NFL Wild Card: Focus On Dogs

NFL YTD 14-8 +4.7 units

2* 2-2 -0.5 units

1* 12-6 +5.2 units

I improved to 14-8 on the season with a 2-1 record in the final weekend.  One of my keys in the post-season is to ignore home field advantage as it is, in my opinion, becoming irrelevant.  The playoffs are also where teams with impressive but misleading SU records get exposed. So.....

Sunday:

1* Packers +4 1/2

Green Bay is better than its record.  Five of its six losses came in the brutal NFC North.  Had GB been in the East like Philly, its record might be the same as the Eagles.  The Packers defense is much improved this year with the only weakness being the two cornerbacks.  The QB matchup is close to even and both teams have tremendous RBs.  I think it is overwhelmingly likely this game goes to the wire so 4 1/2 is compelling value.

Opinion only;

Broncos +9  (will likely be upgraded to full play as I watch line movement)

Monday:

2* Rams +3 (-135)

Minnesota has escaped with close wins all season.  They have looked to me like a prime candidate for "one and done" in the post-season.  They were exposed in last week's blowout in Detroit.  The Rams have overachieved all year, have a great coach.  They won five in a row down the stretch, including a win over the Bills, before the meaningless final week loss.  They held three straight opponents to single digits in that stretch.  The Rams beat Minnesota during the regular season.  LAR started 1-4 and came back from the dead to get here.  Finally, Stafford is a lot more battle-tested in the post-season than Sam Darnold.

Home teams last wild card went 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS

that 6th loss for GB was against the Eagles, on a neutral field. Now they have to play in Philly, and the Eagles basically had a bye week.

Watsons done.....

The Packers are not good. 
they are one and done and probably will get worked over. 

Packers could barely beat the bears to avoid playing the Eagles. Jordan Love was injured. I think they lose by 10. 

@Griswold1

 Where are the Texans? Texans have a better shot at winning than Denver, Green Bay or the Rams

Texans +7500 to win Super Bowl 

@buffer

 Texans are not good 

@7out

 Texans are not good and they don't regularly Cover

Just donate that money to charity.

Literally this!

I put some change on Denver to win the Superbowl at +25000 before the season began. 

Good luck Griswold.  

Since I'm getting a lot of gas for these picks, I'll point out some historic trends.  (I focus much more in fundamentals but when trends back your fundamental pick, it adds to the case.)

On my 2* pick, teams that played the Lions the previous week are 7-17 ATS.  This precise scenario played out this year when Minnesota lost SU to the Rams the week after playing Detroit.  Also, wild card favorites that didn't make the playoffs the prior year are 12-29 AT, a situation that covers the Vikings, although the way the line is moving they might not be favored by game time.

As for GB, a solid angle the last few years is to play them when they are a dog.  LaFleur is 24-12 ATS as a dog and 5-1 ATS when a dog by more than 3.   I'm not necessarily arguing GB wins.  But I think the talent on the two teams is very close and 4 1/2 is a lot of points in a tight matchup.

On the Broncos opinion, the number are against me as big wildcard faves have a spectacular record.  And I don't like rookie QBs in the playoffs.  I may not pull the trigger and might leave it as an "opinion."  

The Rams pick is my strongest of the season and I was tempted to up my wager and make it a 3* but I'll stand pat where I am 

GL 

@buffer

Texans will not be able to run the ball on Chargers and Collins is all the got for WR so Harbaugh will ensure he is taken out.    Chargers by 7

Texans are one of those teams who will block for the running back but let pass rushers run by them to get to the quarterback. The offensive line are a bunch of oddballs

Stroud has struggled vs man to man defense this year.  Chargers play zone more than any team in the league.  You can also run on the Chargers (14th in rush defense) and I believe Mixon will be in for a decent game.  Texans at home have a great shot at winning.