. I made the Pats a much shorter favorite here at 3 and I already grabbed the Saints at any +6.5s/7s. I do not think that the Saints are as talented as the Chiefs but there was just something about that Pats/Chiefs game that raised a lot of questions. I will mention again what I mentioned before and that is Brady is 40 now. We saw what happened to Manning when he turned 40. He doesn’t have Edleman. He doesn’t have Blount anymore. Thus far, my thinking on this Pats team has been correct and again I will pay to see if I am right. Nothing on the total here.
Cardinals @ Colts (+7, 44)
This is my largest position of the weekend and I have bought Colts at 7s/7.5s. I will make this short and simple: There is no way, as bad as the Colts are, that the Cardinals WITHOUT WORKHORSE DAVID JOHNSON, should be a 7 point road favorite here. Yes, the Colts were horrible last week. I get that. But the Cardinals were hardly impressive at Detroit last week in that 35-23 loss.
Eagles @ Chiefs (-6, 47.5)
Both teams are coming off impressive road wins. I wont be on any sides here but I do think this game will provide great information going forward. Alex Smith will not have a game like he did last week and I am fairly certain that Kareem Hunt will regress as well. Yes, the Eagles went into DC and beat the Skins last week but I am not sure if this is a team that is capable of putting together two solid road games. I do think there may be some value on the Under and I will get involved at some point looking for 48.5. If not, I will just take a smaller position.
Vikings @ Steelers (-5.5, 45)
The Steelers were hardly impressive on the road in Cleveland last week while the Vikings were very impressive in a home win over New Orleans. However, the Vikings are on a short week of prep and that is definitely a problem here. I am not too fond of the Vikings past home/road dichotomy and I believe Pittsburgh is the right side here. I am a buyer at -5.5.
Bears @ Bucs (-7, 43)
I loved the way the Bears played the Falcons last week and they nearly pulled off an outright upset in the process. The problem here is that the Bucs got some extra prep time for the Bears in lieu of their cancelled game last week due to Hurricane Irma. While I had a rather large position on the Bears last week, I cannot back them here. But at 7, I can’t back the Bucs either.
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