Posted:
#1
Same system as last year - posted record here on Covers was 26-18 on sides and 8-5 on totals. Overall record 34-23 (59.7%) - not sure on the units, but I believe a good majority of the higher unit plays won. So, I'm guessing units were around +15 to +20 (if anyone wants to check that, please let me know if you do). The unposted record was better than the above 60%, and I expect these plays to hit upwards of 65% (with a relatively high statistical significance). I know that number seems crazy, but it's what I expect, statistically. Under 60% would honestly shock me. I don't say that facetiously or arrogantly, I just want to fully disclose my expectations. Please wait a few weeks to see how the plays are doing before criticizing and attacking the previous expectation.
Again, full disclosure here - the system ideally would need four weeks of data to become become fully operational, but I'm running these off of only three; I think that's enough for at least above average accuarcy - but long term would not expect these to hit at the +65% like the rest of the season's games. I don't have enough data to give a more exact expectation for these, but I'd like to guess somewhere between 50% and 65%.
Enough said, below are the picks.
Week 4 Plays:
Tampa Bay -3 (+100)
Detroit -3 (-105)
New York Jets +4.5 (-110)
Chicago/Detroit Over 47.5 (-110)
All of the above are 1 unit plays. There may be plays involving the Denver/Oakland games next week, and will run the projections on those after tonight's game.
The following are the system's projections for the games. Some projections below will seem to necessitate a play (i.e. the NYG/KC game), but the plays are not based on these projected scores. They're based on the projected stats that underly the scores. I post them just as a reference for trends, patterns, etc, although they will usually be fairly accurate (in the absence of an unusual amount of fluke plays - pick 6's, red zone fumbles, special teams touchdowns, etc). Last year, teams projected to win actually ended up winning somewhere in the high 70 percents I believe. If someone wants to thread through last year's posts for an exact number, please post it when/if you do. Also, for more explanation/color on the score/ATS-play disparity or any other questions, I answered a good number throughout the year last season if you don't mind searching back for those threads - there's only one thread per week. I don't have near the free time I did previously, so will have a harder time getting in-depth on topics or questions brought up here, but will do my best to answer any and all.
Sorry for the long-winded post - and again, if it came across as arrogant or condescending, I promise that wasn't and is never my intention. Best of luck to everyone this year!
Week 4 Projections:
San Francisco 24 @ St. Louis 19
Pittsburgh 17 @ Minnesota 22
Seattle 20 @ Houston 20
New York Giants 10 @ Kansas City 25
Baltimore 23 @ Buffalo 28
Cincinnati 18 @ Cleveland 16
Arizona 14 @ Tampa Bay 27
Chicago 23 @ Detroit 28
Indianapolis 28 @ Jacksonville 16
New York Jets 19 @ Tennessee 20
Dallas 28 @ San Diego 29
New England 21 @ Atlanta 22
Miami 17 @ New Orleans 24
Again, best of luck to all this week and this season
Again, full disclosure here - the system ideally would need four weeks of data to become become fully operational, but I'm running these off of only three; I think that's enough for at least above average accuarcy - but long term would not expect these to hit at the +65% like the rest of the season's games. I don't have enough data to give a more exact expectation for these, but I'd like to guess somewhere between 50% and 65%.
Enough said, below are the picks.
Week 4 Plays:
Tampa Bay -3 (+100)
Detroit -3 (-105)
New York Jets +4.5 (-110)
Chicago/Detroit Over 47.5 (-110)
All of the above are 1 unit plays. There may be plays involving the Denver/Oakland games next week, and will run the projections on those after tonight's game.
The following are the system's projections for the games. Some projections below will seem to necessitate a play (i.e. the NYG/KC game), but the plays are not based on these projected scores. They're based on the projected stats that underly the scores. I post them just as a reference for trends, patterns, etc, although they will usually be fairly accurate (in the absence of an unusual amount of fluke plays - pick 6's, red zone fumbles, special teams touchdowns, etc). Last year, teams projected to win actually ended up winning somewhere in the high 70 percents I believe. If someone wants to thread through last year's posts for an exact number, please post it when/if you do. Also, for more explanation/color on the score/ATS-play disparity or any other questions, I answered a good number throughout the year last season if you don't mind searching back for those threads - there's only one thread per week. I don't have near the free time I did previously, so will have a harder time getting in-depth on topics or questions brought up here, but will do my best to answer any and all.
Sorry for the long-winded post - and again, if it came across as arrogant or condescending, I promise that wasn't and is never my intention. Best of luck to everyone this year!
Week 4 Projections:
San Francisco 24 @ St. Louis 19
Pittsburgh 17 @ Minnesota 22
Seattle 20 @ Houston 20
New York Giants 10 @ Kansas City 25
Baltimore 23 @ Buffalo 28
Cincinnati 18 @ Cleveland 16
Arizona 14 @ Tampa Bay 27
Chicago 23 @ Detroit 28
Indianapolis 28 @ Jacksonville 16
New York Jets 19 @ Tennessee 20
Dallas 28 @ San Diego 29
New England 21 @ Atlanta 22
Miami 17 @ New Orleans 24
Again, best of luck to all this week and this season
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